07/03/2025

 This week has been very active with  quite a bit of severe weather including a couple of tornadoes. Both have been rated as EF0. The first occurred on Monday just after 1PM when a tornado  with max sustained winds of 65 mph touched down near Frankford in Sussex County DE, the second occurred near Amity township in Berks County PA, when a  tornado with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph touched down just before 5PM on Tuesday.

Here is the current surface chart.

We can see the cold front Up in Canada as well as a stationary front sitting near the coast. The stationary front is going to slowly drift south and east. The stationary frontal boundary Separating Higher humidity south and east of the front with less humidity north and west of the front. There is also a little bit of a temperature difference. 

Radar shows rain and some thunderstorms associated with that prefrontal trough up over New York State and New England. This afternoon ahead of the cold front we are going to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Some of these storms will be strong too severe with the main danger being strong damaging winds, Hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. The western half of New York State and western and central Pennsylvania as well as eastern Massachusetts including the Cape is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather The SPC does have a Slight Risk for severe weather over eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and a large part of the New England.

The best timing for  severe weather will be this afternoon and into the evening to around maybe 9 possibly 10PM. Those with the greatest chance of seeing the severe weather will be over eastern New York State and into New England where they have more in the way of forcing and higher lift. It does look like over New York state and Pennsylvania Most of the thunderstorms should be over by 8 or 9PM So any fireworks displays going off tonight should be OK. For western New England the timing will be a little more tricky but most should be ok. For those in eastern New England You might be dodging some showers and thunderstorms. The severe storms over the northern Middle Atlantic And I-95 corridor should be more isolated. 

The cold front is going to sweep the hot temperatures and high humidity out of here for Friday, July 4th. Tomorrow it will be dry with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Saturday high pressure will be overhead plenty of sun and mostly dry conditions, A little fly in the ointment You will have a little disturbance passing to our north That could kick off a few isolated rain showers over far north New York state into northern new England. Our temperatures and humidity are going to start to climb But all in all it shouldn't be too bad.

Sunday we'll see the high pressure start to drift east as we watch an approaching cold front come in from the north and west. Ahead of the cold front a southwest flow is going to bring in heat and higher humidity. 

The tropics

We have a disorganized area of disturbed weather off the Southeast Coast, Along a frontal boundary north of the Bahamas. There are strong indications that this area is going to try to develop into a warm core coastal tropical or subtropical system for the end of the holiday weekend. The national hurricane center is giving this area a 7 day 60% chance for tropical development into a depression.

This looks to come up over the coast or just off the coast heading towards the Middle Atlantic before it gets shunted out to sea. There is no guarantee that even if a depression forms it will get a name. But if it does come up the coast it could bring some rain along the coast of the Middle Atlantic into possibly Long Island and southern New England on Monday. On Monday we're gonna have that cold front dropping in that will bring scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms into New York State and Pennsylvania. The cold front will continue dropping south and east during the day and night on Monday into Tuesday. The front is going to slow down and probably stall on Tuesday over New England back down into the northern Middle Atlantic. This will keep things unsettled For Tuesday. Wednesday we will be sitting under the trough So we can expect isolated showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. For Thursday we will see another cold front approaching the region. As I been saying, the idea of frontal systems coming through the Northeast frequently over the summer, With cold fronts possibly stalling Cold fronts possibly stalling out keep the temperature see sawing back and forth with numerous chances for rain over the summer. This is what I've been talking about not only in the summer outlook but also in several posts I posted on here.

No post tomorrow or Likely over the weekend. So I want to wish All Y'all a happy Independence day.