When will we see a prolonged warm-up?

 

Chuck Lewis has told me, some of y’all are asking when we’re going to see a prolonged warm up?  I also want to thank Chuck for being a big help in posting my blog post onto Facebook!

 The pattern is setting up to be extremely active.  We have a ridge sitting off the Southeast. So, this is allowing for the main storm track to come out of the southern Pains and up through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

The next few weeks are going to see several storms bring impacts into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast.

A look at the teleconnections

 La Nina conditions emerged during December 2024. The La Nina signature across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean was weak then and it is still weak. It still looks like we will see this weak La Nina to an ENSO neutral state by early spring. So, as they have all winter, the other teleconnections will have more sway in the pattern.

 

The North Atlantic Oscillation. Has been positive but it looks to go sharply negative. This will tramp down on that ridge, allowing the main storm track to push south.  So, this is a signal for cooler temperatures along with the overall pattern becoming wetter for the eastern US. It also increases the risk for high latitude blocking up near Greenland, which increases the snow chances and possibilities for nor’easters.  

 

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also going negative.  The AO is a good way to monitor where the coldest air is and where it will be going. A Positive AO typically has the cold air locked up to our north. When it goes into negative values, we usually see a push of this cold air spreading south across the U.S.

 

The Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) has been predominantly negative this winter, when looking at the long range it looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. With a negative pattern in place, generally we see troughing in the West and ridging over the east. So, this is a warm signal. The PNA interacting with the other teleconnections is one of the reasons for the active pattern with up and down temperatures.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the NULL phase this is commonly referred to as the Circle of Death (COD). When it’s in the COD, the MJO exerts very little influence on the overall pattern. So other teleconnections take the driver’s seat.  When looking at the phase diagram we can see The MJO will be headed to the cold phases of 8, 1 and 2.

 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is currently negative. This generally means we have a ridge out west with overall troughing in the east. This allows for that cold air to side out of Eurasia to slide down the ridge bringing cold air to the central and eastern U.S.  But looking at the diagram we can see it looks to turn positive.  So, we could end up seeing the ridge in the west weaken enough, to allow for more of a zonal flow (west to east) where cold air gets shut down and more of that Pacific air mass getting into the pattern, that would battle that negative AO and NAO. Resulting in a bit of a milder pattern.  The EPO could throw a monkey wrench into the pattern the other teleconnections are hinting at.

 

 

We look to see the polar vortex split, with one piece heading toward Europe and Asia and the other heading into eastern North America. If this is the case, then another longer duration arctic blast is looking likely.

 

 

My thoughts.

Currently all the teleconnections with the exception of the negative PNA are showing a cold signal moving forward. But down the road the EPO does have that monkey wrench in hand. But over the next few weeks it looks to turn sharply colder, with the negative PNA keeping the pattern very active. So, we should see enough cold that snow events are very likely.  

Here are the NOAA Temperature Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Ending Feb 14

Is showing below average temperatures

 

8 to 14 Day Ending Feb 18

Is showing the Northeast is below average with the Middle Atlantic warmer with temperatures near average, but it also shows a lot of colder air expanding across the Northern and Central US. This should generally continue to drop into the Midwest and eastern CONUS.

 

 

So, I think we will see temperatures progressively get much colder than the CPC temperature outlook is showing.

Here is the Euro Long range temperature and snowfall forecast from WeatherBell. While we can’t take this verbatim, they are showing the models general thoughts on the rest of winter. I don’t what you to focus on the exact numbers the model is showing, but just that the model is showing more cold and snow is to come. Based on what I’ve been looking at I do think the Euro does have a good handle on the overall pattern.  

Temperature

 

 

Snowfall

 

Based on what I’ve pointed out, I don’t think winter is done by a long shot. The polar vortex has been wobbling around a lot this winter, that looks to continue, So the 2^nd half of February into March could end up similar to what we saw back in 2014. Going forward could be very volatile. I just don't see any long duration warmups over the next several weeks. Could the Northeast see it’s first white Easter in a very long time?  

 

 

February 5th, 2025

 

High pressure in charge means today is calm but cold, but we have a couple of systems we’re going to have to deal with this week and the weekend.

This high pressure will be pushing east as our next system pushes east out of the Ohio Valley. This system will be a quick mover, it won’t be a huge system, but it will bring quite a bit of impact for many of us. The General timing looks to be a mix moving into Southwest Pennsylvania around Late this evening more likely around Midnight. This will continue to advance southwest to northeast over the region during the overnight and tomorrow morning, reaching Maine late morning or early afternoon on Thursday.  

For southern Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic south and east of I-95 this snow, sleet, ice mix will change over to rain later during the overnight. But it won’t take much ice to make a problem for the Thursday morning commute. For much of Pennsylvania into the New York Southern Tier and Northwest New Jersey, ice accretion will be a bigger deal, this will be especially true for places like the Laurel Highlands. These areas should see a bust of snow on the leading edge of the precipitation. But as that warm nose works in and overruns the cold air at the surface, the P-type will change to sleet and then freezing rain. Ice accretion of ¼” to ½” could cause problems for powerlines and tree branches leading to power outages.

For the areas in New York State south of the Mohawk Valley, central Hudson Valley and Southern New England snow will see sleet and freezing rain mixing in on the backside, this will cut down of snow totals. Which look to be generally 1-4 inches, along the coast of southern New England out onto Cape Cod an inch or so is likely. For Long Island across central New Jersey a coating to maybe an inch.  These areas could pick up around 1/10^th to 2/10^th. Southern New Jersey and across southern Delaware and southern eastern Maryland it should stay plan rain.

For New York State north of the Mohawk Valley, and across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine this will be primarily an all-snow event (but there is a chance some could see a bit of mix). Snow amounts look to be generally 2-5 inches, with some seeing amounts of 6-8 or 9 inches.  Snow amounts look to be a bit less over northern Maine with 1-4 inches possible.

The bulk of the precipitation should only last 5-6 hours as the storm moves across the region, with any snow over Maine ending during Thursday late evening. Friday will see breezy conditions. Then we look to see a very similar storm hit the region for the Weekend.

I will be posting on my general ideas on the pattern going from here forward, later today.

 

 

February 4th, 2025

 

Today is colder than yesterday, as a cold front continues to drop through the region, temperatures will continue to drop behind the front, northwest winds are breezy but conditions are basically tranquil, with most of the region being dry with the exception of light lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario.

Tomorrow should be similar to today, just colder as high pressure briefly sets up, then changes start Wednesday night ahead of our next weather maker arriving from the west. We will see a warm front attached to low pressure to our north approach and move through Wednesday night into Thursday. We’re in a fast-flowing zonal flow (west to east) so this will be a fast-moving system. With the cold air in place things will start as mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

This mix should move into southwest Pennsylvania and across eastern Maryland around midnight on Thursday morning. Then during the rest of the overnight, the precipitation will be moving southwest to northwest. Making it into Maine by the afternoon. The leading edge of this will likely see a quick burst of snow, that could result in a coating to a couple of inches of snow, before the transition to sleet and freezing rain.  

Those south and east of the I-95 corridor will likely see a fairly fast change over the rain. But we will have warm air aloft with cold air at the surface, this sets up the likely chance for ice issues. We could see an Ice storm across Pennsylvania into the southern tier of New York State, northwest New Jersey and north and west of the I-95 Corridor, Ice accretion could be moderate to heavy. then there will be a change over to rain. with the ice will come the increased risk of power outages. How far north this warm nose (warm air overrunning cold air) gets will be the key to how much ice falls north of these areas. But central New York State into southern New England could see light to moderate ice accretion.  The northern half of New York State and northern into central New England look to see more in the way of snow, with a general 2-5 inches of snow with some areas seeing 4-8 inches, but some mix of sleet and freezing rain is likely, with light ice accretion possible.

The trailing cold front will be moving through later Thursday into Friday. Colder air will be coming in, but most of the precipitation should be over by then. We will likely see some lake effect downwind of the Big Lakes.

Over the Weekend, another system looks to come through. This one could be very similar to the one for Thursday, including bringing ice to the same areas seeing it this week.