Tuesday, March 18, 2014

A look ahead: the rest of Spring 2014 into the Summer.

The Mid Atlantic just had another storm that brought some upwards of 10-12 inches of snow.

The Upper Plains is dealing with another snowstorm last night and today.  This is the same system that is going to bring a rain/mix/snow to the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday.

And we have several possibilities for wintery precipitation in the pattern.

As I'm typing these words the  Spring equinox  is 1 day, three hours,  and 36 minutes away.

Yes Spring is close. But winter doesn't want to leave. In fact it will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming.

I posted this from the Canadian NAEFS model on Facebook yesterday. 

You can see there isn't anything  approaching average temperatures in the eastern half of the Lower 48.  This graphic says it all,  this persistent cold pattern we've been experiencing will continue, for at least the next few weeks. Oh there will be milder days, but overall we will see many more cooler days than warm days, as we move into April and beyond.

CPC anologs

CPC 8-14 day temp outlook

Looking at the above charts I don't see any sign of Spring anytime soon.

Looking ahead into April:

National Multi-Model Ensemble showing the 2-M temperature anomalies.

As you can see April surface temperatures are looking to be well below average.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The NAO has been  positive since the latter half of November. This has lead to the persistent lack of blocking.

The Pacific has been in the divers seat this winter.

The Pacific North Oscillation (PNO) had a part to play in the Arctic/Siberian express. But not the only factor.

The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is located in the eastern Pacific, and is  similar to the NAO.  , It's an alternating pattern of high and low atmospheric pressure, The EPO helps determine the pattern of the jet stream moving from the Pacific across North America. The negative phase corresponds to widespread cooling over central and eastern North America and the positive phase to warming.

The EPO has been the major player in the ridging out West and the persistent toughing in the East. This has allowed the  numerous arctic outbreaks to sweep into the eastern half to the Country for the 2nd half of winter 2013-2014.

 The EPO is Negative and it looks to stay that way going into April .

As many of you know the northern areas of the Northeast have a lot of snow and ice.
The Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens, Whites have seen a very prolific winter. Each of these areas have deep snowpack. The lakes, rivers, and streams have ice on them. The Great Lakes have the most ice cover they've seen in decades.  In fact with the cold hanging around  not only will our chances for more accumulating snow stick around...but also the possibly of the Great Lakes seeing ice coverage remain if not increase some more.  Joe Bastardi  of weatherbell analytics has noted this as well.

So, Spring like weather is on hold.  I do feel that Spring 2014 will be cooler and wetter  than average. This coolness most likely will extend into the first half of Summer, especially around the Great Lakes.

The storm pattern looks active, and it looks to stay that way. Using multi-model ensembles... the long range looks to be above average precipitation for the rest of Spring and most likely into at least July.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you for taking the time to comment, I will answer as soon as I can.