Trending east!

 

Today is mostly dry,  but very cold. Tomorrow is gonna see plenty of sun but it will still be quite cold. Here's a look at the current surface and radar combination chart.

There has been a trend east in the weather models.

Last night's run of the GFS and EURO, courtesy of tropical tidbits

Today's latest runs of the GFS and euro, courtesy of tropical tidbits

Both runs show the models are virtually unchanged and look almost identical with the placement of the closed off 500 mb low sitting down over Georgia. This is much further south than the model's had the placement just a few days ago; when it was kind of centered near the Carolinas.  Both models have energy (kicker) out west. With a 500 mb low very far south; the kicker will push it off the coast well to the south and east of the Middle Atlantic and New England. This is the reason for that eastern shift were seeing in the models. Which is leading to snowfall forecasted totals to be much less than they were just 24 hours ago. 

GFS

EURO

Model images courtesy of tropical tidbits.

Kurchera snowfall amounts courtesy of pivotal weather

The models show very limited total accumulated precipitation and snowfall. But the air is going be very cold and dry. So there's not gonna be an awful lot of moisture available to produce snow. But with snowfall ratios of 20-1 to 30-1. There would be enough moisture that snow would be accumulating fairly quickly.

If the current model runs are correct This would place the 2" snowfall line across southeast Maryland (across Calvert County up thru Caroline County), through central Delaware and sitting just north of Cape May. The 4" line would be across far southern Maryland (Saint Mary's County) and extreme southeast Delaware. The 8 inch line would be over Worcester County in Maryland. A dusting to less than  1 inch across far western Long Island including possibly New York City  into parts of southeast New York State, Extending down into Pennsylvania Possibly including Philadelphia , a coating to an inch or so also looks possible  for most of Massachusetts, much of Connecticut, large part of Rhode Island including providence. 1-3 inches could fall across  far eastern Massachusetts Including Boston, across far southeastern Rhode Island. 2-4 inches is possible for  southeast Massachusetts south and east of Boston, A general 3-6 inches for the Cape with localized spots seeing 6-8" Nantucket will likely see 6-12+ inches. Snow would graze the Downeast Maine Coast with perhaps 1-3  inches.

The question is can we believe the shift?

It's fairly extraordinary to see that cutoff low this far south in the arctic air mass. Many times in the past we have seen the models correct and come further north in this type of situation. So are the models getting overly excited and overplaying their hand? Maybe. All I can say is I'm not completely buying into what they're saying. I expect by tomorrow we will see that  closed off 500 mb low a little further north. But will the storm come a lot further West in the track? Maybe a little But I don't think it's going to change the general outcome of what we're gonna see here in our region. The storm is gonna stay  far enough off-shore that it will just brush our region with wind and snow along the coast. Winds across New England are going to be 15-25 miles an hour with gust of 30-40 miles an hour. For places like Cape Cod and Nantucket winds will be 30-40 miles an hour with gust of  50-60 miles an hour possible.

Looking ahead to February.

We look to see a major disruption in the polar vortex. 

The polar vortex Is a region of arctic low pressure that circles around the Arctic circle. When this is strong It locks the cold air up over the arctic. When the polar vortex is weak We  tend to see disruptions That Lead to a wavy jet stream and allow cold air over the arctic region to plunge southward into the lower latitudes. 

We look to see a strong sudden stratospheric  event. That looks to completely collapse the polar vortex, Beginning to the polar vortex splitting.

It often takes 5-10 days from the disruption to the release of cold in the lower latitudes. If this collapse does occur; it looks like it will release prolong cold into North America and over Europe.  For here, this looks to bring very cold air Into the eastern 2⁄3 of the United States heading into the middle February and going through the end of February possibly even into the 1st part of March.

Next week we're going to see the temperatures try to moderate a little bit And getting closer to what is considered average for this time of year. But I really don't think it's going to last very long. As the temperatures for the second half of February look to be pretty cold. 

As we get closer to mid month there are signs that that ridiculously strong west coast ridge that's plugged that region all winter is gonna try to flatten out a bit. This will be the result of La Nina continuing to move stronger into neutral territory. During the second half of February the subtropical jet is looking to be quite active. We also look to have blocking sitting up over Greenland. With the northern jet looking to stay active with plenty of clippers loaded to come down into the eastern US. So I think the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic is going to continue to see chances for snow and possibly even a few more bigger coastal storms developed during the second half of the month into March.

So basically February looks to be a continuation of what we've seen here in January.

Have a great weekend!

First thoughts on snowfall amounts for Saturday night and Sunday

 

Here is a look at the surface chart and radar

We can see Arctic high pressure is extending over the region Bringing extremely cold temperatures into the region. Winds are 5-15 miles an hour The cost of 20-25 miles an hour possible during the day This will create a very Cold wind chill. So if you have to go outside make sure you bundle up and layers and keep exposed areas of skin covered. Car shows Shows lake effect snow falling downwind closer to lake Erie and lake Ontario. For the rest of the region It's mostly dry with sun and clouds But I can't rule out a few very isolated snow showers or snow flurries especially in and near the Long Island Sound. Tomorrow is gonna be a rinse and repeat of today.

There was a question on the Rebecca's Northeast Weather Group that asked about snow amounts here on the Tug Hill. I can tell you we have been getting hit hard for several weeks. Snowfall accumulations up here are well over 125 inches so far for the season. Many parts of the Tug Hill have a snow pack of 5-10+ feet.  But as much as this is a lot of snowfall, at least for now it's not as bad as it was last winter up here on the Tug.

The weekend storm

Infrared satellite Shows our storm Developing 2 pieces  of energy along with a shortwave further north are starting to interact.

The storm is gonna start coming together over the southern states on Friday. The storm will become much better organized Friday night into Saturday. This is when 6-12 inches of snow will be possible across parts of the Appalachians as well as eastern North Carolina Into eastern Virginia. Heavier snow Is also gonna be falling around the Delmarvia Peninsula. The storm is going to be off the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday. Once off shore because of the cold air over the US and that warm moist air off the southeast coast the storm is going to start to rapidly intensify. It will continue to intensify as it moves north and east, well off the coast of the Middle Atlantic and south and east of New England.

EURO Courtesy of tropical tidbit

NAM courtesy of tropical tidbits

I've been saying this isn't going to be a huge snowstorm for the region. and for the most part, it won't be. But that doesn't mean there aren't gonna be places in New England that don't see snow. As I've been saying we're going to have very cold temperatures and the air is going to be very dry. So the snow is going to have a lot of fluff to it just like the last storm.

The storm is going to bomb out becoming a very powerful nor'easter. It's going to track off the coast and just brush the Middle Atlantic and New England Coast.  In spite of that, heavy snow is likely right along the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and along the coast of long island and New England.

Here are my first thoughts on possible regional snowfall amounts from this nor'easter

less than an inch to nothing for part of central Pennsylvania, eastern and northeast New York State  extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and down into the Catskills and part of the southern tier, northwest Massachusetts  and Vermont.

1 to 2 inches of snow  for central Maryland Likely including Washington DC, northern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania Including Philadelphia the poconos could also see 1 to 2 inches, the lower Hudson valley in southeast New York State likely including New York City, across western Connecticut, central Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire and up through central Maine. 

3 to 4 inches of snow across eastern Maryland, central Delaware, western Long Island, central Connecticut, northwest Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts north and west of Boston, the New Hampshire Sea Coast and far southwest Maine as well  as near the coastal plain of Maine including Downeast.

4 to 8 inches for southwest Maryland southwest Delaware, eastern Long Island, extreme  southeast Connecticut, much of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts away from the Cape this includes Boston.

8 to 12 inches of snow is going to be possible across Cape Cod, the off-shore islands and Downcast Maine.

The storm is going to bring strong winds with it. So it's gonna be a big deal for areas closer to the New England Coast where winds of 40-50 miles an hour with gust of 60-70 mph possible. This will especially be true for Cape Cod and the off-shore islands. Interior parts of New England will be dealing with winds of 20 to 30 mph with gust possibly around 40 miles an hour.

The strong winds along with it being astronomical high tide, will mean coastal flooding and beach erosion is also going to be a problem. Water levels could be 2-5 feet higher than average

It is going to be possible for blizzard like conditions for eastern Long Island, the Cape and off shore islands, along the eastern Massachusetts Coast possibly including even Boston, and maybe even Downeast Maine up into far eastern Maine. The nor'easter will be moving away on Monday heading into the Canadian Maritimes.

The Canadian Maritimes are going to be blasted. This will be especially true for Nova Scotia and Halifax.

have a great day

A quick look at the trends and storm analysis and a little bit on the great lakes

 

What happens with the storm will depend on timing of the key features.

Friday night into Saturday is when our attention is going to start turning to the system that's developing off the southeastern US coast. 

Looking at the EURO and then the GFS.

EURO

The EURO has the moving toward us Saturday night and Sunday. It has an upper level low  in the Tennessee valley and a low off the Carolina Coast.  The European has it  hitting  the southern Middle Atlantic as it shows the low phasing and trying to stall. As it tries to  head north it grazes the New Jersey Coast with maybe 2 to 3 inches. Then it starts to track north and east Bringing some impacts eastern Long Island (maybe New York City) into Southeast New England (especially the Off-shore islands, Cape and Boston) As well for Downeast Maine.

GFS

Last night's run had The GFS much more aggressive and farther north and west. Since then It has drifted closer to the EURO.  The GFS has this slamming the southern Middle Atlantic. It still as the upper level low up over the Tennessee valley. This has it intensifing further east bringing heavier snow just east of  New Jersey, showing a big hit  for east Long Island into south eastern New England.

Thursday We're going to have a piece of energy come onshore an set up over the Pacific Northwest and another piece of energy that's up north of the Great Lakes that will eventually become the upper level Low That will move into the Tennessee valley and set the stage for what's to come. The timing and speed of both these features Is going to determine how the storm evolves. Both of these should start working together somewhere over the southeast US. Both models have different ideas on exactly when that is going to happen and take place.

Both global models are quite similar. Last night there was some slight shifting east in the track on the models. But the models have been waffling east and west with the track. There is still time for more of that, But the window is closing on that possibility. 

Based on what I'm seeing right now I don't think The storm is gonna come up the coast just east of the Delmarva and  south of Long Island in the goldilocks zone. I think that arctic high pressure is just going to be just too strong for that. Nor do I think this is going straight  out to sea. I think it's going to take a track somewhere in between those two possibilities. With this storm just grazing coastal New Jersey Up across eastern Long Island and southeast New England into Downeast Maine. With the arctic air in place The snow is once again going to have a high fluff factor, So these areas could end up seeing 6 maybe 12 inches of snow. The Carolinas into Georgia and the tidewater of Virginia could see quite a bit of snow out of this. 

I still think this is not going to be a major storm for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. It will likely have a coastal impact.  Wind is likely going to be a bigger factor in this along with  coastal flooding than the snow. Blizzard like conditions are a possibility for places like the Cape.

Great Lakes

A look at great lakes ice coverage

Heading into the winter the water temperatures across all five Great Lakes was at record highs. But the overall below average temperature since November have been lowering The water temperatures. So that now we do have ice build up on the Great Lakes. Looking at the images we can see that lake Erie and the northern half of Georgian Bay off of lake Huron are almost completely ice covered. But Lakes superior, Michigan, large part of Huron and Ontario still have a lot of open water. 

Total ice coverage across the Great Lakes is higher than this time over the last few years compared to this year. 

The amount of ice over the great lakes is very important when trying to forecast lake affect snow The more ice over the lakes the higher the chance that it will reduce the intensity of the lake effect bands. Lake effect snow bands can still set up but impacts are typically  reduced and tend to stay closer to the lake shore.

Could we see a blizzard this weekend?

 We have that weak clipper that is looking to become even weaker and basicly fall apart!

It will produce a little bit of lake effect and a few isolated snow showers or flurries  across the region. The areas that see them Could see a dusting to perhaps 2 inches. Those downwind of lake Erie in lake Ontario could pick up  6-12 inches today but away from the lake effect it won't be too bad. The main story this week is going to be the cold! Tomorrow through friday the weather is gonna be basically a rinse and repeat of what we're seeing today. With  lake effect snow oscillating north and south downwind of the lakes and chances for isolated snow showers and flurries elsewhere, with temperatures continuing to be in the basement.

As I said a few weeks ago after January 15 it was going to get cold and stay cold. The national weather service is showing that we are going to stay well below average very cold temperatures for at least the rest of January. I still think at least the 1st half of February is going to continue to see these overall cold temperatures.

The pattern is going to remain Very active And progressive With many chances for snowstorms as we move forward into February.

The weekend!

The winter storm for the end of this week and the weekend won't cover as much real estate across the lower 48. But it could have a bigger impact for parts of our region, depending on how it sets up and tracks.

It's cold outside no doubt about that But later this week we're gonna have a reinforcing shot an ejection of cold arctic air back into the eastern half of the United States. The cold air looks to make it down into the deep south maybe as far south as central Florida. This will set the stage for a possible southeast and east coast Snowstorm. Just like the last one we are going to see a strong area of arctic high pressure Push into the planes and middle Atlantic. At the same time we are going to have a lot of mild warm air sitting over the Gulf trying to push north.  On friday we should see low pressure tracking near the Gulf Coast, Or more likely out over the Gulf along a frontal boundry. By Saturday morning this should be near  the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast. How quickly this area of low pressure can get its act together will be a factor and if it tracks out to sea or tries to come up the East Coast. The stronger the low pressure The more likely it is to come up the Coast over the weekend. In yesterday's post I went over the scenarios that could happen.

Of the 3 scenarios I think scenario #1 and #2 are the most likely. If the 2nd scenario is in fact the one we see We will likely see Low pressure track out of the Gulf And start to track north and east along the Coast. From here there is a good chance we could see the northern jet and the tropical jet phase off the Carolina coast. As the storm continues along it's track there is a chance it could rapidly intensify and even obtain Bombogenesis (bomb out). Bombogenesis means a storm drops around 24 millibars in 24 hours. In this case, becoming a powerful classic nor'easter. This is gonna have the potential for very heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding. If the storm bombs out I can't rule out this becoming an actual blizzard. If there's a phase closer to the Coast, The storm would slow down or even stall. It could be pulled closer to the Coast, leading to a huge impact for the Middle Atlantic and New England.

To be considered a blizzard, you need at least 3 consecutive hours of  winds of 35mph or higher, with visibility less than a quarter of a mile. A blizzard It's not a sure bet, It's only a possibility. For I want to mention it just in case.

This would mean heavy snow across eastern Pennsylvania, the northern Middle Atlantic Southeast New York state including the Capital District and a large part of New England. Along with this there would be strong winds possibly even damaging, as well as coastal flooding.

On the other hand if we get scenario #1 the storm The storm would head north and east away from the Carolinas and track further off the Coast. The streams will still end up phasing, but that will happen too far east to have a major impact on us. Bringing a glancing blow to the coastal plain of the northern Middle Atlantic and New England. The 1st scenario could also see the storm completely miss the Middle Atlantic and New England as it heads out to sea. But the odds of  that happening is a bit lower.

The storm is going to consist of three energy components. One is sitting up near Hudson Bay. Second one is sitting south of the Aleutians and the third is sitting west of California south and east of Hawaii. All of these piece have to come together just right. So it's a complex and dynamic setup.

The Key and how this is going to track is energy that is currently out over the Pacific that will track into the Pacific Northwest and then drop south and east along the western ridge, heading towards the Gulf.  We're also going to have that trough that is going to be dropping south, bringing in an arctic air mass and setting the stage for a possible major storm. The speed and placement of  the area of developing low pressure is going to be the main determining factor on which scenario happens. If the low pressure is slower and a little weaker it won't be able to get out in front of the trough. If this happens it would move behind the trough axis and head out to sea. However if the area of low pressure is faster and stronger It will get out ahead of that neutral or negatively tilted trough and be able to come north and east up the Coast.

I'm not saying we're going to have a major storm here in the Northeast. All I'm saying is there is potential for one. As I always say to get a major storm everything has to line up just right. The patterns supports the idea of a major storm. The question is will it produce. Nothing to get overly excited about yet. I'm just trying to avoid the hype and just lay out the science of what might happen.

That explains the possibilities of what could happen. Now what really looks to happen!

The American GFS and European EURO are looking similar but the GFS is a little further to the west. 

GFS global Courtesy tropical tidbits

GFS ensemble Courtesy tropical tidbits

EURO global Courtesy tropical tidbits

EURO ensemble Courtesy tropical tidbits

The GFS is stronger than the EURO. There is no doubt we're going to have a big storm that is going to bomb out off the coast. The only real question is on the track the storm is going to take and how far to the east it will be when it does bomb out. Once again we're in a situation where we have strong arctic high pressure sitting north of the track. It's going to be hard for this coastal to push into that high pressure.

GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO Courtesy tropical tidbits

As of right now, this storm looks to be going to stay just to the east, But won't take much to bring it further west.  With the bulk of the precipitation off the Coast later Saturday and Sunday it is still going to be very windy as the storm looks to become very strong. So the bottom line is no blizzard or even major impacts here in the Northeast at this time. But moderate impacts will be possible especially in the coastal plain.  Any subtle variations in the elements and setup could have this closer to the coast and bringing a major hit to Middle Atlantic into the Northeast. We will just have to watch and see how things evolve over the next couple of days.