Sunday, September 13, 2015


The first half of September has been hot. After this little mid month cool down, temperatures will head back to above average.

I've noticed the main stream media and several in the climate science community, have thrown how hot September has been. Once again the Global Warming Crowd (GWC) is throwing out terms like record breaking,  unprecedented, and historic to describe the current late season summer. I didn't hear any of them talking about our cool July and August. I guess they didn't notice.

As most of you know, I'm not a believer  in the idea of humankind's greenhouse gas emissions are behind this idea of global warming. I've stated many times I believe patterns and cycles are why the weather on earth behaves like it does.  

Here is a blog post I did a few years ago on the subject. You can find it here.

My outlook for winter 2014-2015 was right on the money.  If you remember, I stated back in March, how the spring and much of summer would be cool in the Northeast. That was certainly the case. I forecasted that September would start well above average, cool down, and then warm right back up again.... over a month and a half ago. Again, that is what we are seeing. I've stated the current El Nino would weaken and become central based, as we got closer to winter into the first half of winter. The model are now showing my idea looks likely.

I posted my preliminary winter 2015-2016 outlook weeks ago. The warm September and the trend of the El Nino go hand in hand with the winter pattern outcome I outlined.

None of this is done with magic..... I've used pattern recognition.

I'm sure others see the same things I'm seeing.....but it seems that those who think everything we're seeing today is something brand new....get all the coverage.

I'm not saying I have all the answers....but I've just outlined a few examples of doing long range forecasting....and have it come to pass. I've been wrong sometimes, but I've been right much more than wrong.

Yes this September has been hot. But it is hardly record breaking.

Here is a chart showing how this September stacks up to past years in Central Park. 


Boston, Hartford, and Providence have seen warmer Septembers.

Boston's September record is 102 back in 1881. Hartford set a September temperature record of 101 back in 1953.  Providence set its record high of 101, back in the last September Northeast heat wave in 1983.

The Mid Atlantic has had a long stretch of 90+ days. But back in 1953 records show there was a September heat wave of 100+ for five consecutive days.  That was set at the old weather bureau office in Washington DC. The records taken at the old weather bureau most of the time aren't included in the official records used today.

This is only a small sampling of the records I looked at. If you want to research, you can find a lot of data at KNMI Climate Explorer.

Despite what the main stream media and human-made global warming groups want us to believe, all the evidence shows, the vast majority of the record highs were set at least 50 years ago. 

This shows the 1890's and 1930's were very hot decades. This was before large increase in CO2 levels.


Given the fact of the amount of urbanization and incredible growth of CO2 levels since 1960.  The lack of heat records does seem odd, if you believe in manmade global warming.

Per NOAA, 82% of all maximum records were initially set prior to 1960 and prior to the accelerated growth of human CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels.

The records show, through 2011, no maximum temperature records have been set since the 1990's. This is simply astounding since all the climate doomsday pundits have stated that recent global warming was "unprecedented" and that U.S. temperatures were rapidly increasing due to CO2 levels.

Based on the hysterical hype-ridden talk from mainstream media sources, one would naturally have expected to see new maximum temperature records set in recent years.


Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

This year, we have a very strong El Nino going on. In the northern hemisphere, Global SST temperatures have risen +0.042 deg C over July, June and August. The global SST have decreased in the southern hemisphere.

An interesting side note.....during the 1997 Super El Nino, no temperature records were broken in the U.S. If you think greenhouse gasses cause global would have expected to see thousands of record highs....instead there were none....anyway back to SST's

As was the case last year the north Pacific has seen the most warming. Many have nicknamed this area the "Blob"  The blob started in 2012. Before that there was no warming on whole for decades and decades.

Note all of these charts were put together by Bob Tisdale

Here is the SST anomaly chart for the north Pacific. The chart covers the satellite era from 1981 to 2014.


According to NOAA   the north Pacific covers about 21% of surface area for global oceans...(an area bigger than Asia, Europe, and North America). starting from 2013 you can see the unusual spike in SST. prior to 2013 there had been no warming for almost two and half decades. The NOAA link is here.


What is amazing is that during those two and a half decades of no warming...greenhouse gasses were running amok......It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see something not involving greenhouse gasses is going on.


shows no real warming.....


when you add 2013 and 2014 you see a spike. A spike that looks like a very strong El Nino......what....don't we have a strong El Nino going on?  Why Yes We Do...could that be a coincidence? I think not.


Here is one more shows what the climate models say should be happening verses what the actual data shows.


You can see the models used by climate scientists doubles the SST from that is actually occurring. Clearly the data being input is faulty. This just shows how unreliable climate models truly are.


In conclusion, I've shown how this September warmth is not at record levels nor all that unusual. I've also shown how greenhouse gas emotions can't be the cause of global warming nor ocean warming.

The things that drive climate and weather on the planet Earth are the Sun and the Oceans. El Nino and La Nina are a major factor in warming and cooling across the northern hemisphere. Oceans are behind the rise in temperatures...look how much just the north Pacific has impacted SST and air temperatures.          


Thank you for taking the time to comment, I will answer as soon as I can.