Saturday, April 9, 2022

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Part 1

We’re around seven and a half weeks from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1st thru November 30th. So, it’s time to take a look at how I think the season will unfold.

The list of names for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. If we end up with more than 21 named storms, the additional names will come from an alternate supplementary list.

 


Courtesy of WTSP (channel 10)

A few basic definitions:

A tropical cyclone is the generic name given to low-pressure systems that form over warm tropical or subtropical seas. When the NHC and I or other forecasters discuss categories of tropical cyclones we use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. On this scale (which IMO is outdated, but that’s a discussion for another time) tropical cyclones are rated as follows.

Tropical Depression: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds less than 39 miles per hour.   Also, in order to be classified as a tropical depression, a tropical disturbance must develop a closed surface circulation with organized thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph to 73 mph. When a tropical storm is identified, it formally receives a name. Tropical cyclones retain their tropical storm status as long as their maximum sustained winds remain between 39 mph to 73 mph.

Hurricane: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Category 1 hurricanes have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph; a category 2 has sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph Once a hurricane’s sustained wind speed reaches 111 mph it becomes classified as a major hurricane. Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category is 4 130 to 156 mph, and a Category 5 has sustained winds of 157 mph or greater.

 The Atlantic Basin consists of the entire North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): is used to express the energy used by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime, the higher the ACE number the stronger the storm and greater the potential for destruction it has.  The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACE for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season.

In the past an average Atlantic Hurricane Season was considered 12 named storms, 6 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes (based on 1981 to 2010 average), Brian McNoldy, of the University of Miami, has reassessed that average based on the increased activity the past three decades. Using that, he suggests that the new normal is closer to 14 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes (based on the 1990-2020 average).

A look back at the 2021 hurricane season:

 The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the third most-active season on record with 21 named storms, 7 of which were hurricanes, 4 of which became major hurricanes.  We saw 7 landfalling tropical systems on the U.S. mainland. It became the seventh consecutive year that a storm formed before the official start of the season; when Tropical Storm Ana formed on May 22.  2021 was the second consecutive year, and third time on record, that we've exhausted all names from the hurricane list.

The season saw two top end category 4 hurricanes, the most destructive was Hurricane Ida which made landfall at Port Fourchon, Louisiana, on August 29 with winds at 150 mph. The 2nd was Sam, he was the strongest hurricane of the season, with sustained winds of 155 mph, just shy of Category 5 strength. Based on satellite data, in my option Sam most likely briefly strengthened to a Category 5, But he weakened before the hurricane hunter aircraft could make it to the hurricane.  fortunately, Sam avoided all land and remained a fish storm. He maintained major hurricane status for a whopping seven days.

In my 2021 hurricane outlook I called for 18-26 named storms, 6-13 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes, with 6-10 tropical cyclones making landfall on the U.S Coast. My ACE call was 140-160.

 Analogs:

Those of y’all who follow my long range seasonal and special outlooks know I use analog years. Analogs are when I compare ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow patterns from past seasons and look for the ones that closely match the current year setup. past seasons that featured weather patterns similar to the current are used to try and figure out what’s likely to happen. Even with a warming planet, I find that with some adjustments analog forecasting is still a valuable tool.

Analog Seasons:

I’ve came up with my final set of analog years. I found 10 that were useful analogs, the 7 that are the closes match are: 1975, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2020, 2021. The other three are 1998, 2005, and 2017.

The main parameters that will impact the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:

Sea Surface Temperatures:

Here’s a look at the current global SSTs

 


Courtesy of WeatherBELL Analytics

The Atlantic:

We know the Atlantic plays a key role in the number of tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Looking at the global SST chart

We can see the SST in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central Atlantic are above With SST along the East Coast into the northern Caribbean, and eastern Gulf of Mexico are well above average. SST in the eastern Atlantic and eastern MDR are near-average; but, the SST off the African Coast are below average. The MDR is where the majority of tropical cyclones and major hurricanes form.  But these areas will warm during the Summer, and will likely be very warm by the heart of the hurricane season.   The water temperatures off the Southeast Coast, means there is a chance for preseason tropical cyclone development near the US Coast and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Like last year, we’re likely going to see an active African Monsoon Season. When we see increased monsoon rains, there were more frequent intense hurricanes in the western Atlantic Basin. We should also be looking to see a Stronger winds over northern Africa, will help push disturbances off the West Coast of Africa, increasing the risk these tropical waves would become tropical cyclones.

 

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. When it is in its warm (positive) phase, the conditions in the Atlantic Basin are much more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. So, we tend to see more strong storms form and increase the risk for U.S. landfalls.

Classic positive AMO

 


Classic negative AMO

 


Current SST in the North Atlantic

 


Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

Looking back at the global SST chart, we can see the AMO status isn’t as clear cut, while it doesn’t match the classic warm or cool AMO phases, it is more of a hybrid. But I see enough that, in my opinion, the Atlantic is still in a positive AMO phase.

When we compare this year’s SST in the Atlantic to last year at the same time, we see that the overall look is similar. But the SST in the Gulf and in the Western Atlantic are quite a bit warmer this year.

2022


 

Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

2021

 


Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

 

Another factor will be the Bermuda Azores high:

The Bermuda Azores high or, simply, the Bermuda high (BH) is a large semipermanent area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean.  The strength and location of the BH is a major factor in weather on the East Coast. If the BH is far enough west, it can transport tropical heat into the Northeast during the Summer. If the BH is particularly strong, it can bring widespread drought conditions and heat waves to the East coast.

The Bermuda high is also the primary steering mechanism for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.  As tropical waves form off the coast of Africa, the clockwise flow around the high steers the waves Westward.  As they move over the warm tropical waters in the MDR of the Atlantic, they can strengthen into tropical storms or hurricanes. If the BH is far enough north and west these can ultimately impact the U.S.  

During the first half of the season, the center of the Bermuda high will likely be a little south and well west of the Azores. As a result, the East Coast is going to be at higher risk for tropical cyclones recurving out of the MDR into the western Atlantic off the or into the Eastern Seaboard. Then as we get into October, the BH will likely move closer to the Azores. This would mean the last part of the season could see more in the way of staying off the US Coast, are recurving away from the East Coast.

 

The Pacific:

The Pacific also has a big role in the development and strength of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin

The El Nino Southern Osculation:

The ENSO consist of a warm and a cool phase

The warm phase is called El Nino, this is when SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are above average. El Nino generally increases wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. The higher amount of windshear lowers the risk for tropical development; it also tends to reduce the chance of strong hurricanes. But there have been very active and powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic during past El Ninos.

The cool phase is called La Nina, this is when SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are below average. La Nina generally decreases wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. The lower amount of windshear increases the risk for tropical development; we also tend to see stronger hurricanes during La Nina seasons.

La Nina:

As I outlined in my Spring Outlook, last year’s La Nina was weakening, but it since then has reversed and is currently restrengthen, especially in the Central equatorial Pacific.  The reason of the strengthen is due to the easterly trades increasing, this is driving the warm SST to the west. The warmer waters pushing west is also allowing for upwelling as the cooler subsurface water works its way toward the surface.  

 

 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean forecast



Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Nino Region SST Departures

 


Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures

 


Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Currently we have a weak La Nina in place it looks to head toward moderate. This current La Nina is looking to be a Modoki La Nina, meaning it will be central based. As I outline in my Spring Outlook, La Nina could very well extend into September/ October, it could even persist into next winter.

Typically, during La Nina there is a higher chance for tropical cyclones to recurve up the East Coast.

 

The main points:

The Atlantic is in its warm mode, meaning a better chance for more and stronger tropical cyclones

La Nina in the Pacific, means there is a better likelihood for more tropical cyclones with a higher chance of impacting the Gulf and East Coast.  

The warm SST off the Southeast Coast increases the risk for preseason tropical activity.

Given the players and overall parameters the 2022 hurricane season will likely see many weaker storms out in the open Atlantic, that have a tendency move out of the MDR and be fish storms (ones that say away from land). But as was the case last season, the setup is going to allow homegrown tropical cyclones that form in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and close to the East Coast.  This kind of setup can make for a very dangerous and potentially deadly hurricane season; as they form close to the U.S, where they can rapidly intensify, making for short warming windows.

Other major weather outlet predictions:

 

Other outlets are starting to release their early thoughts on this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. All these outlets will release updated outlooks as we get closer to the 1st of June.

Colorado State University

Calls for 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major, ACE 160.  The next CSU forecast, due June 2,

WeatherBELL Analytics

18-22 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 2-4 major, ACE 140-180, I expect WxBell to release another outlook sometime in May.

AccuWeather  

16-20 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 3-5 major, ACE 120-160, I expect AccuWeather to release another outlook sometime in May.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Hurricane Center won’t release their outlook until May.

My prediction:

 

Everything I’m looking at, is telling me the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is going to be another dangerous and active season, while it might not be quite as impactful as last season, I do think it will be a close match up. With the parameters in place the East Coast including the are at an increased Risk for tropical cyclone impacts.

 

Here is a map showing the area with the greatest potential for direct tropical impacts along the U.S mainland U.S. The Florida panhandle and the coast of the Carolinas are at the Greatest Risk. As for the Middle Atlantic Region and Northeast, are at a Heightened Risk for impacts from tropical systems.  The Middle Atlantic Coast has a heightened risk and eastern Long Island and along the New England Coast is at an Enhanced Risk.

 

So far, my preliminary call is 19-23 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major, 5-8 tropical systems making landfall on the U.S.  ACE is likely going to end up 140-160.

 

 Well, that’s it for part 1. I will be releasing part two sometime in May.