More on the winter storm for Sunday and Monday!

 Over the last couple of weeks I've been talking off and on about this winter storm for over the second half of the weekend into next week. I even slipped it into the winter outlook I posted a few days ago. But over the last 2 or 3 days I have been giving it a lot of emphasis. This post will focus on what some of the major models are indicating.

The two major global models the American Global forecast system (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) (Often called the EURO) are showing two completely different scenarios. 

Both models start by showing the upper level low sitting up over or at least near the Great Lakes.

GFS 

EURO

But from here... they widely diverge on what they think will happen. The GFS Is much faster with the system and keeps it much further north. The GFS has this drop out of the Great Lakes strengthening as it tracks across  New York State into Northern New England and Southeast Canada. The euro is much slower and has this dropping south and east out of the Great Lakes moving into the Central Appalachian Mountains. Then this tracks eastward setting up shop over the Southern Middle Atlantic, as a much stronger Storm.

GFS

EURO

Based on my understanding of the model biases between these two. I think the EURO has a much better handle on the setup than the GFS.

If the EURO is correct and I strongly believe it is. The strong upper level low looks to be moving over the Central Appalachians then end up setting up over the Carolinas. This is going to set up an arctic invasion, where temperatures are going to plummet, to well below average Levels for this point in November for everyone east of the Mississippi.

Both models show a lot of cold air over the eastern 2⁄3 of the United States. But the EURO is the colder of the two

GFS

EURO

Looking at the following chart We can see the 540 line. That blue line near northern Florida that has the number 540 on it. In meteorology the 540 line is generally considered the rain/snow line when looking at these types of charts. To see it this far south at this time of year is a big deal, and signals the idea of large parts of the Northeast into the Middle Atlantic having a strong chance for at least some accumulating snow. This will be especially true for those higher elevations.

Sunday into Tuesday it is going to be very windy.

We're going to have an area of strong high pressure sitting down over Texas into the Gulf of America, Live on area of stronglow pressure sitting up over the Gulf of Maine

Looking at the chart we can see the isobars  (lines of equal pressure) are extremely tight. This will translate to very strong winds. As I said in the earlier weather post Winds of 10-30 miles an hour are very likely. With wind gust of 40-60 miles an hour and I wouldn't be surprised if some higher elevation spots see wind gust of around 70 miles an hour. This will likely lead to at least some power outages across the region.

It's still way too early to try to get into exact snowfall amounts. But this is looking like this is going to be an accumulating snow event for much of the interior Northeast and interior Middle Atlantic. The Appalachians also look to see some accumulating snow out of this. There is a chance this could end up being a decent multi day lake effect snow event for those areas downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. At this time any bands that do set up likely will be moving around a bit. So that could help limit any one area from getting hammered too bad.

I'm not trying to hype anything. I'm just trying to keep all y'all in the loop as  far  as how things look at this time. There is time for the setup to adjust and change.  I will know more as things evolve and time goes on.