February 13th, 2025

 

This is late, had to do a lot to get ready for this evening’s flash freeze.

Today is a rain/mix/snow mess with much milder temperatures.

We have an area of low pressure is north of Lake Ontario heading across Southeastern Canada, attached to the low is a cold front over Western New York State and Western Pennsylvania, this front will continue to push east today. The radar shows all the precipitation over Northern New York State and Northern New England, With the rest of the region clearing out. This north to south clearing will continue. We also have an area of low pressure over central New Jersey, with an attached warm front on the Coast. The cold front approaching from the west will push all of this out of here. Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region, freezing wet and slush covered surfaces. With the front will come very gusty winds.

With the warm temperatures and melting snow, locally dense fog will be an issue for some of y’all.

This evening through Valentine's Day afternoon, lake effect snow will be falling Southeast of Lake Ontario. The lake snow could be heavy at times. Areas like Syracuse could see 6-12+ inches under the most persistent bands, with 2 to 6 inches for areas outside of that. Friday midafternoon into Friday night the lake snow bands will lift north toward the Tug Hill. The lake effect will be weakening as it moves north.  During Friday high pressure will be setting up overhead. Providing a quiet day for those away from the Big Lakes, with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

  

The storm for this weekend

Saturday will see that high pressure start to push east, ahead of another approaching storm.  

Low pressure will form over the southern Plains, and then ride along a dip in the Jet Stream, moving north and east. Arctic air north and west of the low, will combine with warm and moist air south and east of the low, allowing the storm to deepen. So once again severe weather is likely for those areas south of the track, with snow/mix/rain along and north of the track.  As the first low heads toward the Great Lakes, a second low will form

The precipitation will move west to east Saturday and will last into Sunday. Snow showers will start in western parts of our region Saturday morning, some snow will likely be starting across southern Pennsylvania, and maybe Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey Saturday morning as well the snow/mix will make it into Eastern New York State and Western New England around mid-day.

Southern parts of the region will see a see a quick change to a mix then change to all rain by the afternoon.  So, most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and Central and Southern New Jersey will see light (C-1) to no snow before the change to quick mix before going to all rain, these areas including the middle Atlantic look to see 2-3 inches of rain. Northern Pennsylvania, the Southern Tier of New York State, including New York City/Long Island, Southern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island could see 1-3 inches, Northern Connecticut, much of Massachusetts, into the Mid-Hudson Valley and Mohawk Valley could see 3-6 inches of snow.  Northern New York State and Northern Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will likely see several inches of snow.  That warm nose will continue to move north Saturday night and Sunday changing snow over to a sleet/freezing rain mix for much of New York State and Central into Northern New England and then maybe rain for some of those northern areas. The mix could even make it into coastal Maine.  Winds will be quite gusty Sunday and Monday, with gust of 45 to 50 mph possible.

Colder air will come in behind an arctic front as the storm departs. This will kick off some lake effect snow for Monday into Wednesday for those areas downwind of Lake Ontario. For the first half of next week will be dealing with an arctic airmass, so it will be quite cold for mid-February. We will have yet another storm tracking along and ahead of the Arctic boundary, depending on the location of the jet stream and where the arctic boundary is sitting, will have a lot to say on the track and intensity as the storm develops and moves north and east, the track could be close to or over the Coastal Plain, or it could track a little more offshore. Too early to go into much detail and snow amounts, but there is a chance this could bring heavy snow to the mid-Atlantic and New England, Could Eastern and Northern New York State see significant snow? Maybe! We will watch and see how things trend.