Return of the heat and a look at the tropics

The surface chart and radar

 

 

We can see high pressure building south, providing lots of sunshine and above average temperatures. But we do have a frontal boundary hanging out over the Delmarva.  Along that boundary, we do have scattered rain showers. This boundary is going to be bouncing around for much of this week, keeping things unsettled. We also have a weather pattern sitting over North America called an Omega Block.   It’s called this because the jet stream from west to east sets up into what looks like the Greek letter omega. The block causes the typical east-west flow of the jet stream systems to move slowly around it for several days, leading to the day after day weather systems hanging around across the country. Here’s a look at the 500 mb anomaly chart from tropical tidbits.  I’ve drawn on the chart the omega shape in the flow.

 

What this means for us here in our region; is we’re going to see a series of shortwave disturbances drop out of Canada and move across the Northeast. 

This is going to help the frontal boundary keep things very unsettled.  

Tomorrow will feature increasing clouds and scattered rain showers as a backdoor cold front slide through later in the day out of Canada.  This will be the first of two surges of Canadian air; this will make for Thursday into Friday to cool back off with temperatures becoming seasonal for this time of year. With the trough isolated to scattered pesky rain showers will be an issue. The rain will be a bigger issue for southern Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic, but even here the showers should be light. Friday during the day won’t be too bad as high pressure will be pushing in. Then for later Friday and Saturday a more robust system with a cold front will bring rain showers to the region. It is also going to produce a stronger surge of cool air into the Northeast over the weekend. Along with the rain will be the chance for wet snowflakes mixing across the   higher peaks of the Adirondacks, Greens and White Mountains Friday night into Saturday. Some interior valleys could also see some frost. But that should be isolated.

Sunday will see high pressure return providing the nicest day of the weekend, with temperatures turning a bit milder. Then on Monday we will see another of low pressure centered to our south bring back the rain showers into the region. On Tuesday this area of low pressure will be sliding off the Middle Atlantic Coast and will be intensifying. This will keep interior parts of the region unsettled, with more in the way of widespread rain showers over the northern Middle Atlantic and Southern New England.

 The tropics

We do have a large area of rain out over the Central into eastern Gulf of America. But this won’t develop into anything tropical.

We have a front that is dropping south and east into the Gulf. This is going to interact with a disturbance currently in the Western Caribbean and tug it to the north. The SSTs in this area are warm enough to support tropical development. 

Image Credit Tropical Tidbits 

 This will track into the eastern Gulf toward Florida and southern Atlantic coast. The odds of this becoming Arthur are very low, but it is likely to bring some wind and locally heavy rain across parts of the Florida Peninsula for the final weekend of May into early June.

Didn’t feel like the “unofficial” start to summer

 

Memorial Day and quick post on the week ahead!

Surface Chart and Radar

Saturday and Sunday we’re cool and wet.  Over the holiday weekend 1-4 inches of rain fell across the region.

Today, we had a coolish start with lingering rain. But then drier air worked in, and we saw some afternoon clearing, allowing the day became nicer for most of us. But rain is lingering south of the Mason Dixon Line. Our temperatures during the day were still on the cool side of average.

Tuesday will be the nicest day of the week, sunny, very warm but breezy.  The day starts out a bit cool but looks dry for most of us with temperatures becoming above average. There is a chance for a few scattered showers in the Middle Atlantic closer to the frontal boundary. The warm and dry conditions will continue into Wednesday.  But after Tuesday we will be dealing with series of disturbances moving through. The first will be on Wednesday will see a cold front approach and will drop into the region out of Canada. With the frontal passage we will see variable clouds with isolated to scattered showers. The front will be moisture starved any showers should be quick and light. We’re going to see a regional cooldown with the frontal passage, with temperatures returning to seasonal along with lower humidity levels as well,

For Thursday and Friday, we will be dealing with a trough hanging around the region, keeping things seasonally cool and unsettled.  Later Friday into Saturday a more organized system will move into the region, with rain developing Friday night into Saturday.

This weekend will see the chance for a few showers, but Sunday will be the better of the two days. Then a better chance for rain moves in for Monday.

 

We must remember the heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice to ensure our freedoms. Their courage, sacrifice, and love for freedom can never be forgotten.

What about the first half of Summer?

 

I’m thinking of making changes to the way I report the near-term forecast. Due to the lack of views, I’m considering not posting so often on the weekly outlook. Based on the few views they get, I can only assume most of y’all don’t want them. But my seasonal and longer-term outlooks fare much better with many more views.  So, any feedback y’all what to give, would be great, as I do these post for all y’all.

This post is going to touch on El Nino and global SSTs along with the idea if of what the pattern is showing for the first half of Summer.

 This week is looking to continue this persistent overall coolish temperature profile.

 El Nino

 

Image Credit Coral Reef Watch.

 Probabilistic strength forecast

NOAA is getting increasingly bullish on the idea of a very strong El Nino

The Climate Prediction Center has us in an El Nino watch with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific at average to above average levels. Its sill looks very likely that they will soon declare an official El Nina in June or maybe July.

El Nino is highly likely to develop soon, with an 82% chance during May–July 2026. The CPC has a 96% chance it continues through winter 2026–27

Remember El Nino is characterized by a positive Relative Oleanonic Nino Index (RONI) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. while La Nina: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

Also, it’s important to remember that to be classified as a full-fledged El Nino or La Nina episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. The CPC considers El Nino or La Nina conditions to occur when the monthly relative Nino 3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Image Credit CPC

Looking at the current conditions in the four Nino zones. We can see that El Nino thresholds have been reached.

 

Image Credit WeatherBell Analytics

The westerly trade winds have increased in the eastern and central Pacific; this is another favorable El Nino signal. As they push the warm water due to the recent La Nina back to the east.

 

We can see that warm SST anomalies dominate the central/eastern Pacific. While cooler SST anomalies persist in the western Pacific.

 

Image Credit CPC

This is all showing upper‑ocean heat content is above average and is consistent with early El Nino development.

 

Image Credit CPC

Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have strengthened in the east‑central and eastern Pacific.

Cyclonicwx

 

Images Credit Cyclonicwx

We can see those subsurface temperature anomalies are quickly heading for the surface, once they do, El Nino is going to take off like a racehorse.

Alex Boreham has a great site, if you like that kind of info, check it out!

 

Pacific SST Analysis

 

Image Credit Coral Reef Watch.

A large part of the Pacific is seeing above average SST.

This winter could see the subtropical jet become very active. If that is the case, there could be an increased risk for Coastal/Nor’easter type storms, making things more interesting for sure!

 

Atlantic SST Analysis

 

Image Credit Tropical Tidbits 

The Atlantic basin is warm with the Gulf, northern Caribbean, and western Atlantic seeing slightly to above average temperatures, the eastern tropical Atlantic into southern Caribbean is cooler than average closer to Africa, but that is going to continue to warm as we move through hurricane season.  This is why, my 2026 hurricane outlook is calling for average to above average activity this season, in spite of it being an El Nino year.

Link to my HurricaneOutlook.

 A sidebar

NOAA’s National Weather Service release their 2026 hurricane outlook a few days ago. They are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s and most of the other outlooks are showing a slightly less active season than I’m showing.

 

MJO

 

The MJO is looking to head into Phase 8 and Phase 1. This means we will likely see ridging develop over the Great Lakes as well as off the Eastern Seaboard. This is going to help us stay a bit coolish for the foreseeable future

The pattern

 

We’ve seen a very persistent Pattern during the entire Spring. This pattern looks to be extending into the Summer.

So, far this year we’ve seen a lot of ridging over the western U.S., with stubborn troughing over the eastern U.S.

 

The Bermuda High has been expanding west.  We’ve also had the western flow moving over and under that western ridge due to several shortwave troughs coming off the Pacific. This has resulted in all the rain and severe weather in parts of the Plains and Midwest.

 

June and July

Link to my SummerOutlook

In my Summer Outlook I said, this Spring into the Summer is likely to be overall cool. So far that is been the case. So far, I see nothing that is changing my thoughts. Here is what the EURO weekly is showing for June into July.  

 The next 7 days

 

Over the next couple of weeks

 

 

End of June into July

 

Images Credit WeatherBell Analytics

The model is supporting the idea that I’ve been talking about for the last few months.

That doesn’t mean we’re not going to see warm to hot days. It just means that overall temperatures will favor the cooler side. This will be based on the 30 year temperature anomalies for this time of year.

Conclusion

The Pacific is transitioning from ENSO‑neutral and quickly toward El Nino, with strong supporting signals in SSTs, subsurface heat profiles, and atmospheric patterns.

There is very high confidence that El Nino will dominate the 2026–27 winter, with potential for a strong event.

U.S. seasonal patterns are already showing early atmospheric shifts consistent with this transition.

Have a great rest of your Sunday

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235

 

SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   205 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Connecticut
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and track eastward
   across the watch area through the afternoon and evening.  Hot and
   unstable conditions will lead to conditions supportive of damaging
   wind gusts in the strongest storms.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
   Wilmington DE to 25 miles southeast of Groton CT. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27030.

   ...Hart

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234

 

SAW4 
   WW 234 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 201640Z - 210000Z
   AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   95WSW MRB/MARTINSBURG WV/ - 45E CXY/HARRISBURG PA/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /23E EKN - 26SSW ETX/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

   LAT...LON 39667961 41017599 39417599 38077961

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU4.

Watch 234 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 234

VALID 201925Z - 202040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE EKN
TO 40 W MRB TO 30 S AOO TO 15 W UNV.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 805

..CHALMERS..05/20/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DCC001-202040-

DC 
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 
$$


MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-202040-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL	     BALTIMORE		 CARROLL	     
CECIL		     FREDERICK		 HARFORD	     
HOWARD		     MONTGOMERY 	 PRINCE GEORGES      
WASHINGTON	     


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY	     
$$


PAC001-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-097-099-107-109-
133-202040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     COLUMBIA		 CUMBERLAND	     
DAUPHIN 	     FRANKLIN		 FULTON 	     
HUNTINGDON	     JUNIATA		 LANCASTER	     
LEBANON 	     MIFFLIN		 NORTHUMBERLAND      
PERRY		     SCHUYLKILL 	 SNYDER 	     
YORK		     
$$


VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187-
510-600-610-660-683-685-840-202040-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON	     CLARKE		 CULPEPER	     
FAIRFAX 	     FAUQUIER		 FREDERICK	     
GREENE		     LOUDOUN		 MADISON	     
PAGE		     PRINCE WILLIAM	 RAPPAHANNOCK	     
ROCKINGHAM	     SHENANDOAH 	 WARREN 	     




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA	     FAIRFAX		 FALLS CHURCH	     
HARRISONBURG	     MANASSAS		 MANASSAS PARK	     
WINCHESTER	     
$$


WVC003-023-027-031-037-065-071-202040-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY	     GRANT		 HAMPSHIRE	     
HARDY		     JEFFERSON		 MORGAN 	     
PENDLETON	     
$$


ANZ530-531-532-535-538-539-202040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD 

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD 

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD 

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD 

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR 

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Relief is upon us!

 It been hot over the last couple of days, but that is about to change

Surface Chart and Radar

It been hot over the last couple of days, but that is about to change

The surface chart and radar show the front advancing into the western part of the region with scattered rain showers associated with a trough ahead of it.

Temperatures are very warm to hot ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. Behind the front temperatures are running 20° F to near 40° F cooler than they are ahead of the front.  

As the front continues to advance, showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. 

Image curtesy of SPC

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The biggest threat is going to be the possibility of damaging wind gust and moderate to perhaps large hail, with the higher humidity, heavy downpours and frequent vivid lightning will be possible. the risk for tornadoes is very low, but it's no zero. 

Tomorrow the cold front is going to slow even more and slowly sink through the Northern Middle Atlantic, with rain moving along it. Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey will be dealing with the rain the longest.  Tomorrow into Friday, high pressure will build in providing mainly dry conditions and much more sun.

We’re going to see a trough up over the Great Lakes move toward and into the Gulf of Maine. At the same time a warm front will push north and east, but it won’t get too far. This will set up a frontal boundary that will lead to unsettled conditions for the holiday weekend, with rain showers later Friday through the weekend into Monday.  Saturday and Sunday will be the wettest of the holiday weekend. But rain showers will linger into Monday.

 

That’s it…. No post for the next few days. 

Still Hot, but cooler weather is around the corner!

Today we’re all dealing with summer like heat along with some humidity.  Most of us will approach or set new record high temperatures. With the heat and humidity, it's going to feel like mid-summer.

 Look at the current surface chart and radar. 

We can see the warm front has pushed into Canada and northern Maine. The southern flow is driving in plenty of heat with most of y’all seeing temperatures in the upper 80’s into the upper 90’s. The higher dew points will make it feel warmer than that.  We can also see that strong cold front out west that is approaching our region. As this gets closer and starts to run into all this heat, out ahead of it we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop, some of these will be strong to severe. Here is a look at today’s convective outlook for today.

Image curtesy of NWS/NOAA 

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

This afternoon severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over northwest Pennsylvania, western and northern New York State. The biggest threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. But with the humidity, frequent lightning and heavy downpours are also going to be a concern. The tornado risk is low, but a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible. The severe threat is going to extend into tonight as these move west to east. Way out ahead of the front there is a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon – a couple of these could be strong to severe.

We do have a few shortwave troughs that could be the focus for a few thunderstorms, this will be especially true for eastern Pennsylvania into Maryland Delaware New Jersey as well as New York City and Long Island. 

Wednesday 

As the cold front approaches, the Hudson Valley and eastern Pennsylvania, a few showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be late morning and into the early afternoon. The as the front is dropping south and east into the lower Hudson Valley, southern New England, southwest Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic later Wednesday afternoon into the evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to flare up again with the potential of damaging wind gusts and large hail. 

End of the week and through the weekend.

 Behind the cold front, temperatures will turn noticeably cooler with the front pushing away Thursday is looking to be a mostly dry day with a mix of clouds and sun. The High pressure will continue into Friday. But on Friday we will be watching a frontal boundary to the south, try and push north, bringing a chance for rain showers into Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania. We also going to have a Canadian High Pressure centered up over the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure in the Gulf of Maine.  Between the high pressure and the slowly advancing frontal boundary, it’s going to keep us very cool and unsettled through the Memorial Day Weekend. For Memorial Day Monday, the boundary should be pushing north and west most of the region could see lingering showers, but up over New England scattered rain showers are likely. 

That’s it 

The heat is on, with hazy, hot, and humid conditions

 

Look at the current surface chart and radar.

We’ve had a hard time finding warmth this Spring. But Temperatures are going surge into the 80s and 90s at least for a couple of days.

Looking at the surface chart we can see that backdoor cold front over New York State and southern New England.  Radar is showing a few rain showers up over areas near the Canadian Border into Maine. We can also see rain and thunderstorms to our west, associated with that strong cold front moving into the Midwest. 

We’re going to see the southeast ridge advance north. This is going to push that stationary front back north as a warm front.

The Storm Prediction Center has two areas highlighted as Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorm with the risk strong damaging wind gusts. The first is northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State and areas east of Lake Ontario. The second is across central Pennsylvania.

The cold front is going to continue to approach tomorrow, that southwest flow is going to ensure the heat and humidity is in full swing. As the heat pushes even warmer.  The region will see the heat surge from the mid 80’s into the upper 90’s across the region.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

As the front pushes into the heat and higher dewpoints, we’re going to see a higher risk for severe weather across part of the region. The SPC has a Slight Risk across northern Vermont and down across northern, central and western New York State. The Marginal Risk stretches from northwest Maine to northern Pennsylvania. The severe threat will be greatest beginning Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. The biggest risk from these scattered severe thunderstorms will be strong damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. But there is also the risk for a few isolated tornadoes.

Wednesday will see the cold front continue to push through allowing the scattered showers and thunderstorms to advance with it.  The severe risk will move over New England into southeast New York State, New Jersey as well as southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk over these areas, but there is a chance they could upgrade the risk.

 

 

Behind the cold front a much cooler air mass will move into the region. Temperatures will be dropping west to east on Wednesday. This will continue for Thursday and the Weekend. As temperatures return to seasonal levels. But it won’t get cool enough to cultivate frosts and freezes in the Middle Atlantic region.