First thoughts on snowfall amounts for Saturday night and Sunday

 

Here is a look at the surface chart and radar

We can see Arctic high pressure is extending over the region Bringing extremely cold temperatures into the region. Winds are 5-15 miles an hour The cost of 20-25 miles an hour possible during the day This will create a very Cold wind chill. So if you have to go outside make sure you bundle up and layers and keep exposed areas of skin covered. Car shows Shows lake effect snow falling downwind closer to lake Erie and lake Ontario. For the rest of the region It's mostly dry with sun and clouds But I can't rule out a few very isolated snow showers or snow flurries especially in and near the Long Island Sound. Tomorrow is gonna be a rinse and repeat of today.

There was a question on the Rebecca's Northeast Weather Group that asked about snow amounts here on the Tug Hill. I can tell you we have been getting hit hard for several weeks. Snowfall accumulations up here are well over 125 inches so far for the season. Many parts of the Tug Hill have a snow pack of 5-10+ feet.  But as much as this is a lot of snowfall, at least for now it's not as bad as it was last winter up here on the Tug.

The weekend storm

Infrared satellite Shows our storm Developing 2 pieces  of energy along with a shortwave further north are starting to interact.

The storm is gonna start coming together over the southern states on Friday. The storm will become much better organized Friday night into Saturday. This is when 6-12 inches of snow will be possible across parts of the Appalachians as well as eastern North Carolina Into eastern Virginia. Heavier snow Is also gonna be falling around the Delmarvia Peninsula. The storm is going to be off the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday. Once off shore because of the cold air over the US and that warm moist air off the southeast coast the storm is going to start to rapidly intensify. It will continue to intensify as it moves north and east, well off the coast of the Middle Atlantic and south and east of New England.

EURO Courtesy of tropical tidbit

NAM courtesy of tropical tidbits

I've been saying this isn't going to be a huge snowstorm for the region. and for the most part, it won't be. But that doesn't mean there aren't gonna be places in New England that don't see snow. As I've been saying we're going to have very cold temperatures and the air is going to be very dry. So the snow is going to have a lot of fluff to it just like the last storm.

The storm is going to bomb out becoming a very powerful nor'easter. It's going to track off the coast and just brush the Middle Atlantic and New England Coast.  In spite of that, heavy snow is likely right along the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and along the coast of long island and New England.

Here are my first thoughts on possible regional snowfall amounts from this nor'easter

less than an inch to nothing for part of central Pennsylvania, eastern and northeast New York State  extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and down into the Catskills and part of the southern tier, northwest Massachusetts  and Vermont.

1 to 2 inches of snow  for central Maryland Likely including Washington DC, northern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania Including Philadelphia the poconos could also see 1 to 2 inches, the lower Hudson valley in southeast New York State likely including New York City, across western Connecticut, central Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire and up through central Maine. 

3 to 4 inches of snow across eastern Maryland, central Delaware, western Long Island, central Connecticut, northwest Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts north and west of Boston, the New Hampshire Sea Coast and far southwest Maine as well  as near the coastal plain of Maine including Downeast.

4 to 8 inches for southwest Maryland southwest Delaware, eastern Long Island, extreme  southeast Connecticut, much of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts away from the Cape this includes Boston.

8 to 12 inches of snow is going to be possible across Cape Cod, the off-shore islands and Downcast Maine.

The storm is going to bring strong winds with it. So it's gonna be a big deal for areas closer to the New England Coast where winds of 40-50 miles an hour with gust of 60-70 mph possible. This will especially be true for Cape Cod and the off-shore islands. Interior parts of New England will be dealing with winds of 20 to 30 mph with gust possibly around 40 miles an hour.

The strong winds along with it being astronomical high tide, will mean coastal flooding and beach erosion is also going to be a problem. Water levels could be 2-5 feet higher than average

It is going to be possible for blizzard like conditions for eastern Long Island, the Cape and off shore islands, along the eastern Massachusetts Coast possibly including even Boston, and maybe even Downeast Maine up into far eastern Maine. The nor'easter will be moving away on Monday heading into the Canadian Maritimes.

The Canadian Maritimes are going to be blasted. This will be especially true for Nova Scotia and Halifax.

have a great day