Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Wet weather continues.

 The upper-level pattern has not been completely kind lately. The remains of Lee will become part of a upper-level low. This ULL will become detached tomorrow from the main jet stream. Once it's cut off it will sit in the Ohio Valley until it dissipates. The models have been having a hard time pin pointing where the heaviest rain will be. It looks like Ccentral Pennsylvania and into southern New York look like will be the most threatened with flooding. In NYS the steadiest of the rainfall looks to be from the Finger Lakes into Central NYS. The WRF and GFS bring 3-5” of rainfall across Central New York and Finger Lakes. TS Lee has been playing mischief for the last couple of days; Lee contributed to a tornado and the other severe weather we've seen. The pattern we're in will not be changing quickly. As for Eastern NYS and the Capital District (CD), There will be some moisture drawn in from the Atlantic, The GFS shows heavier rain in northern New Jersey into New York City. Some of the other models don't show this. Right now it looks like the CD will see 1-3". The point I'm making is the region cannot stand very much rain before flooding resumes. So things will have to be watched.

QPF forecast

As for Katia,  Right now she is a Cat 3. She seems to be doing what was discussed in the other blog post. she is going to scare the outer banks of NC and maybe flirt with Cape Cod.  But, I think that is it. The ULL is not all bad;  it will push Katia back;  where she will dance with high pressure over the Atlantic. Once she is caught up in the westerly's  she moves out to sea well south of New England and the Canadian Maritimes.  She should cause large swells up and down the East Coast beaches. So beach erosion and rip currents will be an issue.


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