11/13/2025

 Chilly and unsettled

The pattern is going to remain very active. The unsettled and cool conditions we've experienced the last couple of days will be adjusting as temperatures try to moderate a bit and conditions clear up a little overhead.

Surface chart and radar

The surface chart Shows the shortwave troughs continuing to slide across the region. On the radar we can see the scattered rain and snow showers. along with some lake effect snow showers continuing downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. But while the radar image shows widespread activity, it's more bark than bite. Winds will be increasing a bit today becoming 5-15 miles an hour Out of the northwest with gust of 20-30 miles an hour possible at times. Those higher elevation snow showers won't leave much accumulation But those areas downwind of lake Ontario could pick up 1 to maybe 2 inches of snow by later this afternoon

All of this is being caused by a longwave trough up in southeast Canada that is dropping through our region. As this trough continues to move north and east, our conditions here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic are going to slowly improve. These light rain showers and high elevation snow showers will continue through tonight. Any snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations with limited snow amounts, along with light lake effect  snow showers continuing south and east of the Great Lakes with perhaps 1 to 3 inches of additional snow accumulation possible  by tomorrow morning.M

Tomorrow morning very light isolated rain showers and higher elevation snow showers will continue. But as we approach the afternoon and get into the afternoon conditions will become better with filtered sunshine and conditions drying up, We could still be dealing with pesky rain and snow showers but they should be very widely isolated. 

For Saturday high pressure will be moving in overhead providing tranquil conditions. But all of this will be short lived. The infrared satellite image shows all of these features very well.

We can see that deep trough over the Northeast. But we can also see that disturbance over the Northwest US. This is going to be working our way and approach for late Saturday and move through Sunday into Monday. For Saturday evening/night we will see a warm front approach and move into the region. With the warm front we will see  rain showers move through. That could see rainfall rates moderate at times. There could be some sleet ice mix along with some Snow showers over parts of New York State Into northern New England especially in the higher elevations. During the day on Sunday the cold front will move through, bringing additional rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Behind the front We are going to see yet again a series of shortwave troughs move through. These are going to allow winds to increase, starting later Sunday afternoon into Monday, winds could gust as high as 25-35 mph. With these troughs coming through We will see rain showers and high elevation snow showers continue, along with lake effect snow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario redeveloping with accumulations in the typical areas downwind likely. These little short waves will continue moving through on Tuesday keeping things unsettled, Along with some lake effect snow/rain continuing downwind of the Great Lakes. Then on Wednesday we will  be dealing with a fast moving weak moisture starve cold front that's gonna come through Bringing the chance for a few rain showers or higher elevation snow showers. At the same time high pressure is going to be building in overhead, But the pattern is going to remain active and on Thursday another system will be approaching the great lakes with a leading warm front lifting into our region. This generally unsettled pattern is going to continue for the foreseeable future.