Monday, February 11, 2013

Will we have another Nor’easter?

This is the a brief look at how the setup is looking for the possible nor'easter this coming weekend. The analysis Is based on the GFS charts. But I try to outline what must happen if we want a snowstorm.

500mb vort 13 feb In this image you can see the yellow line showing where the trough is located, from the Great Lakes, over the Midwest, and down into Texas, In the first image below we show you this for the date of the 13th.  The shaded 500 MB heights show a trough elongated back over the Midwest.  This is showing a lot of moisture on the east side of the trough with no real defined area of low .

 500mb vort 13 feb - Copy (2)

This image shows the locations of the northern and southern streams. There is a strong southern jet; this is moving a lot of moisture into the Southeast. You can also see the northern stream . at this point is a little weak. This is allowing the southern stream to gather lots of moisture, If the northern stream ends up interacting. The system would intensify things a bit sooner and allow the storm to come closer to the coast. Possibly enough to affect the parts of the Northeast. If we don't see any interaction everything would push to the east and out to sea. with little to no affect in the Northeast. 


500mb vort 14 febOn the 14th the this 500mb vort wind chart , shows the streams starting to interact. This is what we must see, if you want any snow . The timing is going to be critical. So we will have to pay close attention to the Clipper dropping out of Canada. Depending on how fast it moves and how much it deepens will have a big impact on what will happen on Valentine's Day. If we can see interaction early enough; the system will track more westward and further inland. Which in turn would cause rain/snow over coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. With snow across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast inland areas.


Here is a look at the GFS surface chart. The GFS is looking a lot better than it was yesterday.


Here Is the NOGAPS. It is showing a very solid hit.

The GGEM is looking decent as well    


Here’s the 12Z EURO. it is the outer at this point. having a track way to the south and OTS. Remember the Euro nailed the last system. Normally the Euro is the better winter model when it comes to tracking storms along the East Coast. So I guess, we will see how it trends over the next few days.


This last chart shows the 200mb level. you can see the southern jet is really amped up….IMO this is favoring the other models view of things……….But the Euro could be right.   Looking out past this weekend, the models are tracking another possible major Northeast Storm for the timeframe of 17-19 February. Looking out even further, The teleconnections are showing possible cold air outbreaks for February 21-25 and February 27- March 3rd. So like I said in my winter outlook and several times on my Facebook weather page, the second half of winter would be quite active.    

Well that’s it for now.    


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