Thursday, July 10, 2014

The tropics and it's going to get chilly next week.

The Tropics in the Atlantic Basin  are quiet, and look to stay that way for at least the next five days. The reason is  strong wind shear and dry stable air.  When you have this kind of setup the tropical waves moving off of Africa heading across eastern and  the central Atlantic have no chance of forming tropical cyclones.  

El Nino is still missing in action. But the teleconnections and sea surface temperatures ( SST's) show a good likelihood of El Nino.  The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) still has the chances for El Nino at 70% for later this Summer and up to 80% for the Fall. As I've been saying, I think it will happen later this Fall. Some are calling for a strong El Nino. But I don't think its going to be that strong.... more likely weak to maybe moderate.   As I've said in many blog post and on my accompanying Facebook page...eastern based El Nino's cause wind shear to increase over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  So with the Setup in the Pacific still strongly pointing toward El Nino, it is really no surprise to see all the wind shear over the Atlantic.  

I've also mentioned quite a few times that  Saharan Dust inhibits tropical formation as well. It typically brings dry air that is not conducive to storm development, and some studies have suggested the dust itself has an effect on cloud formation, dust that is suspended in the wind absorbs and scatters solar radiation. This means less sunlight reaches the ocean surface,  resulting in cooler temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, therefore cutting off the fuel supply to any waves moving over the tropical Atlantic, and inhibits development of tropical cyclones.  Just remember inhibits doesn't mean excludes tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin.  

Any tropical waves that do make it into the Caribbean and Gulf; they can become tropical Storms and hurricanes. As was the case of Arthur.  Because of the setup over the Atlantic Basin, the East and Gulf Coast are more at risk for land falling tropical systems.  

 The week of July 13th-19th.

This coming week is going to see an old friend return. That being the Polar Vortex.  I'm sure most of us can remember the havoc the polar vortex caused last winter..........

Next week unseasonable very chilly air looks to move into the Midwest and Northeast. The vortex is going to allow a very cool air out of the Gulf of Alaska  to plunge into the northern tier of the U.S. typhoon Neoguri that just hit Japan, is going to play a huge role in the pattern, by amplifying  the area of low pressure over Alaska. The west coast trough will act like a slide giving a clear path for the cooler air to the south.  Right now it looks like the Midwest will take the brunt of the cold. However the Northeast will see temps 10-20 degrees below average, especially in the northern parts of New York and New England. I expect to see record lows set this coming week.  


Current surface chart, note the low in the Gulf of Alaska.
Here is the position of the vortex on Monday.
For Tuesday
And for Wednesday.
We had a very volatile  Winter....The Spring saw the same type of validity... I expect Summer of 2014 to continue the same theme ...long range teleconnections and models are showing a pattern of wild temperature swings and possibly an active severe season this Summer. One only has to look back to this past Tuesday to see just how severe it could get.......  

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