70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
7 to 11 would become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3,4, or 5: winds of 111 mph or higher)
I said, I was using the weather patterns of past years and decades, along with other factors to make my tropical outlook.
Since 1950 the years 1952,1996, 2007, and 2008 had very similar oceanic and atmospheric characteristics to those forecasted for this years tropical season.
My forecast was this:
"This season will be quite active with 13-18 named systems, with 8-10 becoming hurricanes, four or five (perhaps more) of which will make landfall somewhere in the U.S. Also, I feel 2-4 of these will strike or impact the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states. Of the 13-18 named storms 3-4 will be major hurricanes. Once we get toward the end of July and onward I think the season will become quite active. "
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after Sept. 4.
Feltgen said "The all-time record was set in 1905, when the first hurricane materialized on Oct. 8".
In an average season the seasons first hurricane shows up by Aug. 10, with the second hurricane quick on its heals on Aug. 28 and the first major hurricane normally forms by Sept. 4.
As I've said in post and on my Facebook page, since the dawn of the satellite era, started in 1967. Hurricane Gustav set the modern record on September 11, 2002 as the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive.
The SAL layer... I feel this was the biggest factor this year.... tropical storms and hurricanes develop and intensify by feeding off warm, rising, moist air. But, the Atlantic's hurricane breeding ground has been dominated by dry, sinking air for much of the summer....normally you don't see these huge dust storms coming off the African Coast during the hurricane season...... The High pressure in the Atlantic was too far north... if it had been farther south it would have forced the air to come off the Congo instead of the Sahara Desert ...The Congo is all rainforest, therefore it has a lot more moisture......this would have been much more conductive for tropical cyclone development.
I don't like to see death and destruction, so a slow season is a good thing. one thing I want to mention is the almost always present high pressure over the eastern part of the Country has helped protect the Northeast from the few storms that did form.
From the hurricane climatology standpoint, storms ordinary form closer to the U.S. coast later in the season, like Hurricane Sandy last year.”