An overall nice Labor Day Weekend!

 

The Northeast will have an overall nice weekend, but it will be a touch cool.  Also, there will be a few passing showers or thunderstorms for some of y’all across the region.

 

Surface Chart and Radar

 

 

Today

As the cold front slides slowly south and out of the region, the showers and storms should be across Southern Pennsylvania and Central and Southern New Jersey and points southward. The farther north you are the more sun you will see. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey at a Slight Risk for the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong, damaging wind gusts (Wind could gust above 70 mph) and heavy rain will be the primary hazard within these storms, though isolated hail, frequent lightning. With the heavy downpours localized flash and urban flooding is very possible.

 The Holliday Weekend

Things are looking to be mostly dry Labor Day weekend with slightly below to seasonal temperatures and lower humidity. But we will have an Upper-Level-Low sitting south of Atlantic Canada. The trough will see weak disturbances rotate around the ULL, bringing the chance for very isolated brief showers. But most of the time from Saturday through Monday the region should be dry. Those will the best chance of seeing these showers will be in New England

Next Week

A front dropping out of Canada will pass through Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring scattered rain showers during the overnight into Tuesday. We will also see cooler temperatures move in as well. Then on Wednesday high pressure will setup briefly as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will slide through on Thursday producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

The September 2nd severe outbreak

Image curtesy of Aaron Gillies

A mothership supercell moved through Western New York, producing six tornado warnings and widespread wind damage.  The name come from the massive, rounded, low‑hanging cloud base and distinctive layered, UFO‑like appearance.

The National Weather Service storm dispatched survey teams on Thursday to assess damage caused by severe thunderstorms and have so far confirmed 7 tornadoes.

NWS Binghamton confirmed an EF1 near Waterloo in Seneca County, NY. It had max winds of 95 mph with a track of between 6 and 7 miles with a max width of 250 yards.

 the other confirmed by Binghamton was an EF2 tornado near Fayette also in Seneca County. It had winds up to 115 mph and tracked 7.76 miles with a max width of 200 yards. 

NWS Buffalo confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Medina, Orleans County, NY. It had estimated winds of 105 mph and tracked 1.20 miles with a max width of 200 yards.

Another confirmed tornado by Buffalo was an EF-1 east of Alexander Genesee County, NY. It had estimated winds of 110 mph and tracked 3.78 miles with a max width of 150 yards.

Buffalo confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Olcott, NY, Niagara County, NY. It had estimated winds of 105 mph and tracked 0.67 miles with a max width of 70 yards.

EF-1 tornado was confirmed by Buffalo in Castile Wyoming County, NY. It had estimated winds of 105 mph and tracked 1.22 miles with a max width of 300 yards.

EF-1 tornado was confirmed by Buffalo in Castile (near Letchworth State Park) Livingston County, NY. It had estimated winds of 110 mph and tracked 1.25 miles with a max width of 130 yards.

Both offices also confirmed several microbursts.

I expect more data and information to be released today. 

Drought Outlook

Looking at the side-by-side map, conditions continued to improve in the Mid-Atlantic Region and southern New England but deteriorated over parts northern New England and sections of upstate New York State. The good news is that we can see extreme drought was erased from the Northeast and severe drought was removed from New Jersey, while moderate drought and abnormal dryness shrank in the region’s southeastern corner. However, severe and moderate drought expanded in Maine, while abnormal dryness grew in coverage in Maine, New Hampshire, and northern into Central and western New York State.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released yesterday showed 0% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 3% in severe drought, 15% in moderate drought, and 25% as abnormally dry compared to less than 1%, 2%, 14%, and 23%, respectively, last week.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2218

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western
   Maryland...and far northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

   Valid 032016Z - 032215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern
   Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial
   wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the
   evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in
   regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a
   few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs
   continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting
   supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour
   or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering
   of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines
   appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the
   potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into
   central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the
   afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent
   mesoanalysis estimates).

   ..Moore.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689
               39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158
               40728172 40888169 41068148 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650

 

SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   435 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Maryland
     Western and Central Pennsylvania
     Eastern West Virginia

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe storm clusters are expected to
   move into the region from the northwest and impact the region this
   evening, with wind damage as the most common hazard.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of
   Williamsport PA to 35 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...WW 648...WW 649...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   31025.

   ...Guyer

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649

 

 SEL9

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   300 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern and Eastern Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia
     Lake Erie

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
   across the region the remainder of the afternoon, with the
   development of east/southeastward-moving clusters. This will be
   ahead of what could be a more prominent linear cluster moving
   southeastward into the region out of southeast lower Michigan, which
   could cross northern/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania through
   early evening. Damaging winds will be the most concern severe
   concern.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
   statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
   Mansfield OH to 15 miles east northeast of Latrobe PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...WW 648...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   31025.

   ...Guyer

Yesterday was very active.

Yesterday and last night was very active. This was the result of a series of disturbances rotating around that heat dome anchored over the Central Mississippi Valley. There was an earlier round of showers and thunderstorms. These produced a lot of rain. Several inches of rain fell, with storms producing 1-2 inches of rain per hour. Then another stronger disturbance moved across New York State and Pennsylvania. This allowed things to reorganize During the evening a line of severe thunderstorms swept through western-central New York State and north-central Pennsylvania. The line produced widespread damaging wind and frequent in cases near continuous lightning, over 48,000 lightning strikes were observed. As the line pushed through many tornado warnings occurred, there was at least one confirmed tornado, and the NWS survey teams are looking at other areas.  There was a lot of flash flooding due to the training nature of the thunderstorms (storm cells repeatedly tracking over the same areas).   

 Surface Chart and Radar

 

 

We can see the cold front is prepared to drop into New York State. This will become semi stationary, with disturbances moving along it, bringing rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms. We can see the disturbance over the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes; this will roll through later today into the evening. Some of these will be strong to severe

Today

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has western Pennsylvania under an Enhanced Risk, with central/southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, into New Jersey at a Slight Risk for the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong, damaging wind gusts (Wind could gust above 70 mph) and heavy rain will be the primary hazard within these storms, though isolated hail, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes are also possible. With the heavy downpours localized flash and urban flooding is very possible.

Behind yesterday’s storms, the air is very humid, along to seasonal temperatures across New York State and New England. Across Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic, the air feels tropical with higher temperatures and humidity.  The tropical air will sag south as the cold front continues to slowly move south.

Stay weather aware, have a way to receive warnings. 

Rest of the Week

Storm chance continues tomorrow, this will be especially true over southwestern Pennsylvania, northern Maryland and southern Delaware. Where the NWS has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Far southern Maryland and Delaware and points South will be highlighted in a Slight Risk.  The good news is much of this unsettled pattern ends in time for Labor Day weekend. Saturday and continuing into Labor Day Monday, temperatures and humidity levels look to be seasonal, with plenty of dry time. But those troughs will be close by, so a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out.  Tuesday will see a warm front lift into the region allowing temperatures and humidity to start to climb.  The next chance for rain appears on Wednesday, as a cold front approaches and move in over the region.

 

Tornado Watch Number 645

 

The watch will be in effect until 11:00 PM

The watch means tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. Think about and go over your emergency plans. Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching.

NWS statement

“SEL5

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   Tornado Watch Number 645

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   440 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

 

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

 

   * Tornado Watch for portions of

     Western and Central New York

     Lake Erie

     Lake Ontario

 

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM

     until 1100 PM EDT.

 

   * Primary threats include...

     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible

     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2

       inches in diameter possible

 

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose some threat for large

   hail and perhaps a few tornadoes as they move eastward late this

   afternoon and evening across parts of western and central NY. A

   strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least

   semi-discrete this evening. Thunderstorms will likely grow upscale

   into a bowing cluster later this evening, with a greater threat for

   scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph.

 

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles

   east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Watertown NY

   to 60 miles east of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the

   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

   and possible warnings.

 

   &&

 

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 643...WW 644...”

Enhanced Risk!!!

 The SPC has upgraded western New York State to an Enhanced Risk

 

 The risk for these Strong to Severe, Storms will increase quite a bit later afternoon into tonight.  There is a chance that SPC expands the risk even farther. 

Nocturnal severe storms are as dangerous as daytime storms. The but due to reduced visibility as well as people sleeping the storms pose a larger threat and it makes them more than twice as deadly. Make sure to have a way to receive warnings.

 

Severe threat continues

  

Surface Chart and Radar

 

 

Today

We can see that semi stationary frontal boundary hanging over New York State and Pennsylvania.  North and east of the boundary it will be cooler, while south and west will be warmer. The air is going to feel very humid. On radar we can see that bowing mesoscale convective system (MCS) (organized group of thunderstorms) in the center of that bowed echo we could have some high winds. Today we’re likely to see at least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms that move along the boundary. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy downpours, but hail, frequent lightning and a tornado or two are also possible. the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region.  I’ve already posted on the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Mesoscale Discussion.

Stay weather aware.

  

Rest of the Week

Thursday and Friday

We’re going to see the boundary become a cold front that will start to push south. Behind the front cooler and less humid air will move in, the warmth and humidity will linger ahead of the front.  Closer to and south of the boundary there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, while areas north of the boundary it will be much drier, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Again, there will be the risk for severe storms.   As the front drifts south, the cooler air and lower humidity will sag south with it.

 

Labor Day Weekend

Right now, if the frontal boundary cooperates and stalls out to our south, the weekend will be mostly dry with lower humidity; as an area of high pressure builds south and east out of eastern Canada and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. But we will be dealing with a trough nearby, so there will be the chance for a few isolated showers.  as currently planned, we'll enjoy a drier and comfier start to the upcoming holiday weekend. For Labor Day Monday we should have seasonal temperatures for early September with comfortable temperatures and low humidity.

Next Week

Tuesday and Wednesday that high pressure should still be hanging around, keeping things fairly tranquil, with only a threat for isolated showers. Later Wednesday into Thursday and cold front will be approaching out of Canada.

Tropics

Tropical Depression Edouard.

Currently his max sustained winds are 35 mph, central pressure of 1004mb and he is moving north northwest at 5 mph

I added the 5-12 inch on the image.

Edouard’s heavy rain is moving inland. There is a localized significant flooding risk, localized rainfall amounts of 5-12 inches will be possible.

Besides Edouard the Atlantic is quiet.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2198

 

Mesoscale Discussion 2198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania and Maryland

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...

   Valid 021509Z - 021615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized storm cluster in Pennsylvania could persist
   into Maryland as the low levels warm, and a downstream watch will
   likely be needed before 16z.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS with ~50 kt rear inflow jet is moving
   southeastward from central PA and will approach the MD border by
   about 16z.  Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
   suggest strong surface heating is ongoing to the south of the MCS
   cloud shield, roughly along and south of a northwest-southeast
   oriented baroclinic zone that extends across the northern Chesapeake
   Bay area.  The phasing of the MCS with the diurnal heating cycle
   suggests the potential for the storms to be maintained into at least
   early afternoon into MD as destabilization continues, and a new
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour.

   ..Thompson.. 09/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40507711 40157669 39607606 39057588 38777605 38687651
               38897722 39427791 39667815 40007842 40297828 40307763
               40507711 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642

SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   925 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central and South-Central Pennsylvania

   * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 925 AM
     until 200 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster will likely continue moving quickly
   southeastward this morning and early afternoon while posing a threat
   for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Isolated hail may also
   occur with any stronger cores on the western flank of the cluster.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest
   of State College PA to 45 miles southwest of Harrisburg PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   31040.

   ...Gleason

The Atlantic season has been lack luster so far.

Tropical Storm Edward made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana at around 2:20 pm, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 996mb.  The Bayou is on a barrier island and is about 28 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.  When I lived in Texas, I was there many times to go through the Bird and Butterfly Sanctuary. The bayou is very beautiful. Edward will weaken quickly, bringing heavy rain and flood concerns.

 So far, the season has seen 5 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Arthur made a landfall near Galveston, Texas and brought significant rain to parts of the Gulf coast and Southeastern United States in mid-June. Tropical Storm Bertha in July had two Gulf Coast landfalls, the first was St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana and the second was near the Louisiana and Texas border. Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the middle of this month and because of hostile conditions only lasted 24 hours. Dolly was the season's fourth named storm, Dolly remained a tropical storm for only a few hours, before wind shear, dust and dry air tore her apart.

The lack of a lot of Atlantic tropical activity is not surprising if you have followed my blog post over the last few months, you already knew it would be. Stronger El Ninos typically results in hostile wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction), in the Atlantic Basin. This increase in wind shear can shred storms before they even develop, or as we’ve seen this season weaken storms that do form. Saharan dust has been another factor suppressing activity. Saharan Air Layer is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer and early fall, resulting in unfavorable conditions for tropical development.

The number of named storms isn’t the only metric to look at. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is another way to measure how active the season has been. ACE, is used to not just count storms, but also how long each storm lasts and how strong each becomes. Adding the ACE of each storm gives us one measure of how active a season is.

In terms of ACE, it's been the slowest-starting Atlantic hurricane season since 1998, as of this writing Atlantic ACE stands at 4.1. The average ACE unit measurement in the North Atlantic for September 1st is about 36 to 40 units. So, we can see the ACE is well below average.

 We have to remember; a quieter hurricane season doesn't necessarily mean to drop your guard this season. It only takes one destructive landfall, or even a slow-moving, flood-producing weaker tropical storm to make a season memorable.

 Hurricane Andrew provides the classic warning. The 1992 Atlantic season produced only seven named storms, but Andrew struck South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane and became one of the country’s most defining natural disasters in history.

Hurricane Bob was the first hurricane of the 1991 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bob reached peak winds of 115mph to the east of Virginia, before weakening and slamming into Block Island, Rhode Island. Then about 40 minutes later, he made a 2^nd landfall at Newport Rhode Island, with winds of 100mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Bob still ranks as the most powerful landfalling hurricane from the last five strong or very strong "super" El Nino seasons of 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, and 2015. No hurricane has made landfall in New England since Bob.

Both of these show a season that seems subdued can become dangerous. It only takes one storm taking the right track, or wrong track, depending on how you look at it, to make it an active and memorable season. 

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Fall

  

Surface Chart and Radar

 

 

 

The stalled front that was draped over New York State and Pennsylvania, is now slowly sliding back north and east.  This is going to waver back and forth over the next few days. Along the boundary waves of showers and thunderstorms will move along it. Some of these storms will be strong to severe.  This boundary is going to be separating the cooler continental air from the warmer tropical air.    

 

Today

We have a northwest flow out of the Great Lakes and Canada. The flow shows up very well on Satellite.  We’re going to see scattered showers and thunderstorms, but it won’t be a washout. Some of these storms will become severe. These storms will be capable of strong damaging winds, heavy downpours, hail, frequent lightning and there is the small chance for an isolated tornado.  The higher temperature and humidity will be very noticeable.  

 

Rest of the Week

Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat, as the boundary meanders north and south. Scattered Showers and thunderstorms can be expected. With some of the storms becoming strong to severe. Again, temperatures and humidity will be high.

 

Wednesday night into Thursday a cold front will be approaching, it will be bopping with the semi stationary front and start to push it south. Behind the front cooler and drier air will be moving in. Thursday will see the cold front slowly move through.  We can expect widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms, again some of these will be strong to severe.  As this slides south, partly to mostly sunny skies will be to the north, with cloud cover and showers to the south.  Friday will see the cold front push even farther south, with the scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe.  For Saturday and Sunday, a couple of troughs will be around, keeping the threat for isolated showers alive. But the vast amount of the weekend will be dry. Over the weekend temperatures and humidity will be cooler.  Labor Day Monday should be mostly dry, with only the threat for isolated showers. Tuesday will see a cold front approach, and slide through, bring back the threat for scattered showers and what looks like non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Tropics

Tropical Storm Edouard.

 

Edward is strengthening and currently has max sustained winds of 50 mph, with a central pressure of 1000mb. He is tracking northwest at around 8 mph.  Edouard looks like he will slowly intensify before landfall, as his center starts to get its act together. Landfall is looking to be near the border of Texas and Louisiana, This afternoon. By then he could be a strong tropical storm, time is very limited for Edward to become a hurricane. But stranger things have happened.  Edward is going to bring heavy rain for southwestern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast extending inland across east-central Texas today, Wednesday into Thursday. General rain amounts of 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts of 6-12 inches will be possible. Edward’s slow speed increases the risk for scattered flash flooding

 

Have a great day!

 

El Nino Southern Oscillation update

 

Today the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP released their weekly update.

Moving forward, I will likely be posting on the update every week right up to the coming winter. The post on the long range seems to be very popular. So, I will follow all y’all’s lead.  

Looking at the current Pattern involving North America.

We can see the trough developing out west, with ridging continuing to slide east into Thursday. 

Current Conditions.   

Yesterday's SST from NOAA Coral Reef Watch.  The El Nino signature definitely stands out.   But we can also see a lot of the northern Pacific is warm as well. But the north Pacific is nowhere near as warm as it was last year.

Today's SST from Tropical Tidbits

Nino 4 is at 0.1ºC, Nino 3.4 is still at 1.8ºC, Nino 3 is at 2.6ºC, with Nino 1+2 being the warmest at 3.5ºC

 

 The central Pacific equatorial region has been cooling off, while the warmer water that was there has been drifting eastward.  A couple of weeks ago, the SST in Nino 1+2 were at +2.9°C. All of this shows up in the following image from the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP.

Subsurface water temperatures in the east Pacific are becoming warmer deep down 500-600 feet. This will mean the SST off of Peru will stay warmer for most if not all of Winter 2026-2027

During September-November through November-January 2026-27, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino. 

 

Central based El Ninos (CP) have the warmest sea surface temperature anomalies over the central Pacific, extending out toward the date line. Eastern based El Ninos (EP) are considered more in the way of a traditional El Nino and have the warmer SSTs closer to South America.  The convection that has been over the Central Pacific is going to shift into the eastern Pacific; this will have impacts down the road.

The El Nino does seem to still be leveling off. So, this El Nino might not end up quite as strong as many have been thinking. But it could also remain a strong El Nino right through the upcoming winter.

As I’ve been saying the temperature contrast between the northern Pacific and the warmer-than-average waters in the eastern Pacific will shift the Pacific jet stream southward, steering more storms over the southwest and toward the Gulf Coast, Southeast. This will increase the risk for disturbances to move up the Coast, increasing the risk for inland runners and coastal storms for the Middle Atlantic into the Northeast.

Both the 1972-1973 El Nino and the 1997–1998 El Nino were east-based, while the 2015-2016 El Nino was central based. So, 1972-1973 and 1997–1998 look to be better analogues for the upcoming winter.

 

 

Unsettled week ahead!

 Today

We have the backdoor cold front I talked about last week, dropping south and west out of New England, and is currently setting over New York State and Pennsylvania. the front will produce variable cloud cover with scattered showers.  Tonight the front will stall over the region with the continued threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for strong storms over western New York State

The winds will become southernly, this will allow for warmer and more humid conditions across the region.

Rest of the Week

 

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the dew points will continue to climb. This will increase the thunderstorm risk, for tomorrow thru Thursday. The temperatures and humidity will feel like Mid-August, in spite of it being meteorological fall.   

For Tuesday and Wednesday, we will be dealing with a semi-stationary frontal boundary. Both days will feature variable clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. Here’s a look at the SPC convective outlooks for both days. 

The primary threats will be strong damaging winds, large hail, along with the threat for heavy downpours, bringing a localized flooding risk.  There will also be a low-end tornado risk.  

 On Thursday scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a cold front clearing through Thursday. Some of these storms will be severe. The severe risk will extend into Friday for southwest Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. As a trough sets up over the region and pushes the storm track south. Again, the main risk will be damaging winds and hail.  The farther north you are (New York State and New England) the better your chance of seeing partly to mostly sunny skies. SPC day 4 and day 5. 

Behind the front we will see a drier and comfier pattern setup for the Labor Day holiday weekend. We will be dealing with some troughing for Saturday and Sunday, which could bring some isolated showers. But right now, both days are looking mostly dry and pleasant. High pressure looks to move in overhead for Sunday night and Labor Day Monday.

 Tropics

Remnants of Dolly

We still have the remnants of Dolly out in the Caribbean. There is a chance what’s left of Dolly will move into the eastern Gulf for Wednesday into the end of the coming week. Where it would have a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 10%

Invest 97L is now Potential Tropical Depression 5.

 It looks very impressive on satellite imagery, but it is still a tropical wave that is still developing, The NHC has the 2-day and 7-day odds of development at 80%. #5 is tracking west northwest in the direction of the Upper Texas Coast at 5 mph. The Min pressure is 1013mb, max sustained winds are 35 mph. The lack of a center means, the actual track is uncertain.  So, the upper Texas coast southwest Louisiana will have to keep a close eye on #5. Right now, this is a disturbance producing a lot of rain.

#5 looks to make a landfall tomorrow into early Wednesday

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

There isn’t going to be a lot of time for development, but a tropical storm or even the slight possibility of a hurricane can’t be ruled out. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding with 3 to 6 inches likely and the potential for 6 to 12 inches of rain for some. 

The next name on the list is Edouard

 Have a great rest of your day!