Monday, October 5, 2015

Global warming and hurricanes.

It didn't take long; I'm already seeing articles, linking Major Hurricane Joaquin to global warming and climate change. The latest, is " How Climate Change is intensifying Hurricane Joaquin. By Lydia O'Connor in the Huffington Post. Ms. O'Conner states that "warmer oceans are making everything worse".  O'Conner also quotes Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center, as saying "Joaquin's quickly progressing strength can be tied to unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the hurricanes vicinity."

If you want to read her article you can find it here..

If you've read any of my post on the subject of human caused global warming...then you know I'm a skeptic, of the stinky stuff being peddled by the Climate Science Rapid Response Team. You also know I believe that patterns and cycles are why we see warming or cooling. The same stuff being said about Joaquin have been said of Sandy, Irene and others.  

  I've posted in the blog, many write-ups on hurricanes. A few years ago, I wrote on how we're entering a pattern that we saw in the 1950's. Here are links if you haven't read them.

Part 1  

Part 2

It's common for me to compare current storms to past storms.  Last week I said the overall pattern Joaquin was in was similar to what we saw with Sandy. We had small differences,  like placement of the trough and northern high pressure, that allowed for a different outcome. I also said the East Coast dodged a major bullet, by comparing Joaquin to hurricanes like. Carol Hazel Connie, Diane, and Donna. The idea that what Joaquin did was unparalleled is simply ludicrous.

In the past, the East Coast including the Northeast have seen much bigger hurricane impacts than we've seen in the last several years.

Here is another post I did on historic hurricanes..

The East Coast will see a higher risk for landfalling tropical cyclones, due to the fact that we're  transitioning from a warm positive AMO phase, to a cool negative AMO phase.  The same thing that happened in the 1950's. This was a strong El Nino year, it was (and did) going to cut down on the number of Atlantic hurricanes. But if you read my 2015 tropical outlook...what we saw shouldn't have been a surprise. The reason we saw more of an active season deals with several factors...not the least of which is the AMO.  So while warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are influencing the weather pattern, the reason isn't human caused global warming,

John Abraham, a mechanical engineer from the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota. said in 2012 "Major hurricanes are the only ones that really matter, and that major hurricanes are increasing."

 I guess Mr. Abraham, did not think the records kept by NOAA in the National Hurricane Center data archive, were worth looking at.   NOAA also has "Chronological List Of All Hurricanes Which Affected the Continental United States 1851-2014" These sources show, Abraham and the rest that say "were seeing a greater number of hurricanes and more intense hurricanes" don't know what they're talking about.

Looking into the archive, I was able to compile the following information.

Over the past 100 years 70 major hurricanes have stuck the United States. That makes of a basic average of 7 major hurricanes a decade.

Between 1900 and 1949 there was a total of 91 hurricanes, that made a U.S. landfall, 34 were major.

Between 1950 and 1999 the U.S. was hit by 74 hurricanes, 30 of these were major.

Breaking down the last half century by decade....the data shows.........

From 2001 to 2010 a total of 7 major hurricanes struck the U.S.

From 1991 to 2000, only 6  Category 3 or above hurricanes made a U.S. landfall.....below the 100 year average.

1981-1990, 4 major hurricanes fell on the US, a figure will below the 100 year average.

From 1971 to 1980, the same thing happened, only 4 major hurricanes.

From 1961 to 1970, 7 major hit the U.S.

Over this 50 year timeframe, not one decade saw major hurricane's excide the 100 year average.

Let's take a look back another 50 years. This is the time, of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, this is still the strongest hurricane to make a U.S. landfall....minimum pressure of 892mb, and max winds of 200mph at landfall. It also saw the 1938 Long Island Express, still the benchmark for landfalling Northeast hurricanes...this storm killed over 600 people in just 6 hours. A storm that is almost forgotten is the Great Hurricane of 1941 that carved a deadly damage path from North Carolina to New England. Anyway let's look at the numbers.

From 1951 to 1960, 9 major hurricanes struck the U.S. This decade saw some the worst landfalling hurricanes in U.S. history.   

From 1941-1950,  an incredible 11 major hurricanes made a U.S. landfall. That is well above the 100 year average.

From 1931-1941, 8 major hurricanes struck the United States.

From 1921 to 1930, 6 major U.S. falling major hurricanes.

From 1911 to 1920, 8 major hurricanes struck the U.S.

If we were to look back even further, we would find the Great Galveston Hurricane.    

It's clear that the first half of the 20th Century was worse than the second half.

One more thing, I want to touch on. There hasn't been a major hurricane making a direct hit on the United States in nearly 10 years. There have been 9 major landfalls in the Caribbean and South America, but not one on the U.S.

2005 was the most active year in the Atlantic since records have been kept. 2005 saw the likes of Katrina,  Rita, and Wilma, the last major hurricane to strike the U.S....on October 24th, 2005.

Why the major hurricane drought?  Well since 2005, there haven't been many hurricanes that formed close to the U.S. Another reason is the weather patterns have discouraged land falling tropical systems. In 2005 we had a high pressure ridge over the East Coast.  But since then many years have seen a trough of low pressure sitting over the East Coast, So as was the case with Joaquin, major hurricanes have just gone out to sea.

Joaquin was going too slow to get steered into the East Coast, if he had, the damage would have made Sandy, seem like a thunderstorm in comparison. The major cites on the East Coast are very vulnerable to major hurricanes. The major cities and most of the communities along the East Coast have seen incredible growth, much of this growth has occurred right at the coast.

I've just shown you the facts. In spite what the global warming alarmist what you to believe, the record speaks for itself. There has been no noticeable increase in either the number of or intensity of hurricanes over the last 100 years.   

If you want to look at the numbers..... NHC Data Archive    

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