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Tuesday, February 9, 2010
For GFL favorable uvm in/close to snow growth region.
Similar chart except for data from today's 2-09-10 18z NAM. The UVM is removed from the best SGZ. Doesn't look too good. Right?
Look at the winds AOB below 850 hPa from both the 12z and 18z NAM: From the NNE. Now look at the winds around 700 hPA for both times from the NAM ESE-SE now look at the winds AOA 700 hPa more of the same ESE flow. Nice signature AOA approximately 700 hPA for both divergence (lift).
Surprise lingering snowfall many hours after what computer models "say" plus better uvm then what they are forecasting.
Could I be wrong sure. But confidence is high that I will not be as I have seen this signal before over the past couple of years. Pattern recognition counts for something!
Here are surface forecast maps from today's (09 Feb 2010/12z) UKMET.
The following maps are surface pressure and wind with 850 hPa isotherms in degrees Celsius along with forecast precipitation (QPF).
The first set of maps is for forecasts hours of 06, 12, 18, 24 hours ahead; i.e., thru Wednesday morning 7am/2-10-2010.
Second set is for the following 24 hours though Thursday morning 2-11-2010 same forecast field and parameters.
Third set of maps: Upper left is a 60 hour forecast of the same parameters and the next 3 panels are a forecast vertical temperature, moisture and wind profile for Plymouth, MA. Date and valid times are listed to th upper right of the sounding.