Saturday, January 2, 2016

Is the warmth in the Arctic truthfully record breaking?

I was asked to post and comment on the amount of warming around the North Pole.  Your wish is my command.

But first, I want to cover some old ground.  Which really is the reason for the warmth at the North Pole.

We've been hearing the words  record breaking a lot lately.  We hear  phrases like, the worst in recorded history,  this is something else entirely, never before seen, the new normal. We hear words like,  extreme, unprecedented, unparalleled, historic, and unmatched. 

Reading and listening to all of this sounds scary.  The truth of the matter is, that is just, what they want you to feel.....scared.  We hear that 98% of all climate scientist...and vast number of Meteorologist are in agreement that humankinds release of CO2 and other the cause of all this......Really 98%?.....Who is this 98% and where are they?  To tell you the absolute truth, the way I see it, that 98% was pulled from thin air.  

I've wrote a lot about manmade global warming, climate change, cyclical climate oscillation patterns, as well has how people live along the coast, or how increasing  urbanization places more and more people in the path of Mother Nature.

I've said a zillion times, weather and climate on the planet Earth is controlled by the Sun.  The Sun heats the oceans, which have 1000 times the heat capacity of the air.  The oceans cover 70% of the Earth's surface.  So it should come as no surprise that the oceans play a major and primary role in regulating weather and climate across the planet.  I've talked a lot about sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Oscillations, and Teleconnections.  All of these things are what lead to the weather and climate patterns we see each and every day.  These cyclical patterns occur on a inter-annual, annual, decadal, multi- decadal, century, and even millennial time scales.  

You can search my blogs, or find write ups on my two Facebook weather pages......that show how I think. And what I think of Global warming alarmist.  I will link to two of them...but you can search and find the rest. Here is one on global warming.  Here is part one of my post on returning to the pattern of the 1950's. 
I've made a couple of post on how the pattern we're in now is very similar to the 1950's.  That is going to be something you might want to remember.  I've stated a few times, how often strong El Nino's lead to strong La Nina's in a year or two.....I've posted several times how the current El Nino has peaked, has shifted into the Central Pacific, and is weakening.  I firmly believe we will be in a La Nina by Summer 2016 it could even become quite strong.   Since the Atlantic  basin hurricane season is influenced by the El Nino Southern Osculation ( ENSO),  in other words El Nino and La Nina, next year could be busy.  During El Nino's we typically see below average Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic....during La Nina it's normally the exact opposite.

If we see a La Nina next year, with the pattern being close to what we saw in the 50s, that should get your attention.  The 50's saw many land falling tropical systems on the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). With many more people living along the coast, the increased risk in the number of and greater risk of land falling systems, could get sadly interesting to say the lease.

I want to touch on one thing.....when you hear Meteorologist or Climatologist say in recorded history.....they are not talking about thousands of years or even 300 years. They are talking about the last 125 to 150 years, with the vast majority of the records only going back the last 50 or 60 years. It wasn't until the Satellite era, that we were able to start getting much more timely and accurate readings and measurements.  The further you look back into time...the more speculation you have to do in-order to fill in much of the gaps in data, assumptions have to be done...Kind of gives the idea of recorded history a different look doesn't it?
How global climate temperatures compares to the past
Clearly the climate models have big problems.

A little on our Current El Nino:

Many have called the current El Nino record breaking. ...That is debatable...but let's take the claim at face value.  There is no doubt that November and December were warm......... I said they would be before summer.  I also have been saying for a long time, that January, February, and into March was going to be cold.. Many of the Models now agree with this idea. 

How on earth was I able to know the pattern that far in advance?  OK part of it was luck.....but a much larger part was pattern recognition.   Why many others can't see the pattern I can't say.....maybe they rely on computers too much....maybe it's because math comes easily to me.......but for whatever reason, I see the pattern is there.  I've shown many comparisons to this El Nino to other El Nino's, especially 1997.   I've talked about the ENSO regions many times region 1 and 2 and regions 3 and 3.4, and how what goes on in each region effects the pattern. 

Here's a chart that shows where the regions are located.

Earlier this year the current El Nino got very warm in regions 1 and 2. Then the SSTs started to migrate west.  So now we have the core of the warmth in the Central Pacific. 

Here are a few charts showing how this year's El Nino has behaved. 


You can clearly see the current El Nino has peaked in all regions..... You can also see how fast the Eastern Pacific cools off this Winter with a La Nina forecasted for Summer 2016.
Where the warmest SST are located,  effects the heights and trough and ridge patterns. In 1997 we had a very warm winter in the Northeast. Why? Because during the Super El Nino of 97 most of the Pacific SST warmth was in ENSO 1 and 2....this caused the trough over the West Coast and a ridge over the East Coast.  Since the current El Nino has peaked and the core of the warm SST is in the central Pacific.....The western trough will be pulled west, the eastern ridge will pull into western Canada, and the East will end up with a trough for January into March.
Weather is driven by the differences in temperatures in one area and the temperatures in another area.

My winter outlooks are always based on where the core of warmth is in the Pacific, and where the core of the warmth is in the Atlantic.    Where this core is or where you think it will be at some where you will see convection develop.....this helps influence the jet, in setting up where the ridges and troughs are going to be.
So when you have a combination of the warm SST's in the Gulf of Alaska and off the West Coast of the US, along with the shifting west of the core of warm SST's from our current El Nino....I know there is going to be a ridge developing in Northwest Canada, with a trough south of the Aleution  Islands.  Likewise, When the SST's are warm off the East Coast of the US, it tends to promote ridging around Greenland and above the 80th northern parallel.

I could go on and on about the osculation patterns and teleconnections. But I think my point is made.  Most of time, when you hear the word unprecedented used to describe something.....You should first say that sounds like hype....and second, why would this or that weather outlet what to hype the event.

 Anyway on to all the talk about the warming in the Arctic.  I could simply say most of it is nonsense.  But I will show you some charts and other things that will show why it is happening.....and most importantly try to dispel all the malarkey.

First of all, the fact that the North Pole has never been this warm is rubbish.....

A site I use very often is run by the Danish Meteorological Institute. They have lots of records...including records going back to 1958 showing temperatures above the 80th northern parallel.  Here's a link to the site, if you want to look it over.

Here are a few charts.  1989, 2000, and 2015. I could have pulled many others but there was no real point.  You can see on these charts that there have been times the arctic was warmer than the temperature spike that is getting all the hype now. 

When You look back at the past years that had major arctic outbreaks in the CONUS....there were always (a word I don't often use) warming going on in the Arctic. The storms that have been moving off the Northeast Coast have been moving  the air and moisture off the East Coast, and pushing it into Greenland.....It has to do with that ridging over Greenland thing I was just talking about. I've been saying for months how January into March was going to be cold. I didn't pull that idea out of thin air... I looked at the current a feel of where I thought it might head for.  Then I did research looking at past years and events that had similar patterns and outcomes. 
So the warmth in the Arctic is nothing new....what we're seeing in the temperature spike, is something I've been looking for and expecting.  All of the things that are going on, are as they should...the same way they always have.......In spite of what the Global Warming hypersters what you to think.

One more thing before I close....... I'm hearing at lot of people panicking about how warm November and December were.  Far too many people fear a repeat of 1997-1998 when the Northeast was so warm. But I've stated and shown many times how the current pattern is nothing like the Super El Nino  of 1997-1998. 

 Here are two charts that show there is a correlation between warm falls and cold winters. Also, h
ere is a look last winter at this time and how it stacks up snow cover and snow depth wise to this winter. 

I hope I made a complex subject understandable.... and that you learned some always, questions are welcome.

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