Had enough Cold, Cold, Cold!

 

So far this has been a very active winter; not many major storms, but many small to moderate events. Our region has been extremely active over the last 7 to 10 days. Looking forward, the pattern looks to become less active, but there are still going to be disturbance to track, some of these will likely impact at least parts of Northeast and or the Middle-Atlantic.  

It's been a cold February; but overall, the entire winter has been the coldest we’ve seen since the winter of 2014-2015.   

 

The reason for all the cold has been partly to do with the Polar Vortex while being overall strong, it has had several instances Where it stretched or even split. In fact, the Polar Vortex has stretched 10 this winter. Currently the PC stretched over Canada into the Northern U.S. The phases of other teleconnections like the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation have also played a role in the cold. Currently we have strong high pressure over Greenland this is allowing for warm weather there. This area of high pressure is helping intensify and push all of this cold air into the U.S.

The core of the cold is going to relax as we head over the weekend into next week. But we look to see a trough build into the East, which will allow cold air to make a return for the end of February.

As we move into March, I still expect to see the PV stretch at least a few times. So, I still expect to see outbreaks of polar and arctic air masses make their way into the Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast.  The Western ridge looks to build into the Gulf of Alaska, this should lead to storms sliding down the ridge into the Eastern half of the U.S. So, the pattern could become active again during the first couple weeks of March. With temperatures in the eastern U.S. staying seasonal to below average. I expect more rain/mix/snow events, as the cold and warm air masses duke it out. Depending on the storm track and setup, there is still the chance for a major East Coast snow storm over the next few weeks.

The CPC 8–14-day temperature outlook, reflects this idea. We’re in the end of February so the sun angle is getting higher, March will see that angle increase. But a increase in the sun angle can lead to melting, it can also be a storm lovers friend, by changing the dynamics and lead to stronger storms.

So winter isn't over by a long shot!