I didn't fall into that trap. when doing long term
seasonal outlooks; it's never wise to go out on a limb unless you're sure. The
models and teleconnections have been wrong before. But to be fair, The signals
were never all that inductive of a strong El Nino event.
Over the last few years weather event hype has
become the big story, or as I call it the big lie, when it comes to weather
events. Many websites, and even more than a few of my fellow meteorologist have
done a lot of exaggeration. More and
more are becoming snake oil sales people, instead of discussing the weather in sane dialogue. Every warning sounds like the apocalypse is
upon us. Every storm is going to be extreme, This storm or that storm is going to bring
disaster, Some like "The Weather Channel" are now even naming winter
storms. Many weather reports sounds like
it has never been this bad before. For
example, last winter's Polar Vortex, that brought the cold weather.... Many
news outlets and weather outlets were using words like unprecedented to describe a cold wave. But Hey it's winter, it gets cold.
Trust me there have been winters much colder that the winter of 2013-2014. National broadcasters completely over-dramatize
their weather reports, leading to widespread
panic. Case in point Hurricanes Iselle and Juiio in the Pacific. It's no wonder that people are failing to
take weather forecast seriously, look what happened last winter in
Atlanta. Global warming is also being
over exaggerated.... yes there is evidence that global temperatures are
warming.....But what is truly the cause.. nature or humankind...... All I will
say is there is a lot of junk science on both sides..... If you want to read
what I think... here is a link..
One has to be careful where they get their weather information.
One has to be careful where they get their weather information.
I say enough, just present the facts when it comes
to weather and climate events.
El Nino:
The Odds of a strong El Nino are very slim. A strong
El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. The Tropical Pacific Ocean was primed for an
El Nino, and to a lesser extent is still is.
But The atmosphere hasn't really responded. In fact
there has been some cooling taking place
in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Right now there is a slightly below-average ocean heat content. But the temps are above average near the surface. Upper and lower wind remain average over the Pacific, except for the low level wind anomalies over the Eastern Pacific.
Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for
an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has
largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not
reinforced each other. As of the beginning of August, we still haven’t seen a
strong atmospheric response. As a
result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean, with most of the key El Nino regions looking to head to neutral
values.
At this time, There is a chance for a weak-to-moderate El Nino during the late fall
and early winter. The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. The odds now stand at a one in three chance
that El Nino won't happen.
Long Range Outlook:
I've said before, long range outlooks are a lot like reading tea leaves....you need skill and more than a little luck, for them to work out.
There are signs that
September could see a couple of bouts of cold air pour out of Canada
into the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Right now, this looks possible for the 2nd
half of September.
This year has seen a lot of swings in temperatures
and has been quite active storm wise. I don't really see any change in that
pattern as we head into Fall. October should see the seesaw pattern continue, .
It's hard to judge precipitation but we might start to dry out a bit, and we could see a bit more warming of temperatures, as we move
into the end of August thru the first part of October. But any tropical cyclones during that time
would throw that idea out the window. Once we get past October things turn
interesting.
The Global forecast models favor a weak to moderate El
Nino by early winter. My thoughts favor a weak El Nino. The conditions in northern
Canada are looking to set up similar to last fall. So we could see things
become unsettled and maybe getting more colder than average , for the last part
of Fall heading into early Winter. In
fact when this starts to happen things could move quickly.
When you look at the statistics for El Nino years ,
there is a correlation to snowier winters
on average for The Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Of course, if you've followed my
seasonal outlooks, you know, PNO, NAO and The AO, will have a lot to say about
that.
We have been locked in the same general pattern that
we saw last winter (ridging in the west and troughing in the east)...this was
one of the main reasons for the active severe weather we've seen this Summer.
This pattern looks to stay in place as we move through Fall and head into
Winter.
Based on my observations of the general setup, We will
most likely see a winter 2014-2015 that
will be quite similar to the Winter of 2013-2014. The statistics support the
fact that during a weak El Nino the Northeast sees a lot of snow...even more
that during a strong El Nino.
These are my first thoughts and the upcoming Winter....So don't take any of this to heart...things could change as we get closer.
The 1992 tropical season:
Even without El Nino forming yet, the pre El Nino
conditions in the Pacific, have suppressed the Tropical Atlantic. 1992 was a El Nino year, in which El Nino was
fading, so the setup would be very similar.
If you follow my blog, you know I believe in cycles.....
The tropical setup and activity in 1992, in both the
Atlantic and Pacific were very similar to this season.
1992 was very active in the Eastern and Central
Pacific. As has been the case this year, many of the tropical cyclones came
close to the Hawaiian Islands. One of
these was Hurricane Iniki, passed 300 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii,
and ended up making landfall on the Island of Kauai. Kauai is about 296 miles
northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii, and is just northwest of Oʻahu . It is
the 4th largest island in the Hawaiian chain.
Hurricane Iniki had maximum sustained winds of over 140 miles per hour
with gusts as high as 175 miles per hour at landfall, making Iniki the most
powerful hurricane to strike the Hawaiian Islands in recent history.
1992 saw a
slow start in the Atlantic Basin, the year ended up well below average in
tropical cyclone activity. But it did have one surprise, Hurricane Andrew.
Andrew was a Catorgry 5 that nearly wiped out southern Florida.
Like this year conditions in the Eastern and Central
Atlantic were unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. Only five named storms would form (one
was added later which brought the number to 6), most of those formed closer to
the United States. Andrew was a major exception, forming in the Central
Atlantic. Andrew quickly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane near the
Bahamas. Andrew lost some punch over the island, weakening to a Category 4. But
within a day he was once again a Category 5.
He made landfall as Category 5 (one of only two
other known storms to hit the US mainland that strong) on Elliott Key and later in
Homestead, Florida. Andrew caused unbelievable damage across Southern Florida
and later when he again came ashore at Morgan City, Louisiana.
I'm not saying anything like Hurricane Andrew will
form this year in the Atlantic Basin......But as history shows, it is
possible.... so don't let down your guard this tropical season.
Well that's it hope you liked it.
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