Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sandy looks to strike!

Here is a quick blog post on Sandy.

The current 2:00  pm update have Sandy's winds at 105 mph with a central pressure of 963 mb. She is moving north at 20mph.

Sandy had very rapid development after she went through Jamaica. She hit Cuba as a 110 mph Cat 2. I had thought she would hit with winds no higher than 90 mph. I thought this because the storms had underperformed this year in relation to the computer guidance. It now appears that the Euro was right all along. I thought she would be strong a tropical storm; when she left Cuba and reemerged back over the Atlantic. Because of that I thought she would lose her warm core when she pulled north of North Carolina. That will no longer be the case. She looks to have a lot of warm core characteristics. Also as she loses some of her warm core characteristics, she will increase her size, so the wind field will be much larger. A tropical system has its strongest winds around it's center. Because Sandy will be some kind of hybrid this will not be the case. So the exact point of land fall will not be as important because of the large wind field.

History can show us how dangerous and damaging a warm-core hybrid can be. The 1938 Long Island Express (The Great New England Hurricane) and the 1991 “Perfect Storm”. I'm not saying Sandy will be anything like those two storms; I'm just showing you examples of what a hybrid can do.

storm_18 The spaghetti plots

 With the strong Rex Block, Tony to her east, and the fact that she is stronger will allow her to stay to the west side of the projected track. This will keep her close the East Coast. Something else Sandy might do is develop frontal systems which is something you would expect from a Nor'easter. We also will have the arctic air mass moving south and pushing the jet stream with it. This will cause widespread strong winds in addition to Sandy's winds. So even if Sandy passes you by you will still have to deal with strong winds. The arctic air will also allow for Snow in parts of the Mid Atlantic states into the Northeast. There is also the rain, How much rain we get will of course depend on where she makes landfall. Monday will be astronomical high tide. So the coastal surge could come inland quite at bit and cause a lot of damage.

TropicalAtlanticIR Sandy should be around the Carolina's Saturday. This is when we will have a better Idea where she will hit along the coast. if she is close to the Carolina's Maryland and western Long Island would probably be at risk for a landfall on Sunday. However if she looks to moving away from the coast her hit would most likely be in New England on Monday.

The center of the track cone is New York City. But I encourage you not to focus on the center. There is a lot of real estate between North Carolina and Massachusetts. So don't panic just beware and prepared

NOAA's recommended items in a basic emergency supply kit:

Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation

Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food

Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both Flashlight and extra batteries

First aid kit

Whistle to signal for help

Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place

 Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation

Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities

Manual can opener for food

Local maps

Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger    

Well that’s it for now.  


1 comment:

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