08/31/2025

 If you like fall weather you must be very happy!

Welcome to last day of meteorological summer!

The surface chart and radar Show high pressure is overhead with the entire region dry.

This high pressure is going to stay in control for the next several days providing fall like temperatures and mostly dry conditions. 

 

Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow and they will gradually increase As we move through the coming week. Labor day Monday Which is also the first day of meteorological fall should be dry. Tuesday could feature a few isolated showers; but most shouldn't see them. Wednesday we will see a cold front approaching from the north and west out ahead of this a stronger southwest flow will start to warm us up for the second half of the week. There is a chance for some rain showers Wednesday night over far western parts of the region But a much better chance of rain will occur on Thursday, as a slow moving cold front moves across the region. Western parts of the region will see rain and thunderstorms move in late morning into the afternoon. This line of rain showers and thunderstorms will move into central parts of the region Thursday late afternoon/evening. The front with the rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will make it into New England for Thursday night into Friday. Friday will feature scattered rain showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms over the region. Also for Friday and over the upcoming weekend temperatures will be a bit coolish, for this time of year. On Saturday as the area of low pressure and cold front push east, there will be a chance of  scattered isolated rain showers. High pressure will build in for Sunday providing what looks to be a dry day.

08/29/2025

 Happy Friday!

Looking at the 500 mb pattern courtesy of tropical tidbits. We have troughing up near the Aleutians  with a strong ridge over the Western US and troughing here in the East. This general pattern is going to be sticking with us for quite some time. So we're going to continue to stay cool as this type of setup favors cold fronts dropping south and east into the region.

The surface chart and radar Show the cold front moving over New York State and Pennsylvania With rain showers and thunderstorms some of which are severe out ahead of the cold front over New England.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Behind the cold front we have a polar air mass that is going to drop in over the region for the next several days, As high pressure will be in control. With the upper level low up over southeast Canada, temperatures are going to be below average for this time of year. But the air will be dry so humidity will be low. We will have  a few short waves moving through over the next few days; but they won't have a lot of moisture to work with. So most of the region should be dry. But I can't rule out a few rogue showers here and there.

Tuesday will see the high pressure start to drift east with increasing clouds moving in from the west. As the high pressure departs Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see a southwest flow set up over the region; allowing temperatures and humidity to start to climb. Wednesday night and Thursday we will have an area of low pressure to our south and a strong cold front approaching from the west. Both of these will bring rain showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday into Friday. How much remains to be seen.

Image credit tropical tidbits.

The low pressure over the Southeast and that strong cold front dropping in from the north and west. Depending on the timing of this interaction, we could see some wet weather for Thursday Friday into Saturday next week. But the low near the Southeast very well could be pushed out to sea ahead of the approaching cold front. so this lowers the odds of any kind of real coastal storm developing. It will all come down to timing and trough axis orientation; we'll just have to watch and see how this trends.

Tropics

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We had Tropical storm Fernand That formed in the southwest Atlantic on Saturday, I didn't post on it to any land areas. Fernand is post tropical now. 

Image credit Atlantic tropical headquarters.

The Atlantic currently is quiet But we do have a tropical wave that will be emerging off the West Coast of Africa that will have to be watched. The national hurricane center currently has the  7 day development odds at 30%. The odds of this developing into Gabrielle down the road are fairly decent. The wave looks to move into the eastern Atlantic By Sunday. Then it will be near and over the Cabo Verde islands Monday into Tuesday. Conditions in the Atlantic are conducive for this wave continuing to develop. By the time It approaches a central Atlantic It very well could be a tropical depression or storm Wednesday or Thursday. How far west this can come will depend on the strength and location of high pressure to its north in the Atlantic.

Have a great weekend

08/28/2025

 The cool but great weather continues.

Looking at the surface chart and radar.

We can see high pressure is sitting over the region. With rain approaching out of Canada ahead of that cold front.  Satellite is showing a lot of clouds along cold front with a mix of clouds and sun elsewhere ,with some lifting up over the great lakes into Canada.

Today is going to continue to be seasonally cool, as the high pressure pushes off-shore A southwest flow will mean temperatures and humidity will climb a little bit ahead of the weakening front with rain moving into western New York State and northwest Pennsylvania mid to late afternoon. As all this continues to drop south and east  scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms will move into central Northern New York State and across western Pennsylvania by this evening. While severe weather isn't expected some of the thunderstorms could contain breezy winds and some heavy rain.  The rain and isolated thunderstorms will move into northern new England and central Pennsylvania during tonight. And then eastern New York State Late tonight. The isolated rain showers and a few thunderstorms Will move through the rest of New England Into the northern Middle Atlantic tomorrow. 

Tomorrow we'll see the scattered rain showers continue across western parts of the region during the morning With clearing developing during the afternoon. These conditions will continue west to east as the cold front continues pushing away, Any rain showers Left over New England down into the Middle Atlantic Likely be isolated and spotty. 

Behind this cold front High pressure will build in overhead for Saturday Sunday Monday. Outside the chance for some wildly scattered rain showers Saturday morning the majority of the holiday weekend should be mainly dry with only a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers this will be especially true over Northern new England. The entire weekend will be Seasonally cool. Troughing will be around for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will continue to be mostly dry with a chance for a few showers here and there. The setup means that coastal low I talked about yesterday will likely be to our south and east missing the region. We'll see how things trend. Thursday another cold front from will be approaching from the west. Bringing back a chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms for Thursday into Friday.

I haven't been posting on the drought conditions across the region for a while This was due to a general lack of interest. But yesterday I was asked about the drought conditions. So I thought I would post them today.

The lack of rain over the last several weeks Has led to a large part of the region seeing abnormally dry to drought conditions. The US drought monitor That was released today, Shows 2% of our region in severe drought, 18% in moderate drought and 38% of the region experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

08/27/2025

 A very quick look at the next several days.

Happy Wednesday, here is the current surface chart

The chart shows a couple shortwave troughs moving across the region that will kick off variable clouds and some isolated rain showers along with temperatures staying seasonally cool for today.

Radar shows those scattered showers and lake effect showers over New York State into New England. The surface chart also shows that high pressure that will temporarily build in for tonight and tomorrow, keeping things  mainly dry.  Before that cold front in the Midwest moves through on Friday, ahead of the cold front a southwest flow will allow our temperatures to warm a little bit for  Thursday into Friday and will be bringing a few scattered rain showers and perhaps a few very isolated thunderstorms.

High pressure will build back in overhead for Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Outside of a few scattered rain showers Saturday morning The holiday weekend should be mostly dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower here or there Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be seasonally cool. Late Monday and Tuesday, As the high pressure starts to drift east, we'll see temperatures start to increase on a southwest flow ahead of an approaching low pressure frontal system. For Wednesday and Thursday As the frontal system moves in We look to see an area of low pressure develop off the middle Atlantic coast next Wednesday. This coastal low/early season nor'easter could bring heavy rain for the middle Atlantic into New England, who sees what will depend on the exact location and track of the low. Along with the coastal low we will be dealing with the frontal passage bringing more rain showers and thunderstorms into the region.

08/26/2025

 Here's the current surface chart.

It shows the 1st cold front has moved east and is sitting off the coast. With a second cold front and weak shortwave trough dropping south and east out of Canada. Radar Shows a few isolated showers across the region, due to the dry air mass over the region, these widely isolated showers will continue for today. This will be especially true downwind of the Great Lakes which will see lake effect rain showers streaming off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as the colder air moves over the lakes. Temperatures are cool for this time in August and are generally running below average.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Tonight is going to be very cool with a chance for isolated rain showers. Wednesday will be another quite cool and unsettled day with a chance for isolated rain showers and lake effect rain showers continuing downwind of the Great Lakes as the second weak cold front pushes through the region.The surface chart also shows that high pressure that will be moving in over the region on Thursday, providing plenty of sun and mostly dry conditions. Thursday into Friday we will see temperatures climb slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. That stronger cold front will move through on Friday. The front will bring scattered showers and a chance for some isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will move in overhead for Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Temperatures will remain cool But it should be  dry all three days, But I can't rule out a chance over the the holiday weekend of a rogue shower to popping up. The high pressure will start pushing away on Tuesday reintroducing the chance for some rain showers across the region. These general Fall like cool conditions look to continue for next week.

08/25/2025

 Fall like weather continues.

Looking at the current US surface chart we can see the cold front working its way across the  Northeast into  New England.  Extending all the way down into the Southeast US

 

Image credit tropical tidbit

The North American charts Show high pressure in the north pacific And that low pressure up over Alaska into the arctic Looking at the 500 millibar chart we can see that extensive High pressure ridge in the west and the troughing here in the east behind this cold front.

The atmosphere pattern over North America is showing the influence from this developing la Nina.

This chilly pattern looks to last for at least a couple of weeks. As we have more cool fall like temperatures poised to drop south and east into the region. I talked about this in yesterday's post on the fall and winter prospects. I hope all y 'all had a chance to look it over.

What about this week:

Radar shows scattered rain showers over New York State and New England, as yesterday's heavy weather and thunderstorms that many of us experienced yesterday and last night heads east ahead of the cold front. The satellite image shows the clouds ahead of the cold front with clearing developing behind it.

Today we'll see Seasonal temperatures with a chance for scattered spotty showers. Today will likely be the warmest day of the week. Over the next couple of days we are going to see a series of weak little troughs move through the region. Bringing the risk for isolated rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms every day especially during the afternoon into the evening. By Wednesday temperatures should be slightly below average to below average across the entire region. Lake Effect rain showers will also be an issue downwind of the Great Lakes for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Thursday will have high pressure overhead So it should be mainly a dry day but can't rule out a few spotty showers here and there. Friday a cold front will move across the region bringing scattered thunder scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. Then for the weekend and labor day Monday we look to have high pressure sitting overhead with  mostly clear skies and mostly dry weather with extremely low humidity. The cold front will have reinforced the cold air over the region.

So all in all not that bad of a weather pattern for the week.

I wish you all a great day!

A look at Fall and a little bit more on the upcoming Winter

 The last few days have surely felt like Fall.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

We have troughing up over Alaska into British Columbia. This is going allow colder air to move over into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Then this will slide down that trough axis into the Midwest and East Coast.

Next week is looking to be overall cool. The climate prediction centers 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook does support the idea of general coolness across the region.

For the last month to month and a half our region has been dry. We will see Precipitation 6-14 days

by

We're in the process of a very impressive pattern flip.

The Bermuda high is very close to the Azores. This is going to have a big impact On the steering flow pattern over the western Atlantic into the Gulf of America and over the central and eastern United States. 

Image credit tropical tidbits

This along with a strong pacific jet, is  going to help pump cooler and dryer air into the central United States, Great Lakes and Northeast into northern Middle Atlantic. So over at least the next couple of weeks; we're going to see persistent troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region. This will likely keep overall temperatures below average over the next 7 to 14 days. This idea is reflected in the images I showed above from the Climate Protection Center.

The Euro EPS two meter temperature anomaly chart  shows that by the time we get to the end of August heading into September  just about everywhere east of the Mississippi is seeing cooler temperatures.

Image credit tropical tidbits

As I said above The air is going to be coming out of Canada is going to be dry overall

Image credit tropical tidbit

Over the next week or two we are going to have rain chances. But, I do think the rain showers and thunderstorms are going to be scattered in nature Rather than  widespread over the region. So some areas will do well other areas not so much. The CPC is more generous with precipitation Then either the euro ENS or the American  GFS, who are showing overall below average rainfall.

What can we expect for October and September.

Current global sea surface temperatures (SST)

September through October analogue years.

Outside of those cooler SSTs In the Gulf of Alaska. The rest of the SSTs closely resemble what  our current SSTs look like.

The Climate prediction center 3 month outlook

These years are the closest matches to what were seeing currently in the global SST anomaly

1999, 2006, 2012, 2020, 2022

Image credit NOAA physical sciences laboratory.

The analogues so a completely different picture from the cold outlook.

Based on analogues and current data, temperatures for the western half of New York State most of Pennsylvania Into the northern middle Atlantic looks to be slightly below to below average for September and October. Eastern New York State and most of New England Looks to be around average with Maine looking to be slightly above to above average.

This doesn't mean we won't have not days,  but the heat lasting several days in a row, should be over.

As far as precipitation, I don't think we're going to be as dry as we have been over the last 30-45 days. Most of the region looks to see Slightly above average For the month of September and October.

The 2025-2026 winter:

El Nino Southern Oscillation

The ENSO is still considered neutral, meaning neither El Nino or La Nina is present. But the climate prediction center has officially issued a La Nina watch.

As I've been saying in these winter updates over the last few months. The ENSO does look to be trending towards a weak la Nina. If this does occur It could help bring in a cool to colder and snowier winter in the Midwest into the Northeast.

Current snow pack and sea ice extent.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, Compared to this time last year, the sea ice extent is a little further south and pushed up along the northern coast of Alaska. The ice is still going through it's yearly melt. Based on long-term average, We're still a month or so from the minimum yearly ice extent due to melting. Currently the arctic sea ice is melting at a slower rate than it was at this time last year.

While having more sea ice in the bering strait  means there's a greater chance for cold air intrusions to work away from Siberia Into North America. But, it also  can cause the polar Jet to become stronger. Thereby having a greater chance to lock up the cold air around and closer to the North Pole. So  it's a  two edged sword.

We also have those well above average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Pacific.

Those very warm SSTs will interact with a colder air to the north, Will help create a strong pacific jet helping to create a strong pacific jet that will direct systems into the northwest and Canada. This could also help lock up some of that cold air to our north.t

But based on the fact that it's looking like we're heading for a weak La Nina And some of the other data I went over in my previous winter outlook discussions.

Based on the current data on hand at this time The upcoming winter here in the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic Is looking to have overall temperatures to be slightly below average to below average. As far as snowfall that too is looking to be generally  slightly above average to above average. As we get closer we will see if this idea changes as more data becomes available.