07/08/2025

 The current surface chart and radar Show location of the stall frontal boundary with not a lot of rain going on right now. Behind the front temperatures are cooler with less humidity; But out ahead of the front It is still hot and humid.

The stationary frontal boundary is going to slowly crawl south and east today. We will see a line of showers and thunderstorms develop. Join the afternoon We will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms move into the hot and humid tropical air mass. With all the moisture in the air any of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, these storms will be moving extremely slowly, So the risk for flash flooding is there. Some of the storms this afternoon and evening will be strong too severe with the biggest danger being strong damaging straight line winds, hail and frequent lightning.. The tornado risk is very low but it is never zero. The storm prediction center (SPC) has a Slight Risk for severe weather over New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania back down into Delaware and Maryland, with a Marginal Risk over southeast New York State and southern New England.

This is going to make for a rough commune for places like the I-95 corridor. The satellite shows the clear skies over Southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware All the Sun is going to make the atmosphere very unstable. All the sunshine is going lead to explosive development for thunderstorms. The best time for the severe thunderstorms will be around 2PM into 9 or 10PM. As the thunderstorms approach the coast they should start to weaken.

As I said yesterday The front is going to stall out again early Wednesday morning over Southern New England back down into Virginia. Then it will slowly slide south of the Mason Dixon.line. Here's a look at the SPC convective outlooks for day 2 and day 3

For Wednesday Those near the boundary will have a chance for scattered thunderstorms and rain showers Some of these could be strong to severe You are away from the front of boundary The less your chances of seeing any rain or storms. Most of New York State and New England will only have a chance for a few isolated rain showers. Like I said yesterday, the front is going to be meandering around a bit over the next several days. Thursday we will see a disturbance move along the frontal boundary, increasing the risk for rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Friday into Sunday will feature the chances for rain showers and thunderstorms especially for those closest to the frontal boundary. Over the weekend we can expect some heat and humidity to move back into the region. Sunday into Monday a cold front will move through bringing the risk for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. The weather pattern looks to remain pretty much the same as we head through next week. 

07/07/2025

 All our thoughts are with the families devastated by the terrible flooding that occurred in Texas.

Tropical storm Chantal formed on Saturday. Before she made her South Carolina landfall early Sunday morning strong wind shear disrupted the circulation and weakened her. The national hurricane center issued their last advisory on Chantal last night. She is now a remnant low. 

Those around the Darmarvia Peninsula Well see occasional wind gust over 40 mph at times. As I said last Thursday she is going to bring heavy rain to the Mid Atlantic , Long Island and into parts of southern New England on her way out to sea, As she steers north and east due to the position of the  northern jet stream and strengthening Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Both of these features are going to play a big role in our weather pattern over the next couple of weeks.

The precipitable water chart Show valleys around 2 inches. So expect some tropical downpours. Possibly leading to some flooding.

This week.

Yesterday we became quite hot and humid as the ridge built into the region. Today we're still going to be under that ridge making for another hot and humid day. The surface chart Shows a cold front dropping in out of Canada and the Great Lakes.

As the cold front slowly drops in we will see showers and thunderstorms develop around mid day into the evening. with the line, some of these could be strong to severe; this will be especially true over northern New England, parts of northern and western New York State back down into western Pennsylvania. Isolated storms could be capable of damaging winds some hail and heavy downpours. The slow moving nature of the storms could lead to some localized flooding issues. The best time for severe storms will be 2PM until around 9PM. 

As the front continues to crawl south and east across the region,Monday night into Tuesday. The rain and thunderstorms will be advance with it. Here is a look at the storm prediction centers convective day 2 outlook. We can see the risk for severe weather is over southern new England back down through southeastern New York State and to eastern Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic. The main danger Is going to be strong damaging straight line winds, Heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

Wednesday we'll see the frontal boundary stall out South of the Mason Dixon Line over Virginia possibly just south of Maryland and Delaware. The boundary is gonna be hanging out generally over the same area for the rest of the week But it will be meandering back and forth a little bit. For Wednesday we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms likely south of the Mason Dixon Line. The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather over this area. But some of the rain and Thunderstorms could make it into parts of southern Pennsylvania. North of there the rest of the region should be dry for Wednesday. 

For Thursday we're going to see a wave of energy move along the frontal boundary. This will bring worn away a widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms To the region on Thursday. The stationary boundary is going to continue to hang out For friday into Sunday Bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms this will be especially true for those closest to the frontal boundary. It doesn't look like there will be any washouts for any day during this time. Sunday we will have a cold front approach and move through This will bring a greater chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region for Sunday and Monday.

Looking ahead a bit

We're going to see the  northern jet stream likely split. This will likely Keep our region fairly active. The strength and position of the Bermuda high Will be important as you go through the summer If it can come more west than it is currently we could get into more heat. But right now it looks like the region is going to see the same kind of weather pattern that we have been seeing. Temperatures swinging between cold and hot and quite a few chances for rain.

 

I hope everyone had a nice and safe independence day weekend. I want to give a personal opinion on the state of the country. I'm not going to get into the political side of everything that's going on. This isn't the place for that.  But I do want to address one thing that I think we all can agree on. Being a citizen of the United States should be an honor and a privilege. No place on Earth has a way of life like we do. Every time I watch the news and many times in public I hear people saying what they can get from the country and they get upset when they don't think they're getting enough. But in my opinion being a citizen is a two-edged sword it's not only what the country can give to you but what you can give back not only to the country but to her citizens as well. We should truly treat each other as if they were our brothers and sisters This is especially true for those in need. We should be able to give freely of our time to help those who need it,  not only money but we should give of ourselves as well. Kindness shouldn't be a commodity that we find too little of.

07/03/2025

 This week has been very active with  quite a bit of severe weather including a couple of tornadoes. Both have been rated as EF0. The first occurred on Monday just after 1PM when a tornado  with max sustained winds of 65 mph touched down near Frankford in Sussex County DE, the second occurred near Amity township in Berks County PA, when a  tornado with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph touched down just before 5PM on Tuesday.

Here is the current surface chart.

We can see the cold front Up in Canada as well as a stationary front sitting near the coast. The stationary front is going to slowly drift south and east. The stationary frontal boundary Separating Higher humidity south and east of the front with less humidity north and west of the front. There is also a little bit of a temperature difference. 

Radar shows rain and some thunderstorms associated with that prefrontal trough up over New York State and New England. This afternoon ahead of the cold front we are going to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Some of these storms will be strong too severe with the main danger being strong damaging winds, Hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. The western half of New York State and western and central Pennsylvania as well as eastern Massachusetts including the Cape is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather The SPC does have a Slight Risk for severe weather over eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and a large part of the New England.

The best timing for  severe weather will be this afternoon and into the evening to around maybe 9 possibly 10PM. Those with the greatest chance of seeing the severe weather will be over eastern New York State and into New England where they have more in the way of forcing and higher lift. It does look like over New York state and Pennsylvania Most of the thunderstorms should be over by 8 or 9PM So any fireworks displays going off tonight should be OK. For western New England the timing will be a little more tricky but most should be ok. For those in eastern New England You might be dodging some showers and thunderstorms. The severe storms over the northern Middle Atlantic And I-95 corridor should be more isolated. 

The cold front is going to sweep the hot temperatures and high humidity out of here for Friday, July 4th. Tomorrow it will be dry with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Saturday high pressure will be overhead plenty of sun and mostly dry conditions, A little fly in the ointment You will have a little disturbance passing to our north That could kick off a few isolated rain showers over far north New York state into northern new England. Our temperatures and humidity are going to start to climb But all in all it shouldn't be too bad.

Sunday we'll see the high pressure start to drift east as we watch an approaching cold front come in from the north and west. Ahead of the cold front a southwest flow is going to bring in heat and higher humidity. As the front gets closer We could see some severe weather up over far northern New York State into northern New England.

The tropics

We have a disorganized area of disturbed weather off the Southeast Coast, Along a frontal boundary north of the Bahamas. There are strong indications that this area is going to try to develop into a warm core coastal tropical or subtropical system for the end of the holiday weekend. The national hurricane center is giving this area a 7 day 60% chance for tropical development into a depression.

This looks to come up over the coast or just off the coast heading towards the Middle Atlantic before it gets shunted out to sea. There is no guarantee that even if a depression forms it will get a name. But if it does come up the coast it could bring some rain along the coast of the Middle Atlantic into possibly Long Island and southern New England on Monday. On Monday we're gonna have that cold front dropping in that will bring scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms into New York State and Pennsylvania. The cold front will continue dropping south and east during the day and night on Monday into Tuesday. We could see some severe weather over western and northern parts of New York State. The front is going to slow down and probably stall by Tuesday over New England back down into the northern Middle Atlantic. This will keep things unsettled For Tuesday. Wednesday we will be sitting under the trough So we can expect isolated showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. For Thursday we will see another cold front approaching the region. As I been saying, the idea of frontal systems coming through the Northeast frequently over the summer, With cold fronts possibly stalling  out keep the temperature see sawing back and forth with numerous chances for rain over the summer. This is what I've been talking about not only in the summer outlook but also in several posts I posted on here.

No post tomorrow or Likely over the weekend. So I want to wish All Y'all a happy Independence day.

07/02/2025

 

We can see in the surface chart The cold front is slowly pushing east, with the bulk of the rain Off the coast. 

Satellite shows skies clearing and dry air Fire air working in west to east behind the front. Where is the hot and humid air Pushing off the coast tonight will be much more comfortable than it was last night. On the continental satellite image We can see the disturbance over the Plains that will be moving through our region tomorrow into Thursday.

Tomorrow we're going to have a shortwave drop in out over the great lakes ahead of an approaching cold front Ahead of the cold front we're going to see warmer temperatures and higher humidity  move in on a southwest flow. Isolated rain shower Western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania Tomorrow morning. This will head  east during the morning into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving towards and into central New York State and central Pennsylvania as we head towards noon. During the afternoon rain and thunderstorms will become scattered. There will be isolated thunderstorms that become strong too severe The main danger is going to be strong damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. Here is a look at the day 2 convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC). It shows much of the region under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The SPC does have a Slight Risk over southwest New York State part of eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England and New Jersey. 

Later in the day on Thursday and to Thursday evening as the storms drop south and east out of New York State and Pennsylvania heading for the I-95 corridor and the northern Middle Atlantic they should be weakening. There still could be  strong possibly severe storms but they shouldn't be nearly as widespread as they were on Monday and Tuesday. 

The front will push the hot and humid weather out here for July 4th. We should have plenty of clear skies along with seasonal temperatures and low humidity; so any fireworks displays should go off without a hitch. Saturday could see temperatures climb slightly but the humidity will still be low and it will stay dry. Sunday high pressure will start to push east, ahead of an approaching disturbance. A southwest flow will bring in warmer temperatures with humidity increasing. As the system gets closer we could see some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms move into New York State and northwest Pennsylvania later in the day. Monday as the front moves into the region we will see scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. The front will be slowing down as it drops south and east. Ahead of the front temperatures will become quite hot and we will see high dew points leading to high heat indexes. Tuesday we'll see the front continuing to ever so slowly Push towards the coast Ahead of the front temperatures will again be very hot and humid, Where is the boundary over the region we are probably stay unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front  will be pulling away off the Coast on Wednesday morning. Parts of southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front pulling away. The rest of the region should stay dry.

07/01/2025

 July starts out wet and stormy.

National weather Service Mount Holly confirmed a tornado touchdowns near Frankford in Sussex County Delaware early afternoon yesterday.

Here is the current surface/radar chart

We can see the warm front is pushing into northern new England with the trailing cold front coming in from the west. In between the two, you can see the prefrontal trough That I talked about yesterday. The thunderstorms over New England are the same storms that went through New York state Pennsylvania and the northern mid Atlantic last night and during the overnight.

Ahead of the cold front we are going to remain very warm and muggy. Today the trough will be the focus as it causes scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will be strong to severe, damaging winds, heavy downpours and possibly hail being the main dangers. With all the moisture in the air frequent vivid lightning will also be possible for some of these storms Risk is low but not zero.

Those with a good chance of seeing strong too severe storms will be across the eastern half of Pennsylvania up through southeastern New York state and into a large part of new England. The greatest chance will be across Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania and into New Jersey; where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather. It will not be a pleasant drive for those on the evening commute on the I-95 corridor

The 1st of 2 cold fronts will come through tomorrow. Most of the region should stay dry But it can't rule out a few isolated rain showers here and there the risk for thunderstorms will be low but I can't completely rule out 1 or 2 of them. The secondary and stronger cold front will come through on Thursday. From this we can expect scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong too severe. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over a large part of the region.

The main risk will be damaging winds frequent lightning some heavy downpours and hail. 

High pressure will be a approaching and setting up overhead for July 4th and Saturday into Sunday. This will provide Comfortable temperatures and low humidity for the 4th And keep us dry for Saturday into Sunday, But humidity will be rising a bit on Saturday And Sunday will see even more Humidity.. Sunday will see the high pressure start to shift east as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front I can't rule a few very isolated showers over  Northwest New York State back into western New York State and northwest Pennsylvania, but the vast majority of y'all should stay dry. The cold front will slowly be dropping out of Canada on Monday bringing scattered showers and some thunderstorms Parts of New York State and northern New England. The cold front will continue to drop south and east across the region on Tuesday again bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ahead of the cold front for Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be very warm and humid. How warm it does get will depend on how much sunshine we see; sunshine will also help determine the extent of any severe weather we see.

06/30/2025

 We made it to the last day of June and July is almost here.

The surface chart shows high pressure sitting over the Northeast.  The system moving into the Ohio valley, with the leading warm front. We also have that stationary front sitting over the northern middle Atlantic region Back in to Pennsylvania; that is going to start to move north today as a warm front. Ahead of the stationary boundary dew points are in the 60s; but south of the boundary we have a tropical air mass in place with dew points in the mid 70s.

The radar shows rain showers ahead of the approaching warm front,  we are gonna see rain breakout as that stationary boundary starts to slowly move north. Today we're going to have a southern flow that is going to pump the heat and humidity over the region. As these approach and through we will see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey this afternoon, . Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with the main danger being strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. With the setup that is in place there will be a risk for localized flooding, due to slow moving thunderstorms. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center convective outlook, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Pennsylvania back down into the Middle Atlantic. Up over New York state and New England There will be quite a bit of sun, then clouds will start building late this afternoon into the evening as all this works its way north. New York State into New England can expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. I can't rule out a few of these being on the strong side, with gusty winds and heavy downpours the main danger. As the warm front advances the risk for a few thunderstorms will extend into and through the overnight. Temperatures won't cool too much tonight keeping it uncomfortable and muggy.

Tomorrow We'll start out hot then a prefrontal trough ahead.of the cold front will swing through, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong, with the risk being damaging winds, frequent lightning, very heavy downpours and maybe some hail. The tornado risk is low but not zero. Those with the greatest risk of seeing severe storms will be the eastern half of New York State into New England and the Middle Atlantic. The best timing for any severe weather will be during the afternoon and through the evening. Here is the convective outlook From the SPC on tomorrow's severe chances, we can see most of the region is under a Marginal Risk .But we do have a Slight Risk over the northern Middle Atlantic, including the I -95 corridor between New York City and Washington DC.

A cold front will swing through Wednesday.  With the front we can expect isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.  A secondary cold front will move through on Thursday Again this will bring the risk for rain showers and some thunderstorms. Behind the front, seasonal temperatures and lower dew points will move in for July 4th into the coming weekend. Sunday we will see an approaching cold frontal boundary. That will be dropped out of the Great Lakes and Canada. Ahead of the cold front there could be a few isolated rain showers  over parts of northern New York State  back down through western NYS and northwest Pennsylvania. The actual cold front will swing through on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Tropical Storm Barry.

 In spite of me saying there was a very very slight chance that a tropical depression would form in the Bay of Campeche, due to moderate to high wind shear over the region. Surprisingly we have tropical storm Barry just off the East Coast of Mexico. Barry follows Andrea which formed west of the Azores June 24th. 

TS Barry Is moving northwest at 6 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006MB with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Sea surface temperatures Car around 84° Fahrenheit, Bought berries limited time over the open water should prevent any other development. Barry looks to make a land call close to Tampico Mexico later today or tonight.  Then he will move inland into Mexico, where he could linger for a couple of days before dissipating. Mexico can expect 3-6 "of rain, with localized amounts of 10-12" possible out of Barry bringing the danger of flooding and mudslides. Moisture from Barry is going to drift north and impact Texas. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain Are likely for places like South Padre island and Galveston. Further inland away from the coast 3⁄4" to 1/2". Houston into the rest of northern Texas could see 1/2" to 1/4". 

There is another area in the northwest Gulf over towards Florida that has to be watched. The National Hurricane center (NHC)  is giving this area a 20% chance of development, over the next couple of days.The next name on the list is Chantel.

06/29/2025

 Post on the end of June into July.

Here is the current 500 mb pattern over North America, courtesy of tropical tidbits. I was talking about this last week. We can see the trough dropping out of Canada, we have that big red developing out west. Here in the Eastern US we can see that monster ridge we had just a few days ago is gone.

As the trough and shortwave continue to drop in; it will have an impact on our weather by midweek. Today most of the region Is experiencing season temperatures with moderate humidity, behind a cold front pushing east. But the Mid Atlantic Including the I-95 corridor Between New York City and Washington DC will be much warmer.

Tomorrow as that trough continues to approach, we're gonna see a ridge start to build here in the Northeast. This will allow our temperatures and humidity levels to increase.

Currently we have sun building from the west and southwest As high pressure Builds  in. So areas under the clouds now in New York State into New England will see some sun this afternoon.

So all in all not a bad day with generally seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures. This will change by tomorrow when we'll see higher temperatures and a noticeable increase in humidity. With the higher dew point the feel like (heat index) temperature will be uncomfortable. Looking  back at the surface chart, the system associated with the shortwave out over the northern and central Plains; will be dropping south and east. Tomorrow we will see isolated to scattered rain showers develop and move across New York State and Pennsylvania; there will be isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of the storms tomorrow will be strong to severe. The main danger will be damaging wind gust, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Some hail is also possible. The tornado risk will be very low but  as is always the case in these kind of situations it is never  zero. The best timing for any severe weather will be 2PM through 9 or 10PM. Those were the greatest risk of seeing the severe weather will be across eastern/southeastern New York State, Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware tomorrow evening  into tomorrow night.

Tuesday as the actual cold front swings through we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. There will be a greater chance for severe storms. Again the main threat will be Strong damaging winds heavy downpours and some hail. 

Wednesday and Thursday we'll see high pressure approach and move in overhead. Thursday a week disturbance will pass through that could set off some rain showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms; but the majority of us should stay dry. July 4 friday is looking to be dry, with cooler temperatures and lower humidity behind the cold front. Right now The high pressure looks to stick around for Saturday into Sunday providing nice weather for the weekend.

06/27/2025

A little bit of everything.

This post will be a bit long as I'm going to cover a lot of topics.

Looking at the weather for the next 5-7 days.

The monster ridge that caused all the heat and humidity continuing to break down. At the same time we're going to see a big ridge develop over the western part of north America. As the eastern ridge continues to relax we are going to see the flow return to more of a typical west to east flow over the northern CONUS. This type of pattern is going to have implications for our region as we move further into the summer.

Here is a look at the surface/radar chart.

We can see high pressure sitting out over Maine into the Gulf of Maine with the back door cold front pushed south and basically stationary to our south and west. The region should see quite a bit of cloudiness with some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally the region is going to be cool.

Later tonight and into Saturday that stationary front is going to start to move north and east. Allowing for temperatures to warm up quite a bit, but humidity won't be super high. Then a weak cold front will drop through bringing widely scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along with it, some of the thunderstorms back over the eastern part of New York state into eastern Pennsylvania and parts of the Northern Middle Atlantic could be on the strong side. The main danger will be strong gusty winds.

The best timing for any severe weather during the afternoon and through the evening. How widespread thunderstorms are will depend on how sunny we get. If we stay  generally mostly cloudy, it will help limit the possibility of severe weather.

I don't want to oversell this, overall Saturday isn't looking too bad. Temperatures will start to warm , The rain looks to be hit and miss and many of us might not see much of  any rain at all. Sunday morning and much of the afternoon is looking like it's going to be dry to mainly dry across northern and western parts of the region. As the cold front continues to slide south and east, there will be a chance for some rain and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and into the evening over eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic.  But not everyone is going to see them. Neither Saturday or Sunday will be a wash out, so don't cancel your plans. Just keep your eyes on sky And be ready for The possibility of a shower or even a thunderstorm, Generally the showers or storms should only last for 15  to 30 minutes.

Then for Monday we're going to have a warm front lifting into the region. Followed by a cold front that will be drifting through the region For later Monday and Tuesday both days are going to feature a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for more in the way of widespread thunderstorms will be on Tuesday and again some of these might be strong to severe. Both Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be generally sunny and dry. For July 4th Friday the region is generally looking to be dry, We have a week to see if that idea holds.

Looking out into the future.

When we start July we're going to see a big bridge developing in the western US At the same time We are going to be seeing a short wave that I've been talking about for at least a week now is going to develop in the central Canadian Prairies.Which is going to drop south and east across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will be dragging a cold front through the Northeast and Middle Atlantic resulting in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be strong to severe.

As we move through July; the southwest monsoon is going to become established. The monsoon is looking to be pretty strong. This is going to take moisture coming out of the Pacific and western Gulf of America and stream it northward. From here with the active zonal pattern this moisture is going to be shunted eastward. At the same time, we're going to have the Bermuda High in the Atlantic. As moisture circulates around it  from the Atlantic and Caribbean.This will likely pull moisture up the eastern seaboard.  With all the moisture streaming in, I do think the  Northeast and to some extent the Middle Atlantic region will see quite a bit of cloudiness along with many chances for rain and likely thunderstorms. The pattern I described when I started this post. Will help support stalled out frontal activity over the eastern CONUS increasing the likelihood Of rainfall over certain parts of the region.  With the northern flow staying active and how we look to see a return to more of a traditional Central ridge. I don't see support for any persistent heat in any one place. All this is signaling  generally overall coolness with some warm times in between cooler outbreaks. So for the region, I think overall temperatures for the month of July are going to end up being slightly below average. It looks like above average precipitation is likely. That doesn't mean you won't see some hot days. It just means that on the average things will be a bit coolish. 

When we look at the climate prediction centers 8-14 day outlooks we can see how they support the idea that I've just described above.

In the precipitation outlook, you can see all that moisture in the southwest due to the monsoon. It also shows the Eastern United States being slightly above average in rainfall.

The tropics

THE National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area near the Bay of Campeche.

Currently they're giving this 10% odds of developing into a tropical depression. The center of circulation is sitting over the Yucatan. General conditions do slightly support some development out of the system. We also have an area the National Hurricane Center is watching in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of Central America.

 This has a strong possibility of becoming Barry. It remains to be seen if the disturbance in the eastern pacific Interfere with any disturbance trying to form over the Bay of Campeche. I really don't support anything developing over the Bay of Campeche. But we will see. We do have that upper level low that is hanging around near Florida. This will have to be watched to see if anything tries to develop around the circulation. But generally there is still a lot of Dust How old would the Atlantic basin some of this is starting to work into the gulf of America. The dust will help keep the  Atlantic basin's main development  region quiet over the next 10-14 days. After that there is a chance that the Madden Julian Oscillation will become more favorable for rising air in the Atlantic basin. Leading to a chance for perhaps some tropical development occurring during the second half of July. But overall July should Rename remain fairly quiet.

A quick look at drought conditions.

We baked under the heat dome Many places saw their highest June temperatures on record. But despite the heat We had enough rain that it kept everything in check. In fact the moderate drought conditions in parts of the Middle Atlantic did slightly improve.

Have a great and safe weekend!

06/26/2025

 Saying goodbye to the heat

Here's the current surface/radar chart.

North of the boundary temperatures are much cooler and more comfortable than they have been. South of the boundary they're still dealing with the heat and the humidity.

The chart shows us scattered rain showers over New York State into New England sitting over Pennsylvania back through New Jersey. 

This afternoon there will be a chance for some isolated non severe thunderstorms up across New York state and new England But for those in Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic there will be a better chance for thunderstorms closer to get frontal boundary. Some of these storms could be strong too severe. The main danger will be Strong damaging winds Frequent lightning and very heavy downpours. Here is a look at the day one convective outlook from the storm prediction center.

Tomorrow that frontal boundary may sag a little further south. Again those north of the boundary will be cooler and less humid with isolated to widely scattered showers and  isolated thunderstorms. The region as a whole should be able to completely say goodbye to the heat and humidity at least temporarily. The greater chance for scattered thunderstorms will be closer to that frontal boundary, closer to the southern parts of our region. Here is a look at the day two convective outlook.

Friday night and on Saturday the frontal boundary will start moving back North as a weak warm front. As the front slides north We will see isolated showers and some storms accompany it. Warmer temperatures and higher levels humidity will move north with it. But it won't be as hot and humid as it has been. 

Sunday we will see a cold front move into and through the region bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday We'll see the front stall out keeping things unsettled over the region. Another cold front will swing through on Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm. Some of the  storms could be strong to severe. Then for Wednesday and Thursday we may finally get a break from the unsettled weather; as high pressure sets up overhead

06/25/2025

 

The ridge is starting to break down. Looking at the 500 mb height anomaly courtesy of tropical tidbits. We can see it's not as extreme as it was.

Here is the current surface/radar chart.

We can see that cold front that is starting to drop out of Canada.As the ridge continues to fall apart and cooler air moves in a loft. It is going to increase our risk for thunderstorms. The cold front is going to slowly drop south. Those north of the front will see temperatures cooling off. South of the front will continue to see the hot temperatures and high humidity. With heat indexes in the upper 90s into the 100s. As the front drops into the hot tropical air mass. We will see rain showers and thunderstorms break out this afternoon into tonight. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. Here is a look at the current convective outlook from the storm prediction center.

We can see there is a marginal risk for severe weather across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The risk will be strong damaging winds, frequent lightning, some hail and with all the moisture in the air heavy downpours can be expected. The front will continue to drop south into the middle Atlantic and I-95 corridor tonight into tomorrow. Here is a look at tomorrow's convective outlook.

With the the possibility of night time severe weather make sure you have a way to be alerted in case severe weather approaches your area. Any severe storm will be capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

Tomorrow night The cold front is going to end up stalling out It will be hanging around Friday Into Saturday. So for Friday and Saturday We can expect rain showers and some thunderstorms. The storm shouldn't be severe. The front will have pushed the high temperatures and humidity out of here. Then on Saturday The stationary front is going to start to move back into the region as a warm front. As the front moves through we will see some widely scattered rain showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Sunday will see a cold front move through the region bringing the chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. We are going to heat back up for next week. But we're not going to have the monster ridge that caused the record breaking heat. We will have to watch a shortwave that's going to drop down out of the Canadian prairies and moving across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. With a cold front that could set off the possibility of severe weather here in the Northeast. For Wednesday we should be dealing with high pressure overhead.

So next week it will feel like summer. But it won't be the super hot weather we've just gone through.