February 12th, 2025

 

In addition to the storm later today and Thursday, we look to have two or three more in the pipe-line.

The first storm is exiting the region, it looks like generally my forecast verified. Our next storm is organizing over the Ozarks. This is going to move over the Great Lakes into Canada, this track will keep our region on the warmer side of the Low. This storm approaching is very complex, we’re going to have a severe weather outbreak for the South, a lot of snow across the Upper Midwest into Canada and a mix in between the two.

Here is a look at the GFS from Tropical Tidbits.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here in the Northeast, we will start out with some snow, then we will see a quick change over to sleet and then freezing rain. Then when the warm air makes its way down to the surface, a large part of the Northeast will change over to rain.  Then on the backside as cold air filters back in rain will change back over to some light snow across parts of Northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New England.

 

Far northern New York State Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and northern Maine will see the most snow with Northern New York State, Northern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire seeing 3-8 inches of snow. With northern Maine seeing 6-12+ inches. For the rest of New York State, the Tug Hill, Northern into Central Adirondacks down to around I-90, and the Champlain Valley 1-3 inches of snow will be possible. The Southern Adirondacks could see 3-6 inches of snow.  The rest of New York State will likely only see a dusting to an inch. The Catskills into the Poconos could see 1-4 inches.  

Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire and Southwest and Coastal Maine and along with western and northern Massachusetts look to see a general 1-3 inches with the Berkshires seeing perhaps 2-4 inches.  The Greens could see 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts.

For the rest of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey Southeast New York State, including New York City and Long Island, this will be primarily a rain event with perhaps a bit of snow to start things off, before a chance over to some mix, before the change to plain rain.

With the exception of far northern areas, the region will see sleet and freezing rain. This will make driving not so fun!

For New York State south of I-90, Central and southern New England, most of Pennsylvania northern Maryland and northern New Jersey a glaze to 1/10” with a chance for localized slightly higher amounts of Ice, across northern New York State and central New England. substantial ice accretion is possible for parts of the Appalachian Mountains, Allegheny Mountains and Laurel Highlands. Parts of the Adirondacks, Southern Vermont, Southern New Hampshire and Western Maine could see 0.20” to 0.30+”.

This is a fast-moving storm so this will be wrapping up Southwest to Northeast on Thursday, with the storm exiting the region on Friday. Cold air will comeback in behind the storm as well as strong gusty winds for Thursday night and Friday.  These Northwesterly winds will bring Lake effect snow Southeast of Lake Ontario for Thursday night and Friday, a general 4-8 inches closer to the lake, with localized areas of 12+ inches possible.  Temperatures won’t stay super cold with temperatures trying to modify Friday evening/night.

 

Saturday will see our next storm approach; this one will track farther south and east than the departing storm. This will mean snow for northern Pennsylvania, New York State, Northern New Jersey and New England. By late Saturday evening into the Overnight, a warm front will mean warm air will be surging north. So, snow over Northern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, the Southern Tier of New York State into Southern New England will change to a mix and then over to some rain. The warm nose will continue to push north on Sunday, this will change snow over New York State, Vermont and New Hampshire over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, the overrunning warm air will eventually even make it to Northern Maine.  Later Sunday into Monday an arctic cold front will slam into the region. Scattered snow showers can be expected for Monday. Lake Effect snow will also be falling Monday through at least Wednesday.

Mid Next Week, we will be tracking another storm. This one very well could end up a major storm, as it rides that arctic boundary. This could come up the Coast or it could stay just to our South and head out to Sea.

The next couple of weeks look to stay active.