More on the storm this weekend and the one for next week.

 

The Gulf of America…

Why am I calling the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America?

Donald Trump is calling what was (and what many still call) the Gulf of Mexico. I really don’t care what anyone wants to call that body of water. But since the NWS is now also calling that area of water, the Gulf of America, I’m also going to be refiring to it as the Gulf of America. When the Hurricane Season starts, I don’t what any confusion between what the NWS and or NHC is talking about and what I’m talking about. By starting to call it the Gulf of America now, everyone should be used to it, come June.

 

  

No real changes to what I’ve been saying.  The storm moving in will be a fairly long-duration event, bringing a mixed mess of rain, sleet/freezing rain, and snow.

 

Radar shows snow has changed to rain over Southwest Pennsylvania, with a mix moving toward Central Pennsylvania. The snow is overspreading New York State and Pennsylvania. This will continue to push north and east during the rest of the region into tonight.

Then during late tonight into the overnight, that warm nose will allow the warm air to override the cold air, switching much of the region over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain.

The snow amounts I posted yesterday are still the same with the exception for Northern New York State, where I’ve increased the coverage of that zone of 12-18 inches. So, while snow won’t be all that much of a problem, ice could be a big problem for parts of the region starting tonight into Sunday morning.

Those with the greatest potential for significant ice of 0.25 to 0.50” and localized amounts of near 1 inch will be across part of Central New York State (likely south and east of Syracuse), down into the Catskills just South of the Mohawk Valley but there could be 0.25+” of ice north of the Eastern Mohawk Valley. 0.25 to around 0.50” of ice will also be a concern across Southern Vermont into Western Massachusetts, (Southern Greens and Berkshires).   A large part of the region will likely see 0.1” to 0.2” of ice during the event.  Those who see 0.25” and higher will run the risk for power outages, with areas that see over 0.50” having a greater chance for widespread power outages.

Gusty winds will accompany the arctic front, wind gust of 50-60 mph will increase the risk for power outages throughout the region.

The cold air mass looks to be as cold or colder than the coldest air we’ve already seen this winter.  Gusty winds and the deep cold will stick with us Sunday into Tuesday. Lake Effect snow will be a big issue downwind of Lake Ontario for Sunday into Wednesday.

 

Storm for mid-week

 

Next week we will have low pressure move into the Plains. At the same time, we will have energy pushing out of the Northwest then move across the Northern Plains. Tuesday, we’re going to have arctic air ejecting into the Plains. This is going to push into the warm air and moisture pushing north out of the Gulf of America. The result will be a snow storm developing over Oklahoma and Texas. As the energy in the Plans interact, we will see low pressure develop along the Gulf Coast. This will push East on Wednesday. As this is happening high pressure will be sitting over southeast Canada into the Northeast. This would help feed cold air into Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic.  This could lead to areas were cold air damming hangs on leading to the chance for an ice storm in parts of New York State and New England.

As the low pressure near the Gulf Coast moves east, warm moist air is going to be overrunning the cold air and energy pushing East. This will mean low pressure developing near South Carolina this position will allow the storm to draw moisture from the Atlantic as well as from the Gulf.

From here, we have three scenarios. One, it tracks out to sea, keeping our region on the fringe. Two, it comes up the Coast heading for the Delmarva Peninsula. Three, it tracks more west and is an inland runner.

Which one of these prevails will depend on how the storm interacts with the polar jet stream and the trough axis. 

The three major global models are very similar up into Wednesday.

The Euro shows this rapidly deepening as it moves up the Coast. It also is keeping the storm closer to the Coast. Bringing heavy snow to the Middle Atlantic, Eastern Pennsylvania, Eastern New York State and New England. Those who what a big storm for the I-95 Corridor, would love this idea, if the Euro is right.

The GFS has slightly different ideas. It still has arctic air in the Northern Plains, but the dynamics between the cold northern air and warm southern are not as impressive. It also keeps the storm farther south and east. With the change in overall dynamics and timing, as the energy comes east, the Coastal Low isn’t as defined. Which results in a weaker and less robust snow storm for the Middle Atlantic and into the Northeast. 

The Canadian GEM also has the storm coming up the Coast, it is even a bit closer to the Coast than the Euro. The GEM blows this up into a major nor’easter. With the Euro and GEM looking very similar, the GFS is the outer, increasing the odds that the other two models are keying onto the setup better.

The Euro and GEM have the northern and southern energy phasing (interacting). Leading to a big storm. While the GFS keeps the two pieces of energy more or less separate. All the models show this staying off the Coast, so that third scenario holds less weight. Making it more unlikely.  

If all the ingredients came together just right, this storm could be historic for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. But if things don’t come together and the storm stays south and east, snow amounts will be considerably less, with the possible exception of those close to the Coast. Right now, I’m becoming increasingly optimistic that this will end up a big deal.

Cold air is going to invade the region behind the storm heading for the weekend. Then we should see temperatures modify as we head for March.