Tuesday, February 4, 2025

February 4th, 2025

 






Today is colder than yesterday, as a cold front continues to drop through the region, temperatures will continue to drop behind the front, northwest winds are breezy but conditions are basically tranquil, with most of the region being dry with the exception of light lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario.

Tomorrow should be similar to today, just colder as high pressure briefly sets up, then changes start Wednesday night ahead of our next weather maker arriving from the west. We will see a warm front attached to low pressure to our north approach and move through Wednesday night into Thursday. We’re in a fast-flowing zonal flow (west to east) so this will be a fast-moving system. With the cold air in place things will start as mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

This mix should move into southwest Pennsylvania and across eastern Maryland around midnight on Thursday morning. Then during the rest of the overnight, the precipitation will be moving southwest to northwest. Making it into Maine by the afternoon. The leading edge of this will likely see a quick burst of snow, that could result in a coating to a couple of inches of snow, before the transition to sleet and freezing rain.  

Those south and east of the I-95 corridor will likely see a fairly fast change over the rain. But we will have warm air aloft with cold air at the surface, this sets up the likely chance for ice issues. We could see an Ice storm across Pennsylvania into the southern tier of New York State, northwest New Jersey and north and west of the I-95 Corridor, Ice accretion could be moderate to heavy. then there will be a change over to rain. with the ice will come the increased risk of power outages. How far north this warm nose (warm air overrunning cold air) gets will be the key to how much ice falls north of these areas. But central New York State into southern New England could see light to moderate ice accretion.  The northern half of New York State and northern into central New England look to see more in the way of snow, with a general 2-5 inches of snow with some areas seeing 4-8 inches, but some mix of sleet and freezing rain is likely, with light ice accretion possible.

The trailing cold front will be moving through later Thursday into Friday. Colder air will be coming in, but most of the precipitation should be over by then. We will likely see some lake effect downwind of the Big Lakes.

Over the Weekend, another system looks to come through. This one could be very similar to the one for Thursday, including bringing ice to the same areas seeing it this week.

 

 

 

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