February 28th, 2025

 Welcome to the last day of Meteorological Winter

 

The last system has departed, taking the cold front with it. But we have a secondary cold front dropping thru the region, but this only has a few scattered snow/rain showers with it. Today is chilly, satellite showers sun and clouds over the region.

We have our next clipper quickly approaching. The Clipper will past just to the north Friday night and Saturday.

Initially northern parts of the region will start out as snow. Like the last one, accumulations will be light, but the Saturday Clipper will be a bit stronger. So, snowfall accumulations will be a little higher.

Across New York State north of I-90 a general 1-4 inches of snow will be possible, with 2-5 inches in the higher elevations, the highest elevations could see 6-10 inches of snow. South of I 90, a dusting to an inch is possible the same general thyme for northern New England, for Vermont and New Hampshire a general 1-4 inches of snow is possible, with areas like the Greens and Whites seeing 2-6 inches, with the highest elevations seeing 6-10 inches.  For the sea Coast of Maine and New Hampshire a dusting to around an inch will be possible.  The rest of the region will likely see just rain.

Southwest winds will become gusty, as warmer air moves in, this will change most of the northern snow over to a mix and then Rain. As the system pulls east, the gusty winds will switch to the Northwest. Bringing in colder air, that will turn rain back over to some snow.

Sunday and Monday turn very cold, with lake effect falling downwind of the Great Lakes. Then we will start to warm later Monday, this warm up will last for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest we’ve seen so far. Then for midweek we will see a strong storm form in the Plains. This storm will continue to deepen as it heads for the Great Lakes. North and west of the track will see heavy snow, while this brings a severe weather outbreak to the South. With the storm heading into the Great Lakes, we will be on the warm side of the storm. This looks to be a widespread rainmaker. Rain could be heavy at times. There is a chance for some thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania into Middle Atlantic and southern New England. There is a chance very isolated strong cells.    

With the warm temperatures and rain, expect snow to be melting. Flooding and Ice Jams will likely become an issue at least on the local level.

Does NOAA delete or change past weather data?

 

Chuck Lewis, said Mark Darpino asked me to comment on  NOAA being entangled in a scandal involving NOAA manipulating data from past decades to change how temperatures and precipitation events are viewed currently. So since Mark, is asking, I'm sure others are asking the same thing; So I wanted to post the answer here.

Mark, the answer to your question is yes NOAA is changing past weather data.  NOAA says this is a conspiracy that they are manipulating the historical weather data. NOAA is saying that “The routine, public adjustments to records happen for good reason”.  But, if they are adjusting the record, then it isn’t a conspiracy but instead a fact.

Today weather data is collected through a network of weather stations, satellites and other monitoring tools, but decades ago weather was collected and recorded by hand. NOAA says “many of these records were recording things differently than others, so the raw historical data might not always reflect accurate or consistent conditions”. Could these adjustments be used to support global warming ideas and theories? My answer is maybe.

I think the original data should be safe guarded and remain in the record, with changes to that data added as a foot note. Otherwise, it is hard to judge the historical record when trying to compare data from the distinct past to current trends. This is especially true when it comes to the idea of climate change and how it is truly affecting our weather patterns.  

I want to point out, that I often take a look at state historical records when doing analogue forecasting. So, I would advise anyone who what’s to look at the past data. To remember there are a lot of states and organizations that record climate data. Use this to try and double check NOAA data.  

February 27th, 2025

 

I borrowed Chuck Lewis's map showing the general snowfall so far for the season.

The last several winters have been lack luster and warm. But this winter hasn’t had that issue, there have been abundant cold spells, including some that had a long duration.  The pattern has been active, for those east of Lake Ontario, snow events have been seemingly nonstop with snow falling just about every day.

Hundreds of buildings have collapsed over the last few weeks, due to the amount of Lake Effect snow, southeast and east of Lake Ontario.  Parts of the Tug Hill have seen up around 300 inches (25feet) to 360 inches (30 feet) of snow so far this season, With another 10 to 14 inches through this Saturday. Half of this has fallen during February alone.  Syracuse has seen around 105 inches of snow, with Buffalo and Rochester seeing around 82 and 76 inches.  

Snagged this from Bill Kardas at WKTV.

Across a large part of New England, snowfall is running a bit below average for this point in the season, due to the pattern having the general storm track to the south.  But parts of Vermont have done very well, according to their websites, Stowe has seen 266 inches and Jay Peak is reporting around 350 inches so far this season.

Looking at the weather into next week.

 

 

 

Currently we have low pressure over the Lake Ontario with an attached warm front lifting thorough the region. Ahead of the warm front we have snow, then as temperatures warm it chances over to a bit of mix and then rain, then change back to snow tonight into early tomorrow, for northern areas. Those northern areas in New York State and Vermont look to see a general 1-3 inches of snow, south of these areas will see a dusting to an inch, with the Adirondacks and Greens seeing 2-6 inches.  Snowfall totals will be highest along the foothills and Western Maine, where 4-6 inches is expected. Most communities along the interstate and Northern areas will see 2-4 inches, Northern and Central New Hampshire and Maine will see 2-4 inches with parts of Central New Hampshire into west central Maine seeing 4-8 inches, Coastal Maine, Coastal New Hampshire and northwest Massachusetts a dusting to an inch or two. The system will be pulling away from Maine this evening.   The rest of the region will be dealing with scattered rain showers.

Temperatures will continue to climb today. For most of us temperatures will remain mild tonight, so areas that see snow melting there will be advection fog again to deal with. But northern areas will drop back to near freezing so wet roads and surfaces could see a bit of black ice, so keep that in mind. There could be a few lingering rain/snow showers into early Friday morning.

We will have another little clipper system come through Friday afternoon into Saturday, this one will be similar to the one currently moving through, a few inches of snow for northern areas, with snow changing to a mix and then rain for most northern areas, but areas in the far northern parts of the region and much of Maine could hang on to the cold air long enough for it to say mostly or all snow. Again, southern parts of the region would stay all rain. The Friday into Saturday Clipper will have quite a bit of wind with it.  Behind the clipper much cooler air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday, northwest winds mean there will likely be some lake effect falling downwind of Lake Ontario and maybe even Lake Erie, with scattered rain/snow showers for the rest of us.

The colder temperatures will hang around into Monday, then we will see another warming trend begin later Monday and Tuesday.  Wednesday into Thursday we will be dealing with our next system, it will form in the Plans and become very strong. This is looking to be a major severe/tornado outbreak for the South. For us, this will be approaching from the west with a leading warm front. It looks to pass over the Great Lakes, so for the majority of our area this will be a widespread rain maker. Winds will likely be very gusty as well. The cold front will pass through later Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Rain could be heavy at times. Along with a chance for thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Rain will continue into Thursday, with widespread rain continuing. The storm will be departing during Thursday afternoon, with the cold air coming in behind the system, rain will be changing over to snow, for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England.

 

February 26th, 2025

 

 

We have high pressure overhead, with a northwest breeze bringing slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday, but they are still very mild for this time of year. We have a shortwave trough rotating through the region, with a stationary front to our north. There is an approaching area of low pressure approaching from the west, a leading warm front will move through this evening and tomorrow, ahead of the front we will see rain showers move into western Pennsylvania this afternoon, then this will move north and east today into tomorrow, due to this zonal flow. Northern areas could see things start as a bit of snow and or mix before temperatures warm changing snow over to rain. Accumulations will be light northern New York State and northern New England could see coating to 2 inches with perhaps a bit more in higher elevations. Most of us will see rain out of this with perhaps a quarter of an inch or so of rain.  As the cold front approaches northern areas seeing rain could change back over to some snow.

Behind the cold front cooler more seasonable air will move in for Friday. This cooler air will stick around for Saturday. Later Friday into Saturday our next clipper system will roll through. This one will be stronger than the first two this week, but looks to take a similar track to the one midweek.  Winds will be blustery and could be quite strong, with temperatures cooling off even more for Saturday night into Sunday. The weekend clipper will bring scattered rain showers to Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. Snow in northern areas should still be light, but accumulations could be a little higher, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could end up with upwards of 12 inches. 

Sunday will end up fairly tranquil for most, but lake effect will be falling downwind of the Great Lakes, temperatures will be cold. Monday will see temperatures warm, ahead of our next Clipper on Tuesday.

In the Spring Outlook I talked about the chance for a bigger storm between the 4^th and 10^th of March. Wednesday we will be watching a stronger storm approaching, this will likely bring heavy snow north and west of the track with a mix and rain south and east of the track. The question right now, is where the track will be.

At the moment, high pressure will build into the Plains. Then early next week energy will be coming onto the West Coast, the western trough is going to dig, with warm air ahead of the developing low, the system looks to become quite strong as it approaches the Ozarks.  How the storm tracks will depend on the trough orientation and how strong the storm becomes. This could end up being a big severe event in the south. The system could cut over the Great Lakes, This would bring heavy snow into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, leaving much of our region in the warm sector. So widespread rain would be a issue, along with embedded thunderstorms for eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Or it could come more east closer to the Coast, before cutting north and east over the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. If this happens Western Pennsylvania, New York State and northern into Central New England would end up with a lot of snow. Right now this could go either way.

 

February 24th, 2025

 

The weekend wasn’t too bad, temperatures started to warm up, winds were fairly light with more in the way of sunshine than we’ve see of late. Outside of a few scattered snow showers most of us were dry.

Today will see that warming trend continue, as a warm front lifts through the region. But winds are going to pick up out of the southwest, ahead of a weak system, winds with gusty of 30 to 50 mph will be possible through this evening.  This system will bring a little rain/ mix/ and northern snow to the region. northern areas could see 2-3 inches, especially in the highest elevations.

A 2^nd weak system will move through on Tuesday. This system will have a very weak cool front with it, so temperatures shouldn’t be all that effected. Again, there will be a chance for scattered rain for most of us, with a few mix/snow showers for some of us, this will mainly be in the high elevations. Rain will be very light and snow will have very light accumulations.

Wednesday high pressure will be overhead. But for Wednesday night and Thursday a clipper system will be approaching the Great Lakes. This will be accompanied by a stronger cold front. This clipper will bring widespread rain, some mix/ and snow to the region. Northern areas should start out as snow; a few inches of snow will be possible across northern New York State and northern New England with higher accumulations in the higher elevations. Southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Middle Atlantic and southern New England will likely be dealing with a rain/mix.  Temperatures will warm south to north on Thursday changing snow over to a rain/mix for many northern areas, but snow could hang on for those higher elevations and far northern areas. The colder air will move in and change any rain over to a bit of snow/mix. There could be a few rumples of thunder when the cold front swings through.

Friday will be colder with lingering rain/snow showers, winds becoming breezy. For the weekend, we will have to watch another clipper for Saturday, depending on the exact track this could bring moderate to heavy snow for Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. Some snow could even make it into New York City. South of there this will likely be a rain/mix event. Plenty of time to watch this and see how it trends. The farther north the storm tracks the less snow/mix/rain will fall for those south of the track. Right now, I don’t think this will be a big deal, but we will see!

High pressure moves in for Sunday and Monday, so we should be mostly dry with plenty of sun but temperatures are going to be cold.

Drought

It's been awhile since I posted anything on drought conditions. 

Here is a look at the latest U.S. drought monitor released last Thursday. 

In spite of some minor improvements over the lase few weeks; a large part of the region is still seeing dry to drought conditions. It shows, 1% of the Northeast in extreme drought, 8% in severe drought, 22% in moderate drought, and 36% as abnormally dry compared to 1%, 11%, 23%, and 37%.

large parts of the region have seen snow this season,  Parts of New York State and New England have seen average snowfall, while the snowbelts have seen well above average snowfall. It has been a cold winter, so many areas have frozen ground and so any area under deep snowpack who sees melting snow will end up as runoff.

I’ve posted my spring outlook, so check it out!

 

 

The 2025 Spring Outlook for the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic.

 

Meteorological winter is just about over; so, what about spring.

Meteorological spring will begin on March 1^st. Meteorological Spring is based on annual temperature trends and the Gregorian calendar, and it runs through May 31. The Vernal Equinox will be starting three weeks later on the 20th of March, at 5:01 A.M. EST. The equinox simply means that the length of day and night are (almost!) equal.

I’ve posted several posts on the long range in the blog. So, this will be fairly short and cover the general teleconnection pattern that looks to prevail. I will also touch on the spring severe season. Spring is a transition season, and as such makes it very hard to make a seasonal forecast. This is why most weather outlooks don't try and tackle it. This outlook won’t go into a lot of monthly detail; it will instead give a very general idea on my thoughts for the March thru May time period.

 

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies:

 

 

Image from Tropical Tidbits.

El Nino Southern Osculation (ENSO)

ENSO, is a climate pattern that describes the fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has a phase called El Nino; another called La Nina. When neither El Nino or La Nina are present it is called ENSO natural.

El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

 La Nina, is characterized by cooler-than-average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Image from the CPC

The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific) remains the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.9°C this week, and the ENSO 3 region currently is around +0.1°C. The ENSO regions 3.4 is around -0.3°C and region 4 is at -0.7°C.

Currently we’re in a very weak La Nina that is quickly transitioning to ENSO neutral. So, we will likely only stay in La Nina territory for just a couple more months, if not sooner than that. Even though La Nina will end, it will take a little while for the atmospheric circulation pattern to adjust, So La Nina like impact could be felt after La Nina is considered over.

The neutral conditions look to continue through most of the summer, which could lead to another active Atlantic tropical season. By the end of the summer, NOAA is predicting that a swing back to La Nina is quite possible., but the ENSO very well could stay under neutral conditions. In other words, the spring predictability barrier does not give us any useful information about next fall and winter at this time.

Other teleconnections:

 

Arctic Osculation (AO)

 

The AO did briefly dip into negative territory a couple of days ago, but now it is quickly climbing back into a positive AO.

A Positive AO typically has the cold air locked up to our north. When it goes into negative values, we usually see a push of this cold air spreading south across the U.S.

North Atlantic Osculation (NAO)

 

The NAO is currently positive and looks to remain positive for the foreseeable future

A positive NAO helps Strengthen the Jet Stream over the Atlantic. This helps speed up storm systems moving across the US into the Atlantic. It also helps reduce blocking.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)

The EPO Is currently positive, but it looks to turn negative during the first week of March, this supports the general idea of ridging into Alaska. This would allow for a better chance for a cross-polar flow into the central and eastern US.  This would indicate the first part of March will be colder than average.

Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)

The PNA has been negative a lot this winter. But the PNA did pop positive and it is currently positive, but, by mid-March the PNA goes negative.

 With a negative pattern in place, generally we see troughing in the West and ridging over the east. So, this is a warm signal.

North Pacific Osculation (NPO)

We’re in a positive NPO This will help support cold air being pushed into the Plains. The cold air dropping south will collide with the warm moist air pushing north out of the Gulf of America.  March and April could be quite busy in the Southern Plains in terms of severe weather.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

 

The MJO has left phase 8 and now is in the center (Null). When it was in Phase 8 is a generally colder phase for this point in the year. It looks to spend a short time in the Null, before emerging into phase 1. It looks to stay in phase 1 for 7 to 10 days; then it will once again collapse back into the Null area.  Phase 1 is a cold phase in late February into March. When the MJO is in the Null, it exerts very little influence on the pattern; so overall control is back in the hands of other teleconnections.  

 

Severe weather this Spring:

 

The transition from weak La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions will be a big driver this season.

La Nina tends to see widescale severe weather events, including tornado outbreaks. Historically, the neutral phase produces less widespread outbreaks, but the tornadoes seem to have a better chance of being stronger on average. So localized outbreaks could be a big problem. 

The late season chill in the Northeast and the cold Great Lakes will likely limit severe weather in the Northeast this Spring. But when we do warm up during May and especially during June and July, we will see the severe risk in the Northeast become quite active.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 3-month spring temperature and precipitation outlook. 

 

Final thoughts:

 

Climatology is still on our side as far as big snowstorms; but time is starting to run out.  March can see wild swings in the pattern. We have seen very strong nor’easters during March, the super storm of 1993 is one example

The negative EPO sets up cold air moving through Canada and into the US. Leading to the idea that the first two weeks of March very well could see colder than average temperatures. It is unclear how long the EPO will remain negative. But the first 10-14 days of the month should be under its influence.  When the EPO goes positive, we will likely see  a return to at least seasonable temperatures. Across a large part of the CONUS by weeks 3 and 4 of March.

We also can’t forget the Polar Vortex. I’ve been talking a lot about the PV this winter. It has been very variable. Having split or stretched 13 times since October. As I’ve posted in other post on the Blog, we look to see at least one more event where the PV stretches or maybe even splits. This would signal a good chance for another arctic blast to invade the central and eastern US.

Another factor for at least the first half of March to be cold, is with the negative PNA being delayed in some of the ensembles, that could end up extending the cold air a little farther into March and at least part of April.

The pattern during the first half of March is looking interesting. The timeframe of march 4-10 has a shot at having a major storm impacting the East Coast. We look to have plenty of cold air in place. We should have a trough over the Eastern U.S, allowing for cold air to set over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. How far south that cold air will be is going to be a major factor in where a storm develops. But a storm is likely to form along that Baroclinic Zone…a divide between that very cold and very warm air.   Storms can strengthen along a baroclinic zone. How this storm tracks will depend on the orientation of the trough. If the setup supports it, this possible storm could come up the Coast and become a big nor’easter. On the other hand, this could end up ejecting out to sea.

With the likelihood of several cold air invasions with a general northwest flow. The pattern is going to be ripe for Clippers to impact our region. These will generally be light snow events but some could over produce to moderate to locally heavy snow storms. Lake Ontario still has a lot of open water. So moderate to heavy lake effect events are still possible as we move through March; those who live in the lake snowbelts have already seen an epic winter with well above average snowfall. So, the idea of more lake effect snowstorms possible, it’s not really good news for many of them.

The CPC shows the western parts of the region near the Great Lakes being slightly above average during March thru May, with the rest of the region being moderately above average.  Given how the winterlike temperatures look to linger over the Northeast and Middle-Atlantic into at least the first half of Spring. The CPC could be overly optimistic when it comes to our general overall temperatures.  

The CPC shows a large part of New York State and central and western Pennsylvania seeing above average precipitation. With the rest of the region having equal chances for above or below average precipitation.   Given the pattern I’ve discussed, the CPC precipitation Outlook, looks to be generally in the ballpark in my opinion.  

So given the high likelihood of a back-and-forth tug of war between the warm air trying to get into the region and the colder air trying to hang on. It will likely be a slow climb to true spring like conditions over the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic.  There is a lot of ice over interior bodies of water, rivers and streams. So, Ice jams could be a major issue during March and April.  Spring time flooding will also be a big concern, especially for the areas southeast and east of Lake Ontario who have an extremely deep snowpack. Generally, these areas have 5 to 10 feet sitting on the ground, with the likelihood of more snow events over the next few weeks, this could be a historic spring flood season.   

Well, that’s about it. I hope you found this informative. Feel free to ask questions and please share this outlook on your social media pages. I don’t know how much longer my weather page will be available on Facebook. So, all y’all passing on the location of the blog site will be a huge help.

Thank you.   

 

 

 

February 21st, 2025

 

It’s been an eventful winter, but where is Spring?

We have high pressure building into the region, providing February sunshine. Today is cold but a bit warmer than yesterday. Temperatures back off tonight leading to a cold start tomorrow morning. But then we will see a warming trend, later Saturday into Sunday a disturbance will pass to our north, this will bring light snow showers to northern parts of the region, especially in the higher terrain. and a chance for mix/rain a bit south of that, then a few rain showers over the southern tier of New York State into southern New England the rest of the region should stay dry.

Next week will see a few clipper-like systems roll through. The first will come through later Monday into Tuesday this will bring a rain/mix snow to the region. Wednesday will be an in-between day and should be mostly dry. Then another system will approach and move through on Thursday into Friday, again bringing rain/mix/snow.

 

The pattern is going to start that uphill climb toward real spring. But it will be a slow climb.

The transition from winter to spring can be very energetic and erratic.  Over the last few weeks, I’ve been talking about the overall pattern, and how the polar vortex and various other teleconnections will allow for injections of polar and arctic air into the North American pattern. with the colder overall weather pattern looking to reign over Great Lakes into the eastern United States as we go into mid and maybe late March. The polar vortex has been very active and fickle this winter. As I’ve been saying the PV is currently stretched with one lobe impacting Siberia and a lobe over Canada. This disruption is partly due to a high-pressure anomaly in the stratosphere over Europe heading toward Greenland, we also have a high-pressure ridge over the West Coast into Canada.

The PV is starting to relax and pull back north. So, we will see warmer temperatures over the region this weekend into next week. By Monday and Tuesday, the temperatures over the Northeast and Middle-Atlantic will be above average, as the northwest flow shuts off, and we get into more of a zonal (west to east) flow, allowing for warmer air to work in.  The PV is going to strengthen. Which will help keep that cold air locked up over the North Pole.  But as I’ve been saying the warm pattern isn’t going to hang on for a prolonged time.  As we approach the end of February, high pressure is going to build in over the North Pole; this is going to disrupt the PV once again, allowing for colder air to slip back into the middle latitude. The setup looks to see the PV stretch over Asia and North America. Marking a return of a cold air mass over the Great Lakes, Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  So, the end of February and first week of March is looking to be rather cold. Then we should see a warm up.

We’re going to experience big temperature swings during March. There is still plenty of cold air available in the pattern. So, we can still expect to see some snowfall. In the extended range forecast. The upcoming weather pattern will see a lot of back and forth. With the colder air coming from the north, you can see snowfall across the Great Lakes, and across the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Here is a look at the GFS’s thoughts on the next 16 days. It’s hard to have any real accuracy with snowfall, but we can see there will be some snow.

 

 

 

February 20th, 2025

 

Today is cold and these northwest winds will make it feel even colder. The surface chart shows the East Coast storm pushing out into the Atlantic, with a trough attached to the upper level-low (2nd half of the system) moving across the region, with the trough will be the chance for a few snow showers, some of these could become moderately heavy for a short time, Southern areas could see a dusting to maybe an inch in some spots. With northern areas especially in the higher elevations (Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites) seeing more in the way of a widespread 1-2 inches.

Tonight, will see the risk for these isolated snow showers to continue along with cold temperatures, but not as cold as last night. Tomorrow will see high pressure overhead, allowing for more sun and temperatures starting to warm; most of Saturday is looking to be dry for most of us, but a weak disturbance will bring the chance for some light snow over northern areas and isolated rain showers for southern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday will see the warming trend continue.

For next week, warming temperatures continue, Then Monday night and Tuesday a disturbance with a weak cold front will move through, with the warm temperatures, Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, New Jersey, much of New York State, and Southern New England will see rain showers, far northern New York State, and northern New England will likely see some snow/mix showers, while far northern New Hampshire and northern and Central Maine see some accumulating snow, with a mix closer to the Coast.  For Thursday into Friday, another disturbance with a stronger cold front will approach and move through, bringing rain/mix/and snow.

As we get closer to Spring we will continue to see the warm and cold are battle it out. I made a little writeup on this last night, if you haven't read it, check it out.  

 

 

 

 

 

Had enough Cold, Cold, Cold!

 

So far this has been a very active winter; not many major storms, but many small to moderate events. Our region has been extremely active over the last 7 to 10 days. Looking forward, the pattern looks to become less active, but there are still going to be disturbance to track, some of these will likely impact at least parts of Northeast and or the Middle-Atlantic.  

It's been a cold February; but overall, the entire winter has been the coldest we’ve seen since the winter of 2014-2015.   

 

The reason for all the cold has been partly to do with the Polar Vortex while being overall strong, it has had several instances Where it stretched or even split. In fact, the Polar Vortex has stretched 10 this winter. Currently the PC stretched over Canada into the Northern U.S. The phases of other teleconnections like the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation have also played a role in the cold. Currently we have strong high pressure over Greenland this is allowing for warm weather there. This area of high pressure is helping intensify and push all of this cold air into the U.S.

The core of the cold is going to relax as we head over the weekend into next week. But we look to see a trough build into the East, which will allow cold air to make a return for the end of February.

As we move into March, I still expect to see the PV stretch at least a few times. So, I still expect to see outbreaks of polar and arctic air masses make their way into the Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast.  The Western ridge looks to build into the Gulf of Alaska, this should lead to storms sliding down the ridge into the Eastern half of the U.S. So, the pattern could become active again during the first couple weeks of March. With temperatures in the eastern U.S. staying seasonal to below average. I expect more rain/mix/snow events, as the cold and warm air masses duke it out. Depending on the storm track and setup, there is still the chance for a major East Coast snow storm over the next few weeks.

The CPC 8–14-day temperature outlook, reflects this idea. We’re in the end of February so the sun angle is getting higher, March will see that angle increase. But a increase in the sun angle can lead to melting, it can also be a storm lovers friend, by changing the dynamics and lead to stronger storms.

So winter isn't over by a long shot!

 

 

 

February 19th, 2025

 

My husbands and my daily ritual of clearing roofs and moving snow continues.

High pressure is moving in, along with a couple of troughs. Leaving us with a mix of clouds and sun. The temperatures are very cold with dry air and the winds have subsided quite a bit. The storm is well to our south heading for the Atlantic.

As I’ve been saying the last couple of days or so, this storm won’t be a major storm for our region. The heaviest snow will be south of Washington, D.C, southern Delaware, and far southern New Jersey, these areas could see several inches of snow along with sleet and freezing rain. With the air so dry, there will likely be a sharp cut off, north of these areas where The DC metro, southern New Jersey into Southeast Massachusetts.

South of DC, southern Delaware, and far southern New Jersey could see 1-4 inches of snow.  The DC Metro, northern Delaware, and Central New Jersey could see a dusting to near an inch. A coating is possible over Philadelphia, New York City, Long Island, coastal Connecticut and part of eastern Massachusetts, while the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard have a chance for 1-3 inches, with the outer Cape and Nantucket having a chance for 3-6 inches of snow by tomorrow morning.  

The southern component exits tomorrow, then the northern component will swing through on later Thursday into Friday bringing light snow showers to parts of the region. much of the day on Friday will remain cold and breezy, then we will see temperatures warm up a bit for later Friday into the weekend.  We will see some clipper systems move through over the weekend. A few of snow showers are possible on Saturday, especially over northern New York State and northern New England. Saturday will start off chilly, but they will be warming to near seasonal for later Saturday.  For Sunday a moisture starved cold front will move through, meaning New York State and Northern into Central New England will have a slightly better chance for snow showers. Winds will also be increasing on Sunday.  The northern snow showers extend into Monday for northern parts of the region, with rain showers across southern New York State and Southern New England. The warming trend will continue for Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday will once again see a few troughs move through causing a chance for a few snow/rain showers. Then temperatures cool back off as a few disturbances come through during the rest of the week.   

 

 

February 18th, 2025

 

The week ahead.

Those South East of  Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill picked up another two to three feet yesterday and overnight. 

The surface chart is showing low pressure well to our south, with a few shortwave troughs moving across the region.

 

 

 

Winds are still out of the Northwest. Away from Lake Ontario, most of the region is dry with only a few hit and miss flurries here and there, with some of us seeing partly cloudy skies and some seeing more in the way of sunshine. The winds aren’t as windy as they were yesterday, but they are still gusty. Temperatures are warmer than yesterday, but they are still below average across the region.

Tonight, the lake effect will continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario; our temperatures are going to be very cold. Tomorrow will see the lake effect winddown. With the rest of the region staying dry.  Then we will be watching a storm approaching to the south and west.

The later Wednesday into Thursday storm is going to be too far south, to bring the Middle-Atlantic and Northeast a major snowstorm. We needed to have a phase between the northern and southern aspects of the storm, due to several little factors, the phase didn’t happen. I’ve drawn these factors on the GFS 500mb chart.  

Thursday, far southern New Jersey, Southern Delaware and southern Maryland, likely south of DC should see some light snow, one to two inches, with maybe a few seeing as much as three inches. DC metro could see a few snow showers. The eastern tip of Long Island could see a few snow showers as well. The Cape could see some light snow, but the Offshore Islands will have the best chance of seeing one to two maybe three inches. For the rest of the region this will be a swing and a miss.

Friday high pressure will build in, behind the storm, we will have northwest winds, with lake effect snow developing downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Temperatures are going to still be cold.  

Saturday we will start to see a warming trend, along with generally calm conditions.  This warming trend continues into Sunday, most of the region should stay dry. On Monday a weak disturbance will pass over southeast Canada and the northern Northeast. This will end the warming trend, and temperatures will fall back to seasonal levels. This disturbance could bring snow showers across northern New York State and Northern New England. Tuesday another area of weak low pressure will approach, this one looks to track slightly south of the first one, so this could bring some snow from the northern tier of Pennsylvania, across New York State, and New England.