Feels like summer but don't get used to it

 The surface chart and radar

The trailing end of yesterday's system weakened overnight into this morning as it came over the Great Lakes; all thats left is scattered rain showers up over the Adirondacks and across northern New England. On the surface chart we can see that semi stationary frontal boundary sitting over New York State and New England.

South  of the boundary temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. While north of the boundary there in the 50s and 60s. With the southern flow we are experiencing higher dew point. The setup does support thunderstorm development

We still have several areas of low pressure moving along this frontal boundary. accompanying this area of low pressure We have showers and thunderstorms to our west. These will come through later this afternoon and this evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. With the greatest danger being damaging winds and moderate to large hail. But there will also be the danger of heavy downpours, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. With the heavy rains, localized flooding could be an issue.

Today's Storm protection center's convective outlook

The SPC has a Moderate Risk for severe weather across the southern tier of New York State into northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey the Moderate Risk also extends across southern New England. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms across Northwest Pennsylvania into Southwest New York State. The most likely time for severe storms to develop and move through will be late afternoon into around Midnight.

We're still going to be dealing with this semi stationary front tomorrow. we're also going to be dealing with this warm and humid air mass. This will provide showers and thunderstorms. Again some of these thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening could be strong too severe.

Tomorrow's convective outlook

Looking at the chart We can see the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the large part of New York State With a Moderate Risk that extends around it into New England and northern and western Pennsylvania. Like today the main risk will be damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. Frequent lightning will also be a concern. There will be enough wind shear that rotating updrafts are possible. So there is also going to be a tornado risk but the risk is low.

Friday will see the stationary boundary start to move south as a cold front. North of the boundary temperatures will cool down. We will also be watching a stronger cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures will still be  unseasonably warm south of the front. Saturday we're going to have a trough overhead, for the most part the day should be dry. But I can't rule out a few isolated showers. We could see more in the way of widespread showers and some thunderstorms out ahead of that approaching cold front Saturday evening/night.

Sunday we're going to watch a very strong cold front approach and move through. with showers and thunderstorms. We'll be under the trough on Monday with very cold temperatures for this time of year. We're likely going to see as 30-40+°F temperature drop, from the super warm temperatures we've been seeing As well below average temperatures take hold. Tuesday we'll see high pressure sitting overhead keeping things a little chilly. We will watch another area of low pressure approach us on Wednesday. 

Monday into Tuesday there is going to be a decent chance for snow showers for parts of northern Pennsylvania New York State into northern and central New England. There could also be some lake enhanced or even lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes

Euro and GFS images compliments of pivotal weather

My latest post on El Nino

Have a nice day

Feels like summer

 Surface chart and radar

Today is much warmer than it was yesterday. But the warmth is going to trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Looking at the surface chart we can see that stationary frontal boundary Sitting over Northern New York State into New England. this boundary Is it gonna rain semi stationary as it meanders over the region.  We have several disturbances Moving along this frontal boundary . The first is over the Ohio Valley and is advancing east. This is going to set off scatter rain showers and thunderstorms. Unlike the other warm ups we've seen. This one is going to be accompanied by atmospheric moisture and we're going to feel those higher dew points. Helping all of this will be high pressure sitting off the Southeast Coast.

Ahead of the cold front we are going to have a prefrontal boundary move across the region. With the warm unstable air and higher dew points the prefrontal will set off some thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. As I said some of these will be strong too severe. Yesterday I said the storm prediction center (SPC) would likely upgrade and expand the severe threat over the region and they have indeed done so.

The storm protection centers Connective outlook for today and tomorrow

Today

Look at the day 1 chart We can see there is a Slight Risk for severe weather over Eastern New York State into Western and Central New England. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over Western New York State all of Pennsylvania down into Maryland, Delaware and Northern New Jersey. The Marginal Risk also extends across the rest of Southern  New England.

The main risk is going to be isolated strong damaging winds,, moderate to large hai. There will also be heavy downpours, frequent lightning. There is a low risk for some tornadoes.

Any Sun we see today will increase the risk for severe storms.

The clouds, higher dewpoints and the southern flow, will keep tonight very warm. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms during the overnight. But these should be more garden variety and non severe

Tomorrow

 Wednesday is gonna be even warmer than today is that warm southern flow  drags in more moisture from the Gulf. these very warm temperatures and high dew points are going to be with us through Thursday.  Don't be surprised if you're dealing with some fog Wednesday morning.

Tomorrow that boundary up over northern New York State is  going to drop south a bit.As our next disturbance moves across the boundary the severe threat will be a little further south than it is today. The SPC has a Marginal Risk across southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over Southwest Pennsylvania and Southern Pennsylvania. Again the main risk will be the chance for isolated damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. There will also be the risk for frequent lightning and a chance for some tornadoes especially across western parts of Pennsylvania.

Thursday is going to be basically a rinse and repeat; as that frontal boundary continues to meander around. For Friday a slightly stronger cold front will approach and drop through with a disturbance riding along the boundary. Again this will bring the chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Saturday we are going to see a trough hanging around the region that's going to keep things rather unsettled. Then on Sunday a much stronger cold front is going to drop across the region. With the front we are going to see rain and some thunderstorms. Behind this front we're going  to see the end to all these warm temperatures, as much colder than average air moves back in over the region. Along with the cold we will have to reintroduce the risk for some snow. This will be especially true across New York State and Northern into Central New England especially in those higher elevations.

El Nino is about ready to make its presence known!

Here is yet another on our developing El Nino. I know I made several of them. But I think it's important to show how things are evolving with our weather pattern this summer and over the coming winter.

Current conditions

The Southern Oscillation Index is based on pressure changes, between Darwin Australia and Tahiti, When the index is positive we're typically experiencing la Nina conditions and when they're negative we're typically experiencing El Nino conditions.

The Southern Oscillation Index daily contribution is becoming increasingly negative. The value for '13 April 2026 is -8.6. This is an indicator that shows El Nino is taking hold of the pattern.  

Over the last several post I've been talking about how we're currently in El Nino Southern  Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions In the equatorial Pacific and how we are rapidly transitioning towards an El Nino.

Here is a look at the global sea surface temperature anomalies for April 12, 2026. Image credit Coral Reef Watch.

Here is a look T what SSTS in the equatorial pacific look like during an El Nino

I've said many times The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is comprised of a warm phase a cool phase and a neutral phase.  The cool phase is La Nina and the warm phase is El Nino. El Nino is the periodic warming of the waters in the central and eastern equatorial pacific. La Nina is the exact opposite.

El Nino's forecasted strength

The strength of the summers El Nino is going to depend on those westerly trade winds and how long they last while driving that warmer water from the West Pacific into the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific. The model data is showing how quickly this El Nino is going to strengthen

Image courtesy of tropical tidbits showing that readings in Nino region 3.4 are finally in positive territory.

Here is a look at NOAA's Strength possibilities for this year's El Nino. The color shading within the bars Indicates the relative strength Of the El Nino. Looking at the table we can see the percent chances NOAA has assigned for each of these strengths occurring.

In the last post I did on El Nino I talked about temperature contrast involving SST temperatures across the equatorial globe. I also want to caution that were in what is called the Spring Predictability Barrier ( roughly march to may). During this time weather models can be notoriously unreliable when forecasting La Nina or El Nino events. So for that reason any forecast that relies solely on model input has to be taken with a grain of salt. In the last few El Nino post I've made I've been talking about the parameters and physical properties of what looks to be happening.  I've been showing several parameters How the El Nino looks to develop. I've indicated how this evolving El Nino is looking to be a moderate to very strong one.

Another of these factors I've been talking about Is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO),

We just came out of the center circle on the MJO diagram. When were in that center circle (Circle a death) The MJO is extremely weak and isn't exerting influence on the pattern. The MJO is still relatively weak. But as we move forward It is going to become much stronger into phases 7 at 8. The ENSO and the MJO can have a love hate relationship. They can work together or they can fight each other. The ENSO and MJO are closely linked . Sometimes changes in the SOI index can be the result of the MJO while other times it's a result of how the ENSO Is changing. Because the MJO just recently came out of the neutral center circle. We know the changes were seeing in the SOI index is result of the rapidly changing conditions associated with the ENSO in the equatorial pacific and not the other way around. But with the MJO moving into phases 7 and 8 with high latitude. It's going to really add to the El Nino influence that is developing.

When the SOI's daily contribution is negative the eastern CONUS tends to become much more active and unsettled. This does tie-in with the other contributions of El Nino developing and the MJO forecast and explains my current forecast of very unsettled conditions for the next 7-10 days. 

Looking at how the  equatorial Pacific SSTS are influencing the atmosphere.

We can see that in these satellite images. Showing robust convection starting to develop near the Hawaiian island chain. In the water vapor image we can see how the subtropical jet is Becoming active and ejecting moisture into the 500 millibar pattern over the United States. This is the start of the ENSO and atmosphere coupling together. The conditions will become more profound as we move forward. We're also going to likely see the northern jet become more variable and active. This will allow for some cold outbreaks to invade during the next few months

The subsurface temperature anomaly profile definitely supports the idea of a moderate to strong El Nino

Currently The models are also supporting a moderate to strong El Nino developing. With the Euro Showing the most support for a super El Nino

We're going to start to feel the impacts of this El Nino very soon!

This week we're going to have strong ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS with troughing out west. But  due to the combination of the developing El Nino And evolving MJO.  This warm stretch is not going to have lasting staying power. So in 7-10 days we're going to see the pattern reverse with troughing here in the east. These 500 mb Height images are courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Many weather outlets and sites are talking about 2026 being a super El Nino year. But as I explained in this post and in some of the past recent post I have done that is not a sure thing. Based on the data I've been going over for last 4-6 weeks I've explained how this is likely going to be a moderate to strong El Nino. I've also indicated that a super El Nino is quite possible. But in truth it is still a little too early To say for sure how strong this El Nino is going to be.  Over my last few post on the subject I have pointed out the parameters that could lead this El Nino to be atypical from Past El Nino's especially super El Nino's. You are a few links On some of my post I'm the EL Nino.

My 1st thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season

El Nino post I made on April 2nd 2

Spring thoughts and the ENSO 

I've made several other posts on this developing El Nino. You can go back and find them. For the most part My thoughts on this El Nino have not changed all that much. over the last several months.All of these post show that. I think there are many sites That are trying to scare people in order to get clicks and likes on their pages. Instead I've tried to show you the science and how it all operates in trying to determine what the ENSO is going to do. 

Some broad conclusions we can make from all the data. Is there it's almost a guaranteed certainty that we are going to experience El Nino this summer and through the coming winter. With that idea in mind We know we should see conditions interfere with hurricane development in the Atlantic basin this year. You can also surmise that this coming winter will  have a tendency to be warmer and wetter. 

The last El Nino began during the summer of 2023 and lasted into winter 2024.

We can see temperatures anomalies were much warmer than average

The image below shows the typical on average El Nino winter pattern.

Well that's about all I wanted to cover for this installment on this quickly developing El Nino. Please let me know what you think and provide some feedback. It would be greatly appreciated to know all y'all are reading this and getting some benefit from it. Lately these post have not been getting a lot of views .I hope this can change moving forward. 

Warming but unsettled

 Current observations

If you've been waiting for a Longer stretch of warm temperatures this is going to be your week. That is as long as you don't mind having unsettled and windy conditions .

The surface chart shows a system north of the Great Lakes with an attached warm front moving into the region and a trailing cold front out over the Midwest.

Ahead of the warm front rain showers are moving across the region. This afternoon there will be a chance for a few thunderstorms. Especially across western New York State and western Pennsylvania. But radar has more bark than bite as a lot of this isn't reaching the ground (Virga)

With that southern flow temperatures are starting to warm. Behind the warm front temperatures are going to become much warmer during the week ahead. It's going to feel much more like summer than spring.

This frontal boundary is gonna remain semi stationary meandering around over the region. With a series of weak disturbances moving along this boundary This week is going to remain unsettled with rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The winds are going to be breezy too windy during the week.

Here's what the storm prediction center is calling for tomorrow. There is a chance that they could expand or upgrade the risk.

SPC convective outlook for tomorrow

Tuesday looks to start out dry But later in the morning and through the afternoon Showers and thunderstorms will move through. Some of these storms could be strong too severe with the possibility of strong damaging winds and hail. Additional risk will be Heavy downpours, frequent lightning and a slight chance for a tornado. But that tornado risk is very low. The SPC has a moderate risk for severe storms Across a large part of Pennsylvania most of New York State into western New England. The best time for severe storms will be during the afternoon into the evening.

The region is going to have a variety of temperatures this week North of the boundary Will be slightly cooler While temperature south the boundary will be quite warm. We will have a call from approaching out of Canada Thursday  and Friday. This front is going to be weakening As it drops into the region. But it could still produce a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are going to cool off a bit behind this front. Saturday is going to remain slightly unsettled and then on Sunday another cold front is going to be approaching the region The cold front looks to be passing through  in the afternoon into Sunday night. With the front we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms. Temperatures are going to drop a lot behind this front and will likely be below average for this time of year. There will be a chance for some snow showers across parts of the region Especially in the higher elevations. After a very warm week a return to cold temperatures is going to be quite a shock to the system.

I've been talking quite a bit about El Nino. Starting second part of next week or the week after We are going to start to see more in the way of an El Nino pattern developing as we transition from La Nina to El Nino. I will be making a post on this to put up at some point over the next couple of days.

Warming next week!

 Current conditions

There is strong high pressure extending out of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The cold front that went through is now off the coast of New England and is sitting just south of our region. Satellite is showing we have a lot of cloudiness Over a large part of New York state and northern into central new England. There is more in the way of a mix of sun and clouds Over Pennsylvania Southern New England and  the northern Middle Atlantic region.

Conditions across the region have temperatures  a little cool, but the light rain that fell as the front moved across the region is over and is dry today. The high pressure centered up over the eastern Great Lakes is going  to be dropping south and east heading towards the coast. Tomorrow that cold front is going to start head back north as a warm front.  As the high pressure moves across and eventually off-shore we're going to see more of a southern flow that's going to allow temperatures to warm a bit for our Sunday.

We're going to see a series of weak little disturbances roll through for much of next week. These are going to keep things unsettled.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Next week

As that warm front lifts northward for Sunday and Monday it will bring some rain showers. Even though it's going to be cloudy on Monday temperatures are going to spike and become much warmer.  Then for later Sunday through Monday as the other part of the system with a cold front approaches. When's will become more gusty. We're going to see more in the way of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms. The warming trend is going to continue, but the rain and thunderstorms will still be around for Tuesday, Isolated storms could be on strong side; as these disturbances keep rolling through.  Wednesday looks to be a bit unsettled Across New York State into northern and maybe central New England as another disturbance moves across Canada. Much of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey should escape most of the unsettled conditions. Accompanying this system we're going to see a slightly stronger cold front approaching and dropping across the region on Thursday. Ahead of the front temperatures are going to become very warm, due to gusty southern winds. As the cold front advances we're going to see rain showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the frontal boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to severe.

Images below courtesy of tropical tidbits

Even though next week is going to be active and unsettled. Monday will be the beginning of a warming trend. As the week goes on It's going to feel more like summer than spring. With Thursday likely being the warmest day of the week. Behind the front we are going to cool off a little bit For friday into the weekend.