Thursday, September 8, 2011

Katia, Maria, and Nate


Hurricane Katia is  moving north. She should change direction and start to move out to sea tomorrow. Katia will stay south of New England and well south of the Canadian Maritimes.

                                                Forecasted track for Katia

Tropical rainstorm Lee:

The upper trough associated with what's  left of Lee will be spinning around with no place to go. Until a trough moves out of Canada to get rid of it in a few days. The flooding in the Twin Tiers and Mohawk Valley is historic. When all is said and done some places in the Susquehanna Valley will see upwards of one foot of rain.


At this time TS Maria is moving W. She is 2 days away from impacting the northern Leeward Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Maria is struggling with some dry air. The environment is fairly conducive with just a bit of shear. The shear will keep her disorganized for the Next few days . So, we won't see any rapid strengthening. In a few days when she starts to make a turn more to the north; the environment will become much more supportive for more in the way of strengthening. I would say Maria has a good shot at reaching hurricane status in about 110 - 120 hrs. However, she will most likely lose her hurricane status within 48 hours do to the return of shear. It is still way too early to forecast a track along the east coast. However, Maria could be a threat to the SEUS in 10 days or so.


                                        Model forecast track for Tropical Storm Maria

                                                     GFS ensemble members

TS Nate is still pretty much stationary. This is because of several ridges that have it blocked in. The models are split on where Nate is going. I know Andy felt at least yesterday that Nate was a Mexican storm. Now why this is still a good possibility, I'm not so sure this will be the case. There is a lot of dry air NW of Nate. And there is weakness in the trough north of Nate. I think the ridge will remain west of Nate. So with the Atlantic ridge  giving it a path to exploit this weakness. This could have a impact on the track. It seems that the GFS has noticed this set-up. The GFS had the storm going into Mexico yesterday. However, it now turns Nate NNE toward the SEUS. However, the Euro now shows Nate moving into Mexico. So it will be a wait and see.

Model forecast track for Tropical Storm Nate

                                               GFS ensemble members 


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