February 5th, 2025

 

High pressure in charge means today is calm but cold, but we have a couple of systems we’re going to have to deal with this week and the weekend.

This high pressure will be pushing east as our next system pushes east out of the Ohio Valley. This system will be a quick mover, it won’t be a huge system, but it will bring quite a bit of impact for many of us. The General timing looks to be a mix moving into Southwest Pennsylvania around Late this evening more likely around Midnight. This will continue to advance southwest to northeast over the region during the overnight and tomorrow morning, reaching Maine late morning or early afternoon on Thursday.  

For southern Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic south and east of I-95 this snow, sleet, ice mix will change over to rain later during the overnight. But it won’t take much ice to make a problem for the Thursday morning commute. For much of Pennsylvania into the New York Southern Tier and Northwest New Jersey, ice accretion will be a bigger deal, this will be especially true for places like the Laurel Highlands. These areas should see a bust of snow on the leading edge of the precipitation. But as that warm nose works in and overruns the cold air at the surface, the P-type will change to sleet and then freezing rain. Ice accretion of ¼” to ½” could cause problems for powerlines and tree branches leading to power outages.

For the areas in New York State south of the Mohawk Valley, central Hudson Valley and Southern New England snow will see sleet and freezing rain mixing in on the backside, this will cut down of snow totals. Which look to be generally 1-4 inches, along the coast of southern New England out onto Cape Cod an inch or so is likely. For Long Island across central New Jersey a coating to maybe an inch.  These areas could pick up around 1/10^th to 2/10^th. Southern New Jersey and across southern Delaware and southern eastern Maryland it should stay plan rain.

For New York State north of the Mohawk Valley, and across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine this will be primarily an all-snow event (but there is a chance some could see a bit of mix). Snow amounts look to be generally 2-5 inches, with some seeing amounts of 6-8 or 9 inches.  Snow amounts look to be a bit less over northern Maine with 1-4 inches possible.

The bulk of the precipitation should only last 5-6 hours as the storm moves across the region, with any snow over Maine ending during Thursday late evening. Friday will see breezy conditions. Then we look to see a very similar storm hit the region for the Weekend.

I will be posting on my general ideas on the pattern going from here forward, later today.