July pattern flip!

 

Currently the western Pacific is basically blocked. So, this will help support and build that ridge developing over the Southwest CONUS.  This will allow the heat dome that was over the Eastern CONUS last week, to build into the Rockies, Plains, into Canada.  While this heat transfer takes place thunderstorms will continue to blow up east of the Rockies throughout the week,

By next week the upper-level ridge and heat dome will be well established over the Rockies into the Plains.   This pattern is going to stick with us for most of July.

Surface chart, radar and satellite.

 

The midlevel low pressure is pulling away; radar shows the rain currently over southern New England is pulling east with it. There is some airmass convection over western Pennsylvania. We could see some rain showers pop up across Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic during the day. But all in all, most shouldn’t see them. The clouds over the region will be clearing up during the day.  So, all in all, it a fairly nice day with seasonal temperatures and lower humidity.

Skies will continue to clear during the overnight. Wednesday will start basically as a rinse-and-repeat, with a few isolated showers. Then a warm front will approach during the day, later Wednesday into Thursday the warm front will be moving through the region. Ahead of and along the front there will be an increasing risk, for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a chance for gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning. The tornado risk will be low, but not zero. This will allow temperatures and humidity to climb a little. Thursday and Friday will be warmer with higher humidity, (it won’t be anything like what it was last week).  All of this will be ahead of a slowly approaching cold front dropping down from Canada.   This cold front will drop through the region on Friday. Bringing rain and thunderstorms. Again, some of these storms could be strong to severe. The cold front should be pressing south by Saturday. Most of the region should be much cooler and dry. But depending on where the front ends up, it’s possible for lingering showers and thunderstorms across the far southern parts of our region. But those with the greatest chance for all of this will be to our south.

 

Tropical Atlantic

The Pacific has been quite active. While the Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, in spite of sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin being above the historical average, strengthening El Nino conditions are creating unfavorable atmospheric conditions with disruptive wind shear and dry Saharan air.  We are bound to see something develop as we move forward. So, keep an eye on the Atlantic, as storms could quickly develop.

 

 Have a great day