08/19/2025

 Those who like cool weather should be very happy!

The surface chart shows high pressure to our north and the stalled frontal boundary to our south and east.

Today it is coolish with very low humidity giving a real fall like feel  to the air. Radar shows isolated showers over the region, with widespread rain showers in Canada and over the Great Lakes. All that rain is associated with a system approaching the Great Lakes with an attached warm front and a strong cold front.

As the approaching system gets closer, western New York State into northwest Pennsylvania will have a better  chance for isolated showers later this afternoon. Western New York State and western Pennsylvania We'll see the rain showers become more widespread and scattered With isolated thunderstorms this evening into tonight. The scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will move south and east across the rest of New York State  and Pennsylvania later tonight into Wednesday morning. The rain will be working Western New England during the overnight and then into eastern New England and Middle Atlantic tomorrow morning.

As the colder dryer air associated with the cold front Interact with that warmer moisture air streaming north ahead of Erin. Parts of southern new England back down into the northern middle Atlantic could see heavier rain develop tomorrow.

Erin

Image credit Tomer Burg

Currently  Erin is a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, minimum central pressure of 961mb, tracking  northwest at around 9 mph. 

That cold front approaching from the west Is going to create a barrier that will keep Erin's center well away from the east coast, large swells, high surf and dangerous rip current along the East Coast, hitting the outer banks of the Carolinas. For Thursday and Friday wind gust of 20-35+ mph  will be possible closer to the coast and along the coast of the Middle Atlantic and into southern New England. Nantucket Could see wind gust of around 50 mph. Long Island, The south shore of new England Long island And up through the coast to Maine will likely see waves of 4-8 feet. 

Image credit WeatherBell

Those along the Middle Atlantic Coast will be subject to at least some tropical downpours. It is unclear if her outer rain bands will make it into southern New England, So we just have to see how she tracks. The large swells and surge could create light to moderate coastal flooding and some erosion, especially for those south facing inlets and beaches.

On Friday as Erin is starting to pull away from New England high pressure will be building in. High pressure will be in control for Saturday providing mostly dry Conditions with temperatures and humidity creeping up a little bit. Then for Saturday night and Sunday a cold front will be moving through the region bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday. For Tuesday we will have high pressure approaching. But we will likely still be dealing with a couple of troughs that could cause some isolated showers. The 1st half of next week is looking to stay relatively cool.

In the Atlantic 98L is at a 60% chance for tropical development and newly designated 99L is at a 30% chance of development.