February 18th, 2025

 

The week ahead.

Those South East of  Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill picked up another two to three feet yesterday and overnight. 

The surface chart is showing low pressure well to our south, with a few shortwave troughs moving across the region.

 

 

 

Winds are still out of the Northwest. Away from Lake Ontario, most of the region is dry with only a few hit and miss flurries here and there, with some of us seeing partly cloudy skies and some seeing more in the way of sunshine. The winds aren’t as windy as they were yesterday, but they are still gusty. Temperatures are warmer than yesterday, but they are still below average across the region.

Tonight, the lake effect will continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario; our temperatures are going to be very cold. Tomorrow will see the lake effect winddown. With the rest of the region staying dry.  Then we will be watching a storm approaching to the south and west.

The later Wednesday into Thursday storm is going to be too far south, to bring the Middle-Atlantic and Northeast a major snowstorm. We needed to have a phase between the northern and southern aspects of the storm, due to several little factors, the phase didn’t happen. I’ve drawn these factors on the GFS 500mb chart.  

Thursday, far southern New Jersey, Southern Delaware and southern Maryland, likely south of DC should see some light snow, one to two inches, with maybe a few seeing as much as three inches. DC metro could see a few snow showers. The eastern tip of Long Island could see a few snow showers as well. The Cape could see some light snow, but the Offshore Islands will have the best chance of seeing one to two maybe three inches. For the rest of the region this will be a swing and a miss.

Friday high pressure will build in, behind the storm, we will have northwest winds, with lake effect snow developing downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Temperatures are going to still be cold.  

Saturday we will start to see a warming trend, along with generally calm conditions.  This warming trend continues into Sunday, most of the region should stay dry. On Monday a weak disturbance will pass over southeast Canada and the northern Northeast. This will end the warming trend, and temperatures will fall back to seasonal levels. This disturbance could bring snow showers across northern New York State and Northern New England. Tuesday another area of weak low pressure will approach, this one looks to track slightly south of the first one, so this could bring some snow from the northern tier of Pennsylvania, across New York State, and New England.