The 2nd storm will be larger and stronger than the 1st one.

I won't be posting tomorrow as I will be away. But I will try to post on the Midweek storm tomorrow evening/night. So, I want to make this post now.

Here is the latest trends and my latest thoughts on the storm for later Wednesday and Thursday.

Currently we have energy coming into the Pacific Northwest. This is going to drop south and east move over the Rockies then into the Plains. For here it will move north and east heading for the Great Lakes. The trough will become negative tilted, so the storm will deepen over the Plains as it heads for the Great Lakes.

This will be a Western Runner cutting up over the Great Lakes, so most of the snow will be on the western and northern side of the Low, with those south and east of the low, dealing with warm air evection. This would place the highest snow amounts across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes and Canada where several inches of snow will be possible. So, with warm air aloft sleet will be an issue, for a large part of the Northeast.

When we look at the latest runs of the GFS (American) and ECMWF (Euro). They look very similar to each other, but the Euro is just a bit farther west than the GFS.  

Pennsylvania could start out with a little snow, before the change over to sleet and freezing rain

The storm is trending warmer; this means even far northern parts of the region will end up seeing a mix of sleet and freezing rain at some point. So, snowfall totals will likely be lower than what I said earlier today. Here is a look at the general timing of the storm advancing through our region along with the P-type. If the storm trends even farther west snow amounts over northern New York State and northern New England would end up with very little snow.

This isn’t a forecast, only the model’s idea at this time. We will have to watch the trends and see how this evolves.

 

That's it for now.