Another update on the developing El Nino

 

This post won’t breakdown the definitions, terms, or meanings. For those you can go to my other El Nino post from earlier this year. You will find the links with in the post. This will cover the important data. It will also cover a little on how this El Nino could impact the hurricane season.

My last El Nino update can be found here

Another El Nino post can be found here

I wanted to post a quick El Nino update. There is no doubt that El Nino is in play, when we look at the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.

 Credit: tropical tidbits

 A look at the SST and subsurface anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Credit: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific stand out. But we can also see SST in large parts of the global oceans are also experiencing above average SST, The Main Development Region (MDR) in the Atlantic is seeing record warmth for this time of year.

Right now, the El Nino is considered weak, but it is developing rapidly, and is knocking on the door of a moderate El Nino.

 The four El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mentoring regions are showing El Nino conditions.  With the central and eastern Pacific SSTs exceeding El Nino thresholds.

 

   

The three-month-average Nino-3.4 Index, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), was 0.5 °C for April–June 2023. In order to qualify as an official El Nino year, the ONI must be at or above the threshold for at least 5 three-month periods. In this case, El Nino conditions would need to last through at least the August–October average to qualify.

Credit: tropical tidbits

2-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Nino-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for all events evolving into El Nino since 1950 (gray lines) and the current event (purple line). NOAA Climate.gov image based on a graph by Emily Becker and monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5.

 

As of July 19^th, the daily contribution to SOI calculation is at -20.38. The past month has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shift back to neutral levels, with the 30-day SOI at +3.03 for the 30 days ending 16 July. The 90-day SOI is outside El Niño thresholds at -6.03. Sustained changes in wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. But given the rapid SST increases both at the surface and subsurface, I do think coupling will occur sooner rather than later.

 

Credit the Queensland, Australia Government website

 The most recent IRI plume shows the models favor the El Nino to continue to strengthen, right into Winter 2023-2024.

 

Credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society. We will likely be dealing with at least a moderate El Nino through Spring 2024.

To read about what is a super El Nino click here.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring. A positive IOD will enhance the El Nino's impact.

 The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, but some models indicate it will strengthen in the eastern Maritime Continent or Western Pacific region over the next 14 days. Should this happen, this may contribute to El Nino development by weakening trade winds. Allowing the SST to warm even more.

 

The hurricane season…

 From a forecasting stand point, the 2023 hurricane season is going to be more challenging than usual because of conflicting signals. We have a strong El Nino developing. But we also have the SST in the Atlantic being extremely warm in many areas, which could enhance storms. As I’ve said before, we have never seen the Atlantic so warm during an El Nino. So, with both ocean basins being very warm, the battle will be around which ocean is warmer? and how will that effect atmospheric connections?

Typically, during an El Nino, we see more stable air and stronger westerly wind at upper levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic. The increase in vertical wind shear, leads to the developing tropical waves having their tops sheared, So El Nino generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes than average tend to form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season.

So far, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, has been unusual. There have been four named storms and one unnamed storm back in February. Having named storms develop in the MDR this early is almost unheard of.  There are three main reasons for all the development in the MDR this early; one is the record warm SSTs, two is the lack of dry air out over the Atlantic, three was the general lack of vertical wind shear out over the Atlantic.

The Bermuda/Azores sub-tropical high was atypically weak during May and June, this led to less Saharan air layer dry and dusty air out over the Atlantic. The weaker subtropical low also contributed to reduced wind shear. Those warm SST in the MDR also helped reduce windshear.     

So, with the Atlantic so warm, we will likely see less overall shear than we would during a typically moderate to strong El Nino. Depending on how the MJO phases work out along with the timing of the Tropical waves, we will have the potential for tropical activity in the Atlantic, leading to average to above average numbers of tropical storms or hurricanes.  

To read more on my 2023 hurricane outlook you can go here.

This is still looking to be strong El Nino. Since El Nino’s typically become their strongest during Northern Hemisphere winter, we will likely be dealing with a strong or even super El Nino for late Fall and through Winter 2023-2024. Since this is going to be the first strong El Nino with the Atlantic Basin so warm, we’re going to learn a lot on the subject and there will undoubtedly be surprises along the way.  I will likely post another El Nino update some time in August.

El Nino is officially here.

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Nino advisory, announcing the official arrival of El Nino. There are several factors in place might make this El Nino different than other El Nino’s in the past.

The last El Nino event to impact the country was during 2018-19, this event was very weak. Since then, we had a triple dip La Nina, meaning a La Nina that covered three consecutive years.  

Nino region 3.4 is where we usually monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for El Nino or La Nina. As I’ve said many times, an El Nino is when sea surface temperature anomalies reach 0.5 °C or warmer than average values for a three-month period.  When we look at the monthly Nino index in each of the four Nino regions, we see that they are all above 0.5 C.  Nino 3.4’s anomaly is at 0.98°C above average, meaning we’re on the cusp of a Moderate El Nino, Nino region 3 is at +1.1°C, Region 1+2 is much warmer at +2.6°C. 

The strength is determined by how much above average the water temperatures are in the Nino 3.4 region. The stronger the El Nino the greater it’s impacts. I posted in the blog, about what is a Super El Nino which you can find here.

Water temperatures 0.5ºC above average = Weak El Nino

Water temperatures 1.0ºC above average = Moderate El Nino

Water temperatures 1.5ºC above average = Strong El Nino

Water Temperatures of 2.0+ above average = Super El Nino

When we look at the subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, we can see there is a lot of warmer than average water below the surface, coupled with those very warm SST off of Peru and Ecuador. While this is a good indicator of a strong El Nino down the road; they aren’t a 100% guarantee that a strong El Nino will develop.  When we look at the historic record, the SST in the equatorial Pacific is currently the 4^th warmest for May.  The top two May values were 1997 and 2015, both of these become super El Nino’s.  The El Nino of 1979 into 1980 lasted into the Summer of 1980, 1980 saw the third warmest water in the Central Pacific for the month of May. But that didn’t result in a strong El Nino, instead that El Nino was a weak Modoki El Nino.  A Modoki El Nino is when the SST in the central Pacific is warmer than in the eastern Pacific

This El Nino has started early based on the historic average. The early bird El Nino has formed roughly two months early.  The vast majority of El Nino’s are at their strongest during December to April, with the greatest impact during December through February, But the early start might make a difference in this. If the El Nino strengthens quickly it could affect both temperatures and rainfall this summer.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)...

The SOI is a good indictor of how the overall atmosphere is responding to the ENSO. The more negative the SOI the stronger the El Nino. Sustained negative values below about –8 indicate an El Nino.

Over the last several weeks, both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)...

The MJO is currently sitting in phase 3 and is very weak. The MJO is looking to transition to phase 4 and looks to stay there at least through the Middle of June. After that the models show it collapsing into the Circle of Death (COD) for the 2nd half of June and remains there for the foreseeable future. Phase 3 is typically a warm signal for the Northeast. But Phase 4 is a cool signal.  Once the MJO reaches the COD, it will loose most of its influence on the overall pattern, allowing other forces to be in control of the overall show. Seeing the MJO in the COD during the summer months is fairly typical due to the generally weaker trade winds. The MJO is looking to support overall temperatures staying below average to near average for much of June before allowing for more warming during July.

This should allow for the pattern over the CONUS to adjust to become zonal. Over the last several weeks, the pattern over the northern CONUS has been stuck in a roadblock. So, we’ve been having these upper-level lows (ULL) setting up and hanging around the Northeast.  The idea of these ULL spinning over the Great Lakes and Northeast is typical for El Nino. But lately this idea has been on steroids.  With the pattern more Zonal, we would have systems moving freely from west to east.  This would allow us to return to overall average/slightly below average temperatures across the Northeast, which would be a big change from the overall well below average temperatures we’ve been experiencing for the last few weeks.  So, with the El Nino, while we will see troughs over the Northeast, there shouldn’t be as many of them as we’ve seen the last several weeks. 

This general idea is supported by the CPC 8–14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks.

 

The Atlantic is also very warm...

Typically, El Nino creates more in the way of hostile atmospheric conditions of higher amounts of windshear. The higher windshear helps to disrupt tropical formation in the Atlantic Basin. Typically, during El Nino, the Atlantic sees cooler SST; the lower water temperatures are also unsupportive for tropical cyclone development.   This year Atlantic SST are much different. The warm SST are over a large part of the North Atlantic, including the Main Development Region. The combination of El Nino, the large amount of warm water in the north Pacific, and the very warm SST in the Atlantic Basin, is really nothing that we’ve seen before. So, we’re kind of in uncharted territory, when it comes to this year’s El Nino.   

The warmth in the Atlantic is going to help counteract the impact of El Nino on the 2023 hurricane season. This is one of the reasons My hurricane outlook is calling for average to above average tropical cyclone numbers in the Atlantic for this season.  

 

El Nino impacts for this Summer and upcoming Winter...

During El Nino years overall temperatures are warm across much of the CONUS, part of this has to do with the fact that typically during El Nino overnight temperatures are warmer when compared to afternoon temperature anomalies. This hanging on to the heat, helps to raise overall summertime temperature anomalies when they are averaged together.

In the summer months, the eastern U.S. typically sees cooler-than-average temperatures, with more in the way of dry condition, this is especially true for the Northeast. I showed this in my Summer Outlook which you can find here. Remember, the stronger the El Nino the more pronounced the impacts.

During the winter months, the northern tier of the CONUS including the Northeast it tends to be warmer than average, while the southern tier is colder than average. The Middle Atlantic region tends to see overall average to slightly below average overall temperatures. Precipitation is typically average to above average. But the temperatures make P-type is highly variable. Generally, snowfall is below average across the interior Northeast, this is largely due to the polar jet stream's diversion north, keeping the region warmer than average. The Middle Atlantic tends to due better on Snowfall during El Nino, typically seeing average to above average snowfall.

But the idea of this being a strong El Nino will have an effect on all of this. For the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic Region, the phase of the MJO is as or more important than El Nino when it comes to snowfall in this region.

Here is a chart for cities in the Northeast and how the strength of the El Nino and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has on snowfall totals.

 

Showing snowfall from 1950 to 2017, broken down by El Nino, La Nina and neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) seasons, as well as those stronger El Nino seasons with a predominant positive (+) or negative (-) NAO.

In seven of the nine Northeast cities examined, strong El Nino seasons with a prevalent negative NAO produced the snowiest seasons compared to average.  The reason for this is when the NAO is negative it promotes a general pattern supporting Blocking near Greenland. Along with a better chance for the polar jet stream to push south, allowing for colder air at times. During strong El Nino’s the subtropical jet is typically very active and has a better chance of interacting with the northern Jet, when the polar jet is farther south.  This increases the odds for bigger Northeast snowstorms.

On the contrary, with the exception of Washington D.C., all other Northeast cities tended on average to see the least snow during strong El Nino and generally positive NAO.   The reason being the polar jet stream stayed eastward up across Canada keeping the cold air bottled up in Canada. These kept the subtropical jet stream from interacting with the polar jet, with a general lack of cold, meaning there were few chances for Northeast snowstorms.

That covers the latest on the developing El Nino, and how it could impact this Summer and a little glimpse of what it could mean for the Winter of 2023-2024.

Winter 2018 2019 Preliminary Outlook Part 2

A couple of weeks ago, I posted on my Facebook weather pages, dealing with my preliminary outlook and why my outlook is so different from so many others. I received flak for that post....and I most likely will receive some because of this post. But that goes with the territory and I'm used to it.

Winter-2018-2019-preliminary-thoughts

Preliminary thoughts for winter 2018-2019 part 3  

This post will add to the preliminary outlook, showing more of my thinking and what the pattern looks like right now, and seems to be heading.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

 

 

Images from Tropical Tidbits:

 

 

ENSO 4 is starting to get very warm. The ENSO 1+2 is still cooling. This puts more credence into my idea of a Modoki El Nino will be in place later this fall and winter. As I've been saying for a long time, the odds favor a weak El Nino event. The warmth should start to extend into ENSO 3.4 at some point. But there is a chance El Nino doesn't form, meaning we would see El Nino neutral conditions. Typically we see a more active southern sub-tropical jet during a El Nino Modoki than we do during a regular El Nino. The added lift the Modoki adds to the jet pattern, does increase the odds somewhat for East Coast storms.

I've said repeatedly there are different flavors of El Nino's and no two are exactly alike. I've also said, there are big differences between a normal El Nino and an El Nino Modoki. But on average this is how they work out.

Other Teleconnections:

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

January to July the QBO was strongly negative (east based). If this continues into winter it's a good indication for a colder than average December - February. 

When the QBO is easterly, the northern jet is typically weaker; This increases the odds of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)events to occur. When we have a SSW event the polar Jet often weakens (this jet is often called the polar vortex); this leads to the likelihood of cold polar air to break off and spiral southward into the Midwest and Northeast. An easterly QBO increases the odds for more frequent negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) outbreaks which further increases the odds for a colder than average December through February.  There is a strong correlation between a weak/neutral ENSO and an east based QBO to colder winters here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. 

A negative factor for cold this upcoming winter will be the fact that we look to have an east based QBO with an El Nino.  El Nino's tend to negate the influence from the QBO. But this being a Modoki El Nino it will help offset that impact somewhat.  

Here is an image that shows how we fair during a normal and Modoki El Nino event. I also show how east based QBO of various strengths impact the region.

 

 

 

 

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO):

The AO measures the differences in atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. As all oscillations it has a positive and a negative phase. In the positive phase arctic air on average stays locked up to the north. Whereas the negative phase on average sees a greater likelihood of more cold arctic outbreaks. In this regard it would work with the Modoki El Nino and QBO helping to up the odds for a colder winter.

Pacific warm spot:

We have that blob of warm SST south of Alaska. This is a good sign that we will see upper level ridging develop in western Canada. This would also up the odds for colder air in Siberia and northern Canada to flow downstream along the trough that extends eastward.  How far eastward is one of my biggest question marks right now. One other thing about Modoki El Nino's is they also help punch that upper level ridge pattern over the West Coast. 

Sunspots:

It's been awhile since I've talked about solar activity and its impact on global weather.  But as I've said before, the sun and solar activity do play a big role in terrestrial weather and climate. There is correlation between low solar activity and upper latitude blocking near Greenland and Iceland.  Given that we're heading into the minimum  those odds do increase. The last time we were in a  solar minimum phase was 2007 to 2009.  The winter of 2009-2010 also had a somewhat moderate El Nino. That winter saw a lot of cold and snow in the Mid Atlantic Region. 

 

Great Lakes:

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are very warm. Lake Surface temperatures are in the 70's. This will play a role in the upcoming winter as well, especially during the first half of winter as cold air moves over those warm lake waters.

Atlantic Mult-decadial Oscillation (AMO): 

I've been talking a lot about the AMO. I do believe the pattern in the North Atlantic is showing a change occurring in the AMO. This cool ring in the northern Atlantic is further evidence for a cooler winter for the East Coast along with Europe.  The increasing snowpack over Greenland and those cold SST in the far northern Atlantic are a sign that the AMO is switching from a positive AMO to a negative AMO. If this is indeed the case; we could be on the cusp for many colder winters in the years ahead.

As a side note the winter of 2002-2003 is one of my analog years. Right now, the pattern is closely matching up with that winter. If this continues it could mean a bit of warmth during December. But 1977-1978 was another analog, that stayed cold from November to March....so we will see.  

Remember this isn't a real outlook/forecast. This is only where my thoughts are right now and some of the things I'm looking at and considering as we move along. it is all subject to change as things evolve and the pattern adjust. But I think October will see a big turn toward cooler weather, with perhaps many of us seeing our first snows of the season. 

I will stop here; but I will in all probability release one more post dealing with more signals on where we are heading and how I think that will work out, before I release my 2nd winter outlook for the winter of 2018-2019. I still plan on releasing my final winter outlook end of October or the first part of November.   


 

El Nino, PDO, and the AMO

The El Nino Southern Oscillation deals with the fluctuations in the  Sea Surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific. It has two phases, El Nino the warm positive phase, La Nina the cool negative phase.  

The El Nino is getting impressive... I must admit... it is getting stronger than I said it would....You can't win them all.

 

We've had strong El Nino's before.  1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998. The strongest on record was the 1997 El Nino. Right now, our current El Nino looks to be just a bit weaker than 1997...but all the July readings aren't in yet.

In my Facebook weather group, I've fielded questions and discussed on the current El Nino.

During an El Nino, the southern jet stream comes farther north. This allows for a better chance for phasing the northern and southern Jet streams. Phasing is when a disturbance in the northern jet and a disturbance in the southern jet merges and becomes one very powerful storm.  When we have a very strong El Nino the southern Jet is even farther north. Last year we had a very positive (warm) Pacific Decadal Osculation  (PDO). The PDO promoted ridging over the western  Continuous United States ( CONUS) and troughing over the eastern CONUS. This allowed more cold air to come down out of Northwestern Canada and Alaska. With the ENSO bringing the southern jet closer to the northern jet. This is want happened during the winter of 2014-2015. We saw a lot of Nor'easters and major coastal storms.

1997 was a extremely warm winter in the Northeast. The reason was in part because of the strong El Nino. Here is a chart showing the SST. You can see the warmth in the tropical Pacific look very similar.

 

 

I've talked about on my Facebook weather pages....even though we have a very strong El Nino, many other conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic are completely different.  

We have a strong (PDO) and a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Osculation (AMO).

 

The PDO was a little stronger a month ago... But since then, the PDO has seen some weakening on its northern edge. Also, the  SST's around Australia and into the Indian Ocean are starting warm up. This will aid the El Nino to get stronger. Six weeks ago the waters around Australia were cooler. The fact that these SST are warming ...will give this El Nino issues. During the 1997 El Nino the waters around Australia were cooler. With that said, I know I was saying this El Nino would be moderate to strong....but I was wrong...it looks like this current El Nino will end up warmer than the El Nino of 1997. 

El Nino and La Nina are short term cycles..... whereas the PDO and AMO are long term cycles.

Here are a couple of charts that show the cycles.

 

  

We're in a positive PDO and a negative AMO.... if you look at the top left (chart below) you will see how things are matching up to what we would expect from that pattern.

 

When we have a positive PDO, we tend to see more strong El Nino's, fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, and a less active tornado season. 

 

When we have a negative AMO, we tend to see strong LA Nina's, fewer hurricanes, and tendency for a positive North Atlantic Osculation (NAO) and positive Atlantic Osculation (AO).

 

Far too many meteorologist rely and trust only weather models. Models are great tools, but they are only part of what should be looked at. Looking at teleconnections, sea ice, solar activity, and other things are is very important as well. I based by Spring Summer outlook on all of these things.  Just as I use them when I make a winter outlook. If you've been following my post. Then how last winter turned out...and how this year is turning out....should be no surprise.

For the last few months I've been talking about the long range pattern; so far things are going as I outlined.  I've been saying we will see cooling as we move into August, and  things still seem to be trending that way. We will stay in this transient weather pattern well into August.  But as we head into the end of August and for September, we will see more in the way of long lasting warming.  The NCEP CFS V2  for August and September, show this to be the case.

The NCEP CFS V2 :

August,

 September,

 

As we head toward and get into the coming winter, the current teleconnection pattern of the PDO and AMO would indicate more in the way of cold..... So this year's El Nino shouldn't allow for the type of warm conditions we saw in 1997. The warm water near Australia would indicate on average higher pressure, with lower pressure on average in the tropical Pacific. This sort of setup would allow the warm water off the West Coast of South America to  move more to the west, as we get closer to this coming winter.

 

Hype, El Nino, Seasonal outlook, and 1992.

I've been talking about El Nino, off and on this year.  Lots of people were predicting a strong El Nino, using words like monster, super, and extraordinarily. 

I didn't fall into that trap. when doing long term seasonal outlooks; it's never wise to go out on a limb unless you're sure. The models and teleconnections have been wrong before. But to be fair, The signals were never all that inductive of a strong El Nino event.

Over the last few years weather event hype has become the big story, or as I call it the big lie, when it comes to weather events. Many websites, and even more than a few of my fellow meteorologist have done a lot of exaggeration.  More and more are becoming snake oil sales people, instead of  discussing the weather in sane dialogue.   Every warning sounds like the apocalypse is upon us. Every storm is going to be extreme,  This storm or that storm is going to bring disaster, Some like "The Weather Channel" are now even naming winter storms.  Many weather reports sounds like it has never been this bad before.  For example, last winter's Polar Vortex, that brought the cold weather.... Many news outlets and weather outlets were using words like unprecedented to describe  a cold wave. But Hey it's winter, it gets cold. Trust me there have been winters much colder that the winter of 2013-2014.  National broadcasters completely over-dramatize their weather reports,  leading to widespread panic. Case in point Hurricanes Iselle and Juiio in the Pacific.   It's no wonder that people are failing to take weather forecast seriously, look what happened last winter in Atlanta.  Global warming is also being over exaggerated.... yes there is evidence that global temperatures are warming.....But what is truly the cause.. nature or humankind...... All I will say is there is a lot of junk science on both sides..... If you want to read what I think... here is a link..

One has to be careful where they get their weather information.

I say enough, just present the facts when it comes to weather and climate events.  

El Nino:

The Odds of a strong El Nino are very slim. A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4.  The Tropical Pacific Ocean was primed for an El Nino, and to a lesser extent is still is. 

 

But The atmosphere hasn't really responded. In fact there has been some cooling taking  place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Right now there is a  slightly below-average ocean heat content. But the temps are above average near the surface. Upper and lower wind remain average over the Pacific, except for the low level wind anomalies over the Eastern Pacific. 

Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As of the beginning of August, we still haven’t seen a strong atmospheric response.  As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key El Nino regions looking to head to neutral values.

At this time, There is a chance for a  weak-to-moderate El Nino during the late fall and early winter. The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%.  The odds now stand at a one in three chance that El Nino won't happen.

Long Range Outlook:

I've said before, long range outlooks are a lot like reading tea leaves....you need skill and more than a little luck, for them to work out.

There are signs that  September could see a couple of bouts of cold air pour out of Canada into the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast and Mid Atlantic.  Right now, this looks possible for the 2nd half of September.

This year has seen a lot of swings in temperatures and has been quite active storm wise. I don't really see any change in that pattern as we head into Fall. October should see the seesaw pattern continue, . It's hard to judge precipitation but we might start to dry out a bit, and we could see a bit more warming of temperatures,  as we move into the end of August thru the first part of October.  But any tropical cyclones during that time would throw that idea out the window.  Once we get past October things turn interesting.     

The Global forecast models favor a weak to moderate El Nino by early winter. My thoughts favor  a weak El Nino. The conditions in northern Canada are looking to set up similar to last fall. So we could see things become unsettled and maybe getting more colder than average , for the last part of Fall heading into early Winter.  In fact when this starts to happen things could move quickly. 

When you look at the statistics for El Nino years , there is a  correlation to snowier winters on average for The Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Of course, if you've followed my seasonal outlooks, you know, PNO, NAO and The AO, will have a lot to say about that.

We have been locked in the same general pattern that we saw last winter (ridging in the west and troughing in the east)...this was one of the main reasons for the active severe weather we've seen this Summer. This pattern looks to stay in place as we move through Fall and head into Winter. 

Based on my observations of the general setup, We will most likely see a winter 2014-2015  that will be quite similar to the Winter of 2013-2014. The statistics support the fact that during a weak El Nino the Northeast sees a lot of snow...even more that during a strong El Nino.

 

These are my first thoughts and the upcoming Winter....So don't take any of this to heart...things could change as we get closer.

The 1992 tropical season:

Even without El Nino forming yet, the pre El Nino conditions in the Pacific, have suppressed the Tropical Atlantic.  1992 was a El Nino year, in which El Nino was fading, so the setup would be very similar.  If you follow my blog, you know I believe in cycles.....

                                               The 1992 Atlantic season storm tracks.

                                            The 1992 Eastern Pacific season storm tracks.

The tropical setup and activity in 1992, in both the Atlantic and Pacific were very similar to this season.

1992 was very active in the Eastern and Central Pacific. As has been the case this year, many of the tropical cyclones came close to the Hawaiian Islands.  One of these was Hurricane Iniki, passed 300 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii, and ended up making landfall on the Island of Kauai. Kauai is about 296 miles northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii, and is just northwest of Oʻahu . It is the 4th largest island in the Hawaiian chain.  Hurricane Iniki had maximum sustained winds of over 140 miles per hour with gusts as high as 175 miles per hour at landfall, making Iniki the most powerful hurricane to strike the Hawaiian Islands in recent history.

1992  saw a slow start in the Atlantic Basin, the year ended up well below average in tropical cyclone activity. But it did have one surprise, Hurricane Andrew. Andrew was a Catorgry 5 that nearly wiped out southern Florida.

Like this year conditions in the Eastern and Central Atlantic were unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.  Only five named storms would form (one was added later which brought the number to 6), most of those formed closer to the United States. Andrew was a major exception, forming in the Central Atlantic. Andrew quickly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane near the Bahamas. Andrew lost some punch over the island, weakening to a Category 4. But within a day he was once again a Category 5.

He made landfall as Category 5 (one of only two other known storms to hit the US mainland that strong) on Elliott Key and later in Homestead, Florida. Andrew caused unbelievable damage across Southern Florida and later when he again came ashore at Morgan City, Louisiana.

I'm not saying anything like Hurricane Andrew will form this year in the Atlantic Basin......But as history shows, it is possible.... so don't let down your guard this tropical season.

Well that's it hope you liked it.