08/03/2025

Why do I use dates for the titles of these posts?

I do it to make it easier for you all to find individual post and it also saves me the lot of work from trying to think of new unique titles for headings.

A bit on the week ahead

The weekend has been great Weather wise. But, we've been dealing with that  wildfire smoke from central Canada. The wildfire smoke is going to still be an issue as we move into the week ahead.

We have strong high pressure centered near Quebec.  This area high pressure is going to bring about tranquil conditions up through midweek Temperatures will be warming up a bit but humidity will remain low for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Starting Wednesday, the high pressure will drift east introducing a southern flow that will allow humidity to start to creep up.  There will be a chance starting Wednesday For a few rain showers or isolated thunderstorms over New York State and New England during the afternoon, The showers will be very hit in this And many may not even see them.  South of there for Pennsylvania and especially the northern Middle Atlantic the chances for rain are greater as you will be closer to a frontal boundary that will set up at that time. What none of the days for the second half of the week will be a watch out. Thursday and Friday we'll see the temperatures getting warmer becoming hot with humidity increasing once again. The upcoming weekend is looking to be dry at this time.

A quick look at tropical Atlantic

When we look at the National Hurricane Centers 7 day tropical outlook we see a lot of color over the Atlantic basin.

Looking back at that strong high pressure in southeastern Canada. Which is sometimes referred to in meteorology as a ridge over troubled waters. It indicates that there is a setup developing where it can become favorable for tropical development. As pressures lower South of the high pressure.We often have to watch south of this area because weaknesses will develop that can be exploited by tropical waves to develop. Basically if you build it they will come.

We do have a few tropical waves moving across the Atlantic basin And conditions are becoming more conducive for tropical development over the basin. Sea surface temperatures are very warm. SSTs in the western Atlantic and central Atlantic Are averaging 85°F In the Gulf of America SST s are even warmer  averaging 88°F. In the Caribbean SSTs are running 84-86°F. And we do have dust in the western Atlantic heading into the Caribbean. But The eastern Atlantic into the central Atlantic has  dust lessening and it should become much less  as we move through August. As I indicated in my last tropical post I expected the Atlantic basin to become more active as we approach mid August. This does look like what is occurring.

Image credits Tropical Tidbits

The NHC is watching 3 areas for possible development

Disturbance 1

This area has the red X. The national hurricane center is giving it a 70% chance of development.  The area is being designated invest 95L. As I indicated in my last tropical post I expected the Atlantic to become active as we approach mid month and that it looks like exactly what is going to occur. 

The disturbance east of North Carolina and north and west of  Bermuda. With the warm SSTs this has a good likelihood of becoming at least a tropical depression. The next name on the Atlantic name list is Dexter.

Disturbance 2

The NHC is giving this area 40% chance of development.

We do have a tropical wave approaching the middle Atlantic That has a strong likelihood that it could become at least a tropical storm. If the high pressure north of it in the Atlantic gives way a little This should start to turn north and hopefully stay in the open Atlantic as it develops maybe into a hurricane.

The area behind this, is the tropical wave that is coming off the Atlantic the west coast of Africa This one may try to scoot under the disturbance in the middle Atlantic and head more for the Caribbean. I feel that this tropical wave will be the one to watch as we move into and through middle August.

Going forward I think The central Atlantic is going to become active and we could see several tropical cyclones try to develop.

Disturbance 3

The NHC is giving this a 20% chance for tropical development. We will have to watch and see if anything can develop here over the coming weekend.