Satellite imagery over the tropical Atlantic for
this Thursday afternoon, shows no areas
ofreal convection. There are four or
five tropical waves out over the Atlantic and Gulf, but none show very much in
the way of thunderstorm activity. But we do have a Cape Verde wave that
some potential, low potential but potential none the less.
Cape Verde Waves can become classic Cape Verde hurricanes, so-named since
their development can begin soon after a tropical wave leaves Africa and passes
near or over the Cape Verde Islands.
I've been saying the reason for the slow season is
dry dusty air, coolsurface water
temperatures, and disruptive wind shear.El Nino is on the stove cooking, but it's not quite ready to put on the table yet.
Here's a look at the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
image. You can see it is setting right over the normal tropical cyclone
formation zone.The Models show this continuing
for the next 6-10 days, and maybe longer. The teleconnections are all showing
it should be quiet in the Tropical Atlantic Basin for the next week and a half
to two weeks.
Saharan Air Layer
We also have a giant area of high pressure setting
in the middle of the Atlantic. This is forcing the tropical waves to the south.
Looking at the wave emerging off the West Coast of Africa, you can see it is
south of where waves normally emerge.
GFS showing high pressure over the Atlantic
As I said this Cape Verde wave has potential. The
environment is hostile. But this could be slowly changing. Wind shear has
started to relax over the last few days.....this tendency looks to continue for
the next week to ten days.
Wind Shear yesterday
Wind Shear Today
Hurricane Donna was a Cape Verde storm, she too
emerged south of Dakar. I'm not saying this wave will do the same thing, in
fact it odds of development are low... But it has possibilities.
Areas where development is possible
Hurricane Donna's track
We also have an area in the northern Caribbean and
off the Southeast Coast that has a chance for development, as well.
So while it is quiet now, anything can happen.
Tropical Cyclone Bertha is bound to form sometime this season.