We have high pressure overhead, with a northwest breeze bringing slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday, but they are still very mild for this time of year. We have a shortwave trough rotating through the region, with a stationary front to our north. There is an approaching area of low pressure approaching from the west, a leading warm front will move through this evening and tomorrow, ahead of the front we will see rain showers move into western Pennsylvania this afternoon, then this will move north and east today into tomorrow, due to this zonal flow. Northern areas could see things start as a bit of snow and or mix before temperatures warm changing snow over to rain. Accumulations will be light northern New York State and northern New England could see coating to 2 inches with perhaps a bit more in higher elevations. Most of us will see rain out of this with perhaps a quarter of an inch or so of rain. As the cold front approaches northern areas seeing rain could change back over to some snow.
Behind the cold front cooler more seasonable air will move in for Friday. This cooler air will stick around for Saturday. Later Friday into Saturday our next clipper system will roll through. This one will be stronger than the first two this week, but looks to take a similar track to the one midweek. Winds will be blustery and could be quite strong, with temperatures cooling off even more for Saturday night into Sunday. The weekend clipper will bring scattered rain showers to Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. Snow in northern areas should still be light, but accumulations could be a little higher, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites could end up with upwards of 12 inches.
Sunday will
end up fairly tranquil for most, but lake effect will be falling downwind of
the Great Lakes, temperatures will be cold. Monday will see temperatures warm,
ahead of our next Clipper on Tuesday.
In the
Spring Outlook I talked about the chance for a bigger storm between the 4th
and 10th of March. Wednesday we will be watching a stronger storm
approaching, this will likely bring heavy snow north and west of the track with
a mix and rain south and east of the track. The question right now, is where
the track will be.
At the moment, high pressure will build into the Plains. Then early next week energy will be coming onto the West Coast, the western trough is going to dig, with warm air ahead of the developing low, the system looks to become quite strong as it approaches the Ozarks. How the storm tracks will depend on the trough orientation and how strong the storm becomes. This could end up being a big severe event in the south. The system could cut over the Great Lakes, This would bring heavy snow into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, leaving much of our region in the warm sector. So widespread rain would be a issue, along with embedded thunderstorms for eastern Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. Or it could come more east closer to the Coast, before cutting north and east over the Middle Atlantic into southern New England. If this happens Western Pennsylvania, New York State and northern into Central New England would end up with a lot of snow. Right now this could go either way.
Thank you
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