The snowbelts
have been having an epic season. The Tug Hill into the Western Adirondacks have
already seen 150 to 300+ inches of snow so far this winter. I know at my house we’ve
seen 310 inches, with Copenhagen just to our east seeing even more with around
320 inches. Before Lake Erie froze over, the snowbelts off of Erie, saw tons of
snow as well. There have been several building collapses not only around the Tug Hill, but in many other areas as well. The amount of snow that has already fallen across the Tug Hill is
around our typical winter snow totals for the entire season. With several more weeks of winter yet to go, I’m
sure the Tug Hill will end up with well above average snow totals.
As far as I
can tell, seasonal snowfall across the most of New York State is near average
to slightly below average. I think New
England is having a similar winter with general snow amounts near average to
slightly below average. But parts of the Southeast New York State, Middle
Atlantic and New England closer to the Coast are seeing slightly below average
to below average.
Looking
ahead a bit.
In my winter
outlook, I said winter 2024-2025 could winddown during early March. While much
of my Outlook has played out as I thought. The idea of an early spring is very
likely not happening.
We’re going
to see warm ups with the next couple of winter events. But overall, we’re
likely to see cold air hang on over the next few weeks. When we look at the American and European global
models, they show general ridging out west into the Gulf of Alaska along with
general troughing over the central and eastern North America. The CPC 10–14-day temperature outlook is going
along with this idea.
So, with the pattern looking to be cold and active; I don’t see these snow/mix storm chances ending at least into mid-March.
So if you're looking for a early Spring, I won't get my hopes up!.
Not looking for an early spring at all, looking for a do-over on snow (hv). Thanks for your work!
ReplyDeleteI think you will have at least a few chances of that happen as we move forward.
DeleteYou're welcome!
Thanks for your efforts.
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon, Rebecca, I have been watching the storm that we are supposed to get late Saturday into Sunday, and it had us at first receiving 6 to 7 inches of snow late Saturday and then for Sunday it had us for 11 to 15 inches during the week the amounts fluctuated, but it was to be an all snow event. Yesterday I looked and Saturday was less than an inch and Sunday was 1.3 inches of rain whenever you look at a storm from six or seven days out and see a lot of snow for that forecast, you’re setting yourself up for a bad weekend. Today actually just 15 minutes ago. I decided to look again and was pleasantly surprised One Saturday had 6 to 7 inches of snow and then I pressed Sunday and saw 11 to 15 inches of snow. I made sure that I was looking at Adam’s Massachusetts, which I was and I looked at another forecast and there’s were also rather hefty with snowfall amounts. I don’t know what happened but the snow that we were supposed to get that would quickly change over did so, but it was a very short event which I don’t care about. If you get to read this and have time, let me know your thoughts because even though I do go to other weather apps, I can type in places that I’m familiar with in Maine New Hampshire, Vermont. I can’t find where the Tughill is. I’ve looked on several maps and it just is not listed, but the other ones I can see what’s happening up in areas that I’m familiar with. I’ve spent time up there and see how there once is going and for those areas the forks in Maine, Pittsburgh,N.H, the forks in Maine, Pittsburgh, New York, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, Killington, Vermont, and Pittsfield, Vermont. Those areas are all having a great winter. It seems that if it’s not snowing 6 to 10 inches then it’s 6 to 10 below zero out with a lot of wind. Just as I said a lot of wind I had a drop down box that says wind advisory for Adams maybe I’m psychic or something. With next week being presidents week and the kids are all out of school I look at Monday through Friday after this supposed snow storm is over and Monday has three or 4 inches of snow early in the morning and then Tuesday Wednesday are I believe both zeros but there is two days that have 7 to 9 inches and of course the 3 to 4 inches on Monday just wondering what you see it’s far as this weekend and next weekend. On a sidenote, I would love absolutely love to have a winter with over 300 inches of snow and to have that snow at times falling at 5 inches of an hour, in the spring with all of that snow I know some of it melt down, but when it starts to get warm, how much flooding does your area get and if you’re sick of it, just send it this way. I truly thank you for all of the time you spend doing this and over the years I’ve asked you a lot of questions and then I will go to the NWS page and read their outlooks and un certain words they allow you to look up different words that have to do with Weather so when I look at a map, such as the one ones you put up a few days ago I don’t feel as though I’m looking at a five year olds coloring book. Thank you for being patient with people and for keeping your page up so that we can come to this blog. I really don’t believe winter would be as the same without your forecast. I would really like to see you doing a question and answer type thing as others do once in a while it’s obvious you can’t do it every week but once in a while to have people type of question and try to stump, you would be very entertaining, and I believe that YouTube would be the place to do that you had mentioned looking into a YouTube page. The amount of forecast that you put out is more than enough and one feels weird asking you to commit to even more time with all you have to do besides Weather. Have fun out in your 300+ inches of snow if they sound jealous it’s because I am😉😊
ReplyDeleteAlan, thank you for your reply on my post, I wish I had more followers like you. I had a very good following on FB, but then when they accused me of plagiarism and other things that were all lies, I lost that following. Because of the way FB treated me, I will not go back on to FB. Yes, I want to start a YouTube channel, but I want it to be a success right off the line. So, I need to have more follower and eyes on my post in order for that to happen. I’m just too busy to go and build a following again.
DeleteThe Tug Hill is a large area just east of Lake Ontario and west of the Adirondacks. Here is a map I found that shows where it is located.
Meteorology is a very new science, as a result many of the tools we use are considered cutting edge, so this can lead to forecasting issues. We understand awful lot when it comes to atmospheric principles, but there is still a lot we don’t understand when it comes to atmospheric science. The atmosphere is constantly in flux, with several things working together to create the weather we see every day. Before I make a forecast, I look at the general overall setup in the global atmosphere. This gives me a good understanding of what is what and what is going where. I use several tools when I forecast, one of these tools is computer models. Because the atmosphere is constantly changing, the data these models use is being refined and upgraded on each run of the model. And these changes have a big impact the further you go in time. The better you understand the underlaying pattern, the better you are at weeding out model inconsistencies, leading to better forecasting. Weather apps are great, if you want to see a basic overview of what is going on and what may happen over the next few days. But here in the U.S. most of these apps based there forecast strictly on the GFS model. Using just a single model can lead to wild swings in temperature and other variables that are very important when forecasting. This is because tiny changes in the model data from these initial conditions can lead to significantly different outcomes. This gets worse the farther into the future you’re going, leading to the wild changes you’re seeing on your app. The data collection and increased computational power, and improved logarithms are improving the models all the time, but we have a long way to go before we can truly rely on them.
As for all the snow, I’ve lived on the Tug Hill long enough to be accustomed to it. The weather here in the Northeast is a lot different than what I experienced living in Texas. But the snow is a lot of work. But I don’t really mind it.
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Deletehttps://considerthesourceny.org/document/map-showing-boundaries-physical-regions-new-york-state
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