As I said in the last tropical post, the SSTs are very warm, more than warm enough for something to spin up. The most likely spot for something to try and form will be east of Panama. From here it could drift and meander for a few days, as high pressure over the East Coast blocks it into the Caribbean. Dry air and windshear will likely be an issue at least early on. So, any development that tries to get going would be slow. The models are showing support for something to form, some are more bullish than others. The wind shear over the Caribbean is strong now. The question is will this weaken? Until something forms, there isn’t really anything else to say.
The National Hurricane Center has the development probability odds at 40% over the next seven days.
Thank you ! 🙏
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome, Gordon.
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