March 7th, 2025.

 

Long Range look at March.

 

 

March has been active and it will stay that way. We’re going to have several systems come through over the next 7 to 10 days, along with wild temperature swings.  The storm responsible for the wintery mess and all this wind is still up over the Canadian Maritimes, we’re it is still wrapping up, so the winds will be with us tomorrow as well.  Another storm is going to crash into the West Coast, this one looks to move into the Plains and become quite strong, then it looks to push toward the Great Lakes, with possible impacts similar to the one we’re dealing with now. Impacts will depend on the storms track.

Over the weekend it will be seasonally cold with a couple of weak disturbances move through bringing a chance for a few snow showers over northern parts of the region. Most areas will see a coating to perhaps 3 inches, with the higher elevations having a chance for 3 to 6 inches with possibly higher local amounts. The rest of the region will run the risk for a few rain showers.  Change your clocks ahead on hour when you go to bed, Saturday night. Sunday the winds will weaken a little. But then on Monday a fast-moving clipper, will bring snow/mix/rain along with a return of strong winds. Monday will be the beginning of a warming trend, so northern snows should end up changing over to rain.

Tuesday into Thursday is looking to see temperatures become very mild. But a backdoor cold front will be close by, so that could put a fly in the ointment; so, depending on where it ends up there could be a temperature divide across the region. We will also have to keep on eye on the storm in the Plains as we get into mid to end of next week.  Then there could be another big storm for next weekend into the following week.

 

 

The polar jet has weakened. So, we’re seeing these cold outbreaks move across the CONUS. These outbreaks will likely lead to more severe outbreaks, and U.S. northern tier snow over at least the next couple of weeks.  So, our current pattern looks to stick around for the foreseeable future.

 

March 6th, 2025.

 

The climb toward spring continues.

The system and cold front are pushing east. Today is going to be mild with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds will become very gusty into tomorrow.  There are wind advisories and high wind warnings in parts of the region, these will be effect for later today/tonight into tomorrow. Sustained winds of 15 to 30 mph, with gust of 4o to near 60 mph will be possible. The radar shows snow showers over western parts of the region, as the colder air starts to move in.  The colder air will move west to east slowly, so many of us will stay mild for the next few hours. Then the cold air will move through, snow will be light, with 1-3 inches possible in Parts of Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central New England. The higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites and northeast Maine could see 2-5 inches, with the Tug Hill picking up 3-8 inches of snow. Everyone else will pick up mostly all or all rain, with parts of the New England Coast seeing less than an inch.

Tonight, into tomorrow lake effect will be falling downwind of Lake Ontario. Winds will start to weaken on Friday ahead of another weak system rolling through late Friday into Saturday, this will bring the chance for scattered rain/snow showers. There could be some light accumulations across northern areas, especially in the higher elevations, with no accumulation south of there.  Temperatures over the Weekend will be seasonable.  Sunday will be fairly sunny, as high pressure sets up overhead, temperatures will warm a little, but they will still be chilly.

Monday will be a little warmer as a weak clipper passes to our north, dragging a weak trough through the region, there could be a few rain/mix/snow showers across northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New England, not expecting much in the way of accumulations, across the rest of Pennsylvania and northern Middle Atlantic there is only a slight chance for a few isolated showers.

Tuesday the warming trend continues, as high pressure stays over the region. Wednesday and Thursday it’s going to become very mild, Wednesday we will have a little disturbance pass to our north, this could bring rain/mix snow to far northern parts of the region but the rest of the region should stay dry.  Thursday will start dry, then we will be watching a storm approach from the west.

 

 

 

March 5th, 2025.

 

The chance for severe weather returns.

Strong Low Pressure heading into the Great Lakes, is pushing a warm front through the Northeast. Today is going to be quite mild and very breezy. We have a few snow showers up over Maine. But this will change over to all rain. We’re going to see widespread rain today, with the rain being moderate to heavy at times, general rain amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches with pockets of lower and higher amounts possible. This combined with snow melt will lead to the risk for flooding, here is a look at the warnings and advisories from “Pivotal Weather”, the areas in dark green show a Flood Watch and are most at risk for flooding, this will be especially true for poor drainage areas. There is also the risk for ice jams across parts of the region, so keep an eye on those streams and rivers.  

There will be the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. The winds aloft are very strong, there is a chance for these to mix down to the surface this afternoon and evening. We have a risk for thunderstorms, the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather over a large part of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey, With a Marginal Risk up into Western New York State, Northeast Pennsylvania, and much of the rest of New Jersey. With the strong winds aloft, thunderstorms will be capable of taping into that, leading to the risk for damaging wind gust upwards of 55 to 60 mph. Besides the wind threat, there is also a risk for hail and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

The cold front will move through Tomorrow, with the front we will be dealing with very gusty winds, Gust of 30 to 50 mph will be possible.  Tomorrow will continue to be very mild, with the cold air behind the front delayed a little. But temperatures will be falling, we’re going to see rain showers change over to flurries/ light snow showers and some mix during the day on Thursday into Friday morning; along with some lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario. Most will see little to no accumulations, but 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible across parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England, the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could see 3-6 inches of snow.

Friday will still be windy as the storm departs allowing high pressure to build in, providing more in the way of sun, despite the sun, Friday and the weekend will be quite chilly, with temperatures becoming seasonal, those downwind of Lake Ontario, will be dealing with lake effect snow. Saturday a weak system, will bring the chance for isolated rain showers for southern areas, and some snow showers over northern areas, it will still be windy. Sunday is looking to be seasonally cool but generally dry along with lessening wind. Monday a clipper will move through bringing southern rain showers and northern snow showers.  Behind the clipper, high pressure builds in for Tuesday. The high pressure looks stay overhead for Wednesday, by midweek, temperatures will become very mild once again.

 

March 4th, 2025.

 

One day closer to real spring.

Looking at the surface chart and radar; we can see, high pressure pushing east, along with a couple of warm fronts moving across the region. We can also see that our next storm continues to develop in the Central Plains as it heads for the Mississippi Valley.

Today the warming trend continues, but we’re dealing with more in the way of clouds. By this afternoon, temperatures are going to become above average. There will be a few snow/rain showers with these fronts. Most of us will see rain, but snow showers and a mix will be possible the further north you are. Most will see little to any snow accumulations, but the higher elevations across northern New York State and northern New England could see 1 to 3 inches of snow. This will likely change to some rain later today and tonight. Then tonight northern areas cool off to around freezing, this could lead to a bit of ice on roadways during the overnight into tomorrow morning.   

Tomorrow another warm front with gusty southwest winds will bring in even warmer weather, as the storm moves into the Great Lakes. The leading edge will likely be snow for northern areas, but this will change over to all rain fairly quickly, the rest of the region will be all rain.  Rain will be heavy at times; General rain amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 inches can be expected; some could see lower amounts along with pockets of higher amounts for others.  A large part of New York State could see some thunderstorms, New England could see a few rumbles of thunder as well, the risk for thunderstorms will be greater for Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware into New Jersey. Some isolated storms could be strong to severe, especially over southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Southern New Jersey, The major risk will be damaging winds, but hail and even an isolated tornado or two is possible.  

For Wednesday and Thursday winds will be very gusty with gust of 30-40 mph, Wind gust of 40 to 50 mph will be possible along the Coast. Thursday will see the storm pushing east, rain will end east to west, much of Thursday will see very mild temperatures continue; but has the cold air behind the cold front moves in there will be a change over to snow. This snow will move southwest to northeast across Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England.

With the melting snow and rain, there is the risk for flooding and especially ice jam flooding, so say aware.

Friday will be cold, with windy weather continuing. But away from the Great Lakes most of us should be dry, outside a few snow showers. But lake effect snow will be falling downwind of Lake Ontario.  The lake snows continue for Saturday as a weak area of low pressure passes to our south.  High pressure moves in for Sunday, but both Saturday and Sunday will be rather chilly. Monday a Clipper will approach and move through, bringing a chance for northern snow showers. Tuesday is looking to be dry.

 Remember the clocks move forward one hour on March 9^th, set your clocks ahead when you go to bed, Saturday night

 

 

 

 

 

March 3rd, 2025.

 

High pressure is overhead, providing sunshine and warming temperatures. Our next weather maker, is in the Plains; this will strengthen and head for the Great Lakes. The leading warm front, will ensure this warming trend continues for most of the week ahead.  Temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday will be above average for this time of year.

Tuesday will be warmer yet, as the warm front approaches and moves through, the southwest flow, will mean Wednesday and Thursday will be very mild. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, those closer to the Canadian border will be cold enough for a chance for a mix and some snow, 1-3 inches of snow on the onset, but as temperatures warm this will change to rain.  Wednesday into Thursday will be very wet with widespread rain, that will be heavy at times. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible, this will be especially true for eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware into southern New Jersey.  Some of these could be strong to severe, especially for Philadelphia and points south across Maryland, Delaware, into far southern New Jersey.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe weather in these areas. Wednesday and Thursday will be quite winding with gust of 30-45 mph possible.

General rainfall amounts of 0.50 to an inch are likely for many, but there will be pockets of places that see less than 0.50 inches and places that see 1-2 inches of rain.

Behind the cold front temperatures will quickly fall, allowing the northern half of the region to change over to some snow. The system with the cold front will be pushing away on Thursday, with clearing developing west to east, those in New England should see things winding down Thursday afternoon.

With the rain and mild temperatures there is the risk for flooding and ice jams.

Friday into the weekend will be colder. Friday looks to be quiet and blustery. But over the weekend a clipper with a series of troughs will work through, proving the risk for northern snow showers and rain showers in southern parts of the region. Sunday will temporarily see high pressure build in, then more shortwave troughs move through for Monday into Tuesday.

  

I was asked about my opinion on the firings at the NWS and NOAA

As many of you are aware, hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal employees at the National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were fired last week, by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

I don’t know which jobs were eliminated, but I guess some of the jobs involved at least probationary employees. As is the case with most jobs, when people graduate from atmospheric science schools, they still require on the job training.  So, with the younger Mets still learning a lot from the senior Mets, there could be ramifications down the road.

These agencies incorporate a multitude of forecasting and weather-related jobs and functions, including the Storm Prediction Center, the Hurricane Center, and 122 local weather forecast offices, that provide crucial weather data for the local meteorologists on TV, radio and even on social media. How this will impact severe weather alerts, such as tornado warnings and tornado watches as well as the upcoming hurricane season, remain to be seen, but I very well expect to see problems. These kinds of problems put people’s lives in danger.

Please refrain from a lot of political bickering.

 

March 2nd, 2025

 

A quick look at the week ahead

Today is cold and breezy, behind the clipper that brought rain a little mix and snow to northern areas, places like the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites have a general 3-6 inches with local amounts of 6-10 inches. The northwest breeze is making for frigid wind chills. We do have some lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario, as the winds become more northernly the lake bands will shift south of Lake Ontario.

Our next storm is moving ashore on the West Coast, this is going to track into south central Plains, with heavy snow north and west of the track, then it will head toward the Central Great Lakes heading into southeastern Canada. Starting Tuesday is going to be the start of a major severe outbreak for the south, this will head east for Wednesday into Thursday. But for us the storm is going to pull moisture from the Gulf of America and Atlantic northward into our region.

Tomorrow we’re going to start to warm up ahead of a warm front; the warm front will roll through for Tuesday into Wednesday. Thursday will continue the warm up, then the cold front will approach and move through leading to a cool down.

 By Tuesday We’re really going to warm up, with the warmth will come a lot of snow melt. For northern areas, the leading edge of the warm front could start as a bit of snow, before a change over to rain. With the fronts we’re going to see widespread rain for our region midweek, rain could be heavy at times. Many of us will see a general 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. Thunderstorms are possible for eastern Pennsylvania into Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into southern New England. Isolated strong to severe cells are possible for Maryland and Delaware.

The snowpack over a large part of New York State and into parts of northern into central New England, has 5 to 10 inches of water locked up; places that have a deep snowpack, have over 12 inches of water equivalence, so flooding is possibly going to become an issue, first for the streams and then into the rivers. Besides this, ice jam flooding could become a problem. Wednesday through Friday is going to be windy, with cooler seasonable temperatures and mainly drier weather behind the system, but there will be some lake effect falling downwind of the Big Lake.

February 28th, 2025

 Welcome to the last day of Meteorological Winter

 

The last system has departed, taking the cold front with it. But we have a secondary cold front dropping thru the region, but this only has a few scattered snow/rain showers with it. Today is chilly, satellite showers sun and clouds over the region.

We have our next clipper quickly approaching. The Clipper will past just to the north Friday night and Saturday.

Initially northern parts of the region will start out as snow. Like the last one, accumulations will be light, but the Saturday Clipper will be a bit stronger. So, snowfall accumulations will be a little higher.

Across New York State north of I-90 a general 1-4 inches of snow will be possible, with 2-5 inches in the higher elevations, the highest elevations could see 6-10 inches of snow. South of I 90, a dusting to an inch is possible the same general thyme for northern New England, for Vermont and New Hampshire a general 1-4 inches of snow is possible, with areas like the Greens and Whites seeing 2-6 inches, with the highest elevations seeing 6-10 inches.  For the sea Coast of Maine and New Hampshire a dusting to around an inch will be possible.  The rest of the region will likely see just rain.

Southwest winds will become gusty, as warmer air moves in, this will change most of the northern snow over to a mix and then Rain. As the system pulls east, the gusty winds will switch to the Northwest. Bringing in colder air, that will turn rain back over to some snow.

Sunday and Monday turn very cold, with lake effect falling downwind of the Great Lakes. Then we will start to warm later Monday, this warm up will last for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest we’ve seen so far. Then for midweek we will see a strong storm form in the Plains. This storm will continue to deepen as it heads for the Great Lakes. North and west of the track will see heavy snow, while this brings a severe weather outbreak to the South. With the storm heading into the Great Lakes, we will be on the warm side of the storm. This looks to be a widespread rainmaker. Rain could be heavy at times. There is a chance for some thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania into Middle Atlantic and southern New England. There is a chance very isolated strong cells.    

With the warm temperatures and rain, expect snow to be melting. Flooding and Ice Jams will likely become an issue at least on the local level.

Does NOAA delete or change past weather data?

 

Chuck Lewis, said Mark Darpino asked me to comment on  NOAA being entangled in a scandal involving NOAA manipulating data from past decades to change how temperatures and precipitation events are viewed currently. So since Mark, is asking, I'm sure others are asking the same thing; So I wanted to post the answer here.

Mark, the answer to your question is yes NOAA is changing past weather data.  NOAA says this is a conspiracy that they are manipulating the historical weather data. NOAA is saying that “The routine, public adjustments to records happen for good reason”.  But, if they are adjusting the record, then it isn’t a conspiracy but instead a fact.

Today weather data is collected through a network of weather stations, satellites and other monitoring tools, but decades ago weather was collected and recorded by hand. NOAA says “many of these records were recording things differently than others, so the raw historical data might not always reflect accurate or consistent conditions”. Could these adjustments be used to support global warming ideas and theories? My answer is maybe.

I think the original data should be safe guarded and remain in the record, with changes to that data added as a foot note. Otherwise, it is hard to judge the historical record when trying to compare data from the distinct past to current trends. This is especially true when it comes to the idea of climate change and how it is truly affecting our weather patterns.  

I want to point out, that I often take a look at state historical records when doing analogue forecasting. So, I would advise anyone who what’s to look at the past data. To remember there are a lot of states and organizations that record climate data. Use this to try and double check NOAA data.  

February 27th, 2025

 

I borrowed Chuck Lewis's map showing the general snowfall so far for the season.

The last several winters have been lack luster and warm. But this winter hasn’t had that issue, there have been abundant cold spells, including some that had a long duration.  The pattern has been active, for those east of Lake Ontario, snow events have been seemingly nonstop with snow falling just about every day.

Hundreds of buildings have collapsed over the last few weeks, due to the amount of Lake Effect snow, southeast and east of Lake Ontario.  Parts of the Tug Hill have seen up around 300 inches (25feet) to 360 inches (30 feet) of snow so far this season, With another 10 to 14 inches through this Saturday. Half of this has fallen during February alone.  Syracuse has seen around 105 inches of snow, with Buffalo and Rochester seeing around 82 and 76 inches.  

Snagged this from Bill Kardas at WKTV.

Across a large part of New England, snowfall is running a bit below average for this point in the season, due to the pattern having the general storm track to the south.  But parts of Vermont have done very well, according to their websites, Stowe has seen 266 inches and Jay Peak is reporting around 350 inches so far this season.

Looking at the weather into next week.

 

 

 

Currently we have low pressure over the Lake Ontario with an attached warm front lifting thorough the region. Ahead of the warm front we have snow, then as temperatures warm it chances over to a bit of mix and then rain, then change back to snow tonight into early tomorrow, for northern areas. Those northern areas in New York State and Vermont look to see a general 1-3 inches of snow, south of these areas will see a dusting to an inch, with the Adirondacks and Greens seeing 2-6 inches.  Snowfall totals will be highest along the foothills and Western Maine, where 4-6 inches is expected. Most communities along the interstate and Northern areas will see 2-4 inches, Northern and Central New Hampshire and Maine will see 2-4 inches with parts of Central New Hampshire into west central Maine seeing 4-8 inches, Coastal Maine, Coastal New Hampshire and northwest Massachusetts a dusting to an inch or two. The system will be pulling away from Maine this evening.   The rest of the region will be dealing with scattered rain showers.

Temperatures will continue to climb today. For most of us temperatures will remain mild tonight, so areas that see snow melting there will be advection fog again to deal with. But northern areas will drop back to near freezing so wet roads and surfaces could see a bit of black ice, so keep that in mind. There could be a few lingering rain/snow showers into early Friday morning.

We will have another little clipper system come through Friday afternoon into Saturday, this one will be similar to the one currently moving through, a few inches of snow for northern areas, with snow changing to a mix and then rain for most northern areas, but areas in the far northern parts of the region and much of Maine could hang on to the cold air long enough for it to say mostly or all snow. Again, southern parts of the region would stay all rain. The Friday into Saturday Clipper will have quite a bit of wind with it.  Behind the clipper much cooler air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday, northwest winds mean there will likely be some lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario and maybe even Lake Erie, with scattered rain/snow showers for the rest of us.

The colder temperatures will hang around into Monday, then we will see another warming trend begin later Monday and Tuesday.  Wednesday into Thursday we will be dealing with our next system, it will form in the Plans and become very strong. This is looking to be a major severe/tornado outbreak for the South. For us, this will be approaching from the west with a leading warm front. It looks to pass over the Great Lakes, so for the majority of our area this will be a widespread rain maker. Winds will likely be very gusty as well. The cold front will pass through later Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Rain could be heavy at times. Along with a chance for thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Rain will continue into Thursday, with widespread rain continuing. The storm will be departing during Thursday afternoon, with the cold air coming in behind the system, rain will be changing over to snow, for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England.

 

February 26th, 2025

 

 

We have high pressure overhead, with a northwest breeze bringing slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday, but they are still very mild for this time of year. We have a shortwave trough rotating through the region, with a stationary front to our north. There is an approaching area of low pressure approaching from the west, a leading warm front will move through this evening and tomorrow, ahead of the front we will see rain showers move into western Pennsylvania this afternoon, then this will move north and east today into tomorrow, due to this zonal flow. Northern areas could see things start as a bit of snow and or mix before temperatures warm changing snow over to rain. Accumulations will be light northern New York State and northern New England could see coating to 2 inches with perhaps a bit more in higher elevations. Most of us will see rain out of this with perhaps a quarter of an inch or so of rain.  As the cold front approaches northern areas seeing rain could change back over to some snow.

Behind the cold front cooler more seasonable air will move in for Friday. This cooler air will stick around for Saturday. Later Friday into Saturday our next clipper system will roll through. This one will be stronger than the first two this week, but looks to take a similar track to the one midweek.  Winds will be blustery and could be quite strong, with temperatures cooling off even more for Saturday night into Sunday. The weekend clipper will bring scattered rain showers to Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. Snow in northern areas should still be light, but accumulations could be a little higher, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could end up with upwards of 12 inches. 

Sunday will end up fairly tranquil for most, but lake effect will be falling downwind of the Great Lakes, temperatures will be cold. Monday will see temperatures warm, ahead of our next Clipper on Tuesday.

In the Spring Outlook I talked about the chance for a bigger storm between the 4^th and 10^th of March. Wednesday we will be watching a stronger storm approaching, this will likely bring heavy snow north and west of the track with a mix and rain south and east of the track. The question right now, is where the track will be.

At the moment, high pressure will build into the Plains. Then early next week energy will be coming onto the West Coast, the western trough is going to dig, with warm air ahead of the developing low, the system looks to become quite strong as it approaches the Ozarks.  How the storm tracks will depend on the trough orientation and how strong the storm becomes. This could end up being a big severe event in the south. The system could cut over the Great Lakes, This would bring heavy snow into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, leaving much of our region in the warm sector. So widespread rain would be a issue, along with embedded thunderstorms for eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Or it could come more east closer to the Coast, before cutting north and east over the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. If this happens Western Pennsylvania, New York State and northern into Central New England would end up with a lot of snow. Right now this could go either way.

 

February 24th, 2025

 

The weekend wasn’t too bad, temperatures started to warm up, winds were fairly light with more in the way of sunshine than we’ve see of late. Outside of a few scattered snow showers most of us were dry.

Today will see that warming trend continue, as a warm front lifts through the region. But winds are going to pick up out of the southwest, ahead of a weak system, winds with gusty of 30 to 50 mph will be possible through this evening.  This system will bring a little rain/ mix/ and northern snow to the region. northern areas could see 2-3 inches, especially in the highest elevations.

A 2^nd weak system will move through on Tuesday. This system will have a very weak cool front with it, so temperatures shouldn’t be all that effected. Again, there will be a chance for scattered rain for most of us, with a few mix/snow showers for some of us, this will mainly be in the high elevations. Rain will be very light and snow will have very light accumulations.

Wednesday high pressure will be overhead. But for Wednesday night and Thursday a clipper system will be approaching the Great Lakes. This will be accompanied by a stronger cold front. This clipper will bring widespread rain, some mix/ and snow to the region. Northern areas should start out as snow; a few inches of snow will be possible across northern New York State and northern New England with higher accumulations in the higher elevations. Southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Middle Atlantic and southern New England will likely be dealing with a rain/mix.  Temperatures will warm south to north on Thursday changing snow over to a rain/mix for many northern areas, but snow could hang on for those higher elevations and far northern areas. The colder air will move in and change any rain over to a bit of snow/mix. There could be a few rumples of thunder when the cold front swings through.

Friday will be colder with lingering rain/snow showers, winds becoming breezy. For the weekend, we will have to watch another clipper for Saturday, depending on the exact track this could bring moderate to heavy snow for Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. Some snow could even make it into New York City. South of there this will likely be a rain/mix event. Plenty of time to watch this and see how it trends. The farther north the storm tracks the less snow/mix/rain will fall for those south of the track. Right now, I don’t think this will be a big deal, but we will see!

High pressure moves in for Sunday and Monday, so we should be mostly dry with plenty of sun but temperatures are going to be cold.

Drought

It's been awhile since I posted anything on drought conditions. 

Here is a look at the latest U.S. drought monitor released last Thursday. 

In spite of some minor improvements over the lase few weeks; a large part of the region is still seeing dry to drought conditions. It shows, 1% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 8% in severe drought, 22% in moderate drought, and 36% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 11%, 23%, and 37%.

large parts of the region have seen snow this season,  Parts of New York State and New England have seen average snowfall, while the snowbelts have seen well above average snowfall. It has been a cold winter, so many areas have frozen ground and so any area under deep snowpack who sees melting snow will end up as runoff.

I’ve posted my spring outlook, so check it out!

 

 

The 2025 Spring Outlook for the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic.

 

Meteorological winter is just about over; so, what about spring.

Meteorological spring will begin on March 1^st. Meteorological Spring is based on annual temperature trends and the Gregorian calendar, and it runs through May 31. The Vernal Equinox will be starting three weeks later on the 20th of March, at 5:01 A.M. EST. The equinox simply means that the length of day and night are (almost!) equal.

I’ve posted several posts on the long range in the blog. So, this will be fairly short and cover the general teleconnection pattern that looks to prevail. I will also touch on the spring severe season. Spring is a transition season, and as such makes it very hard to make a seasonal forecast. This is why most weather outlooks don't try and tackle it. This outlook won’t go into a lot of monthly detail; it will instead give a very general idea on my thoughts for the March thru May time period.

 

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies:

 

 

Image from Tropical Tidbits.

El Nino Southern Osculation (ENSO)

ENSO, is a climate pattern that describes the fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has a phase called El Nino; another called La Nina. When neither El Nino or La Nina are present it is called ENSO natural.

El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

 La Nina, is characterized by cooler-than-average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Image from the CPC

The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific) remains the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.9°C this week, and the ENSO 3 region currently is around +0.1°C. The ENSO regions 3.4 is around -0.3°C and region 4 is at -0.7°C.

Currently we’re in a very weak La Nina that is quickly transitioning to ENSO neutral. So, we will likely only stay in La Nina territory for just a couple more months, if not sooner than that. Even though La Nina will end, it will take a little while for the atmospheric circulation pattern to adjust, So La Nina like impact could be felt after La Nina is considered over.

The neutral conditions look to continue through most of the summer, which could lead to another active Atlantic tropical season. By the end of the summer, NOAA is predicting that a swing back to La Nina is quite possible., but the ENSO very well could stay under neutral conditions. In other words, the spring predictability barrier does not give us any useful information about next fall and winter at this time.

Other teleconnections:

 

Arctic Osculation (AO)

 

The AO did briefly dip into negative territory a couple of days ago, but now it is quickly climbing back into a positive AO.

A Positive AO typically has the cold air locked up to our north. When it goes into negative values, we usually see a push of this cold air spreading south across the U.S.

North Atlantic Osculation (NAO)

 

The NAO is currently positive and looks to remain positive for the foreseeable future

A positive NAO helps Strengthen the Jet Stream over the Atlantic. This helps speed up storm systems moving across the US into the Atlantic. It also helps reduce blocking.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)

The EPO Is currently positive, but it looks to turn negative during the first week of March, this supports the general idea of ridging into Alaska. This would allow for a better chance for a cross-polar flow into the central and eastern US.  This would indicate the first part of March will be colder than average.

Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)

The PNA has been negative a lot this winter. But the PNA did pop positive and it is currently positive, but, by mid-March the PNA goes negative.

 With a negative pattern in place, generally we see troughing in the West and ridging over the east. So, this is a warm signal.

North Pacific Osculation (NPO)

We’re in a positive NPO This will help support cold air being pushed into the Plains. The cold air dropping south will collide with the warm moist air pushing north out of the Gulf of America.  March and April could be quite busy in the Southern Plains in terms of severe weather.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

 

The MJO has left phase 8 and now is in the center (Null). When it was in Phase 8 is a generally colder phase for this point in the year. It looks to spend a short time in the Null, before emerging into phase 1. It looks to stay in phase 1 for 7 to 10 days; then it will once again collapse back into the Null area.  Phase 1 is a cold phase in late February into March. When the MJO is in the Null, it exerts very little influence on the pattern; so overall control is back in the hands of other teleconnections.  

 

Severe weather this Spring:

 

The transition from weak La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions will be a big driver this season.

La Nina tends to see widescale severe weather events, including tornado outbreaks. Historically, the neutral phase produces less widespread outbreaks, but the tornadoes seem to have a better chance of being stronger on average. So localized outbreaks could be a big problem. 

The late season chill in the Northeast and the cold Great Lakes will likely limit severe weather in the Northeast this Spring. But when we do warm up during May and especially during June and July, we will see the severe risk in the Northeast become quite active.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 3-month spring temperature and precipitation outlook. 

 

Final thoughts:

 

Climatology is still on our side as far as big snowstorms; but time is starting to run out.  March can see wild swings in the pattern. We have seen very strong nor’easters during March, the super storm of 1993 is one example

The negative EPO sets up cold air moving through Canada and into the US. Leading to the idea that the first two weeks of March very well could see colder than average temperatures. It is unclear how long the EPO will remain negative. But the first 10-14 days of the month should be under its influence.  When the EPO goes positive, we will likely see  a return to at least seasonable temperatures. Across a large part of the CONUS by weeks 3 and 4 of March.

We also can’t forget the Polar Vortex. I’ve been talking a lot about the PV this winter. It has been very variable. Having split or stretched 13 times since October. As I’ve posted in other post on the Blog, we look to see at least one more event where the PV stretches or maybe even splits. This would signal a good chance for another arctic blast to invade the central and eastern US.

Another factor for at least the first half of March to be cold, is with the negative PNA being delayed in some of the ensembles, that could end up extending the cold air a little farther into March and at least part of April.

The pattern during the first half of March is looking interesting. The timeframe of march 4-10 has a shot at having a major storm impacting the East Coast. We look to have plenty of cold air in place. We should have a trough over the Eastern U.S, allowing for cold air to set over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. How far south that cold air will be is going to be a major factor in where a storm develops. But a storm is likely to form along that Baroclinic Zone…a divide between that very cold and very warm air.   Storms can strengthen along a baroclinic zone. How this storm tracks will depend on the orientation of the trough. If the setup supports it, this possible storm could come up the Coast and become a big nor’easter. On the other hand, this could end up ejecting out to sea.

With the likelihood of several cold air invasions with a general northwest flow. The pattern is going to be ripe for Clippers to impact our region. These will generally be light snow events but some could over produce to moderate to locally heavy snow storms. Lake Ontario still has a lot of open water. So moderate to heavy lake effect events are still possible as we move through March; those who live in the lake snowbelts have already seen an epic winter with well above average snowfall. So, the idea of more lake effect snowstorms possible, it’s not really good news for many of them.

The CPC shows the western parts of the region near the Great Lakes being slightly above average during March thru May, with the rest of the region being moderately above average.  Given how the winterlike temperatures look to linger over the Northeast and Middle-Atlantic into at least the first half of Spring. The CPC could be overly optimistic when it comes to our general overall temperatures.  

The CPC shows a large part of New York State and central and western Pennsylvania seeing above average precipitation. With the rest of the region having equal chances for above or below average precipitation.   Given the pattern I’ve discussed, the CPC precipitation Outlook, looks to be generally in the ballpark in my opinion.  

So given the high likelihood of a back-and-forth tug of war between the warm air trying to get into the region and the colder air trying to hang on. It will likely be a slow climb to true spring like conditions over the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic.  There is a lot of ice over interior bodies of water, rivers and streams. So, Ice jams could be a major issue during March and April.  Spring time flooding will also be a big concern, especially for the areas southeast and east of Lake Ontario who have an extremely deep snowpack. Generally, these areas have 5 to 10 feet sitting on the ground, with the likelihood of more snow events over the next few weeks, this could be a historic spring flood season.   

Well, that’s about it. I hope you found this informative. Feel free to ask questions and please share this outlook on your social media pages. I don’t know how much longer my weather page will be available on Facebook. So, all y’all passing on the location of the blog site will be a huge help.

Thank you.