Looks like a swing and a miss!

 Today is seasoning chilly but away from the lakes the weather is fairly tranquil. 

Here's a look at the surface chart radar and satellite.

The surface chart Show us a couple troughs Over the area Region. While the radar shows Snow flurries up over New York state into new England with some lake enhanced Snow setting up and falling off from lake Ontario. Other than that The rest of the region is seen a mix of sun and clouds. Tonight and tomorrow Everything settles down and Tuesday is looking to be dry and fairly nice for this time of year. 

When we look at the continental IR radar image we can see there are few short waves that are working away towards and into the great lakes We can also see that disturbance over the pacific northwest As well as at disturbance over New Mexico. This will come into play for Thursday into Friday.

On Wednesday we're gonna have an area of strong low pressure North of the lakes moving across southeast Canada; This is going to drag a cold front across our region. A head of the cold front We are going to have a warm front lifting through That will set off scattered rain showers and mix. Then late Wednesday into Thursday The cold front is going to slowly drop from the northwest to the southeast Changing rain showers over to snow showers, as the colder air filters in over the region. 

Friday we are going to have low pressure sitting up near or over the Gulf of Maine With troughs rotating around it that will set off snow showers across the region. I've been talking about the influx of the cold air for several weeks and the potential for winter storms Thursday into Friday and for Sunday into Monday. In the discussions about  the first storm I've talked about the pattern and many of the players that will decide how things go. Yesterday I talked about the MJO and how its current phase does not favor a big East Coast storm. In meteorology when dealing with storms the two big factors that we have to figure out is location and timing.  To get storms all the players have to line up perfectly. When we look at the setup for Thursday we are going to have that trough coming in It looks to be a little bit faster Way of the trough axis I bit further east than ideal, than what projections were showing. As a result the trough trough looks to become neutral Which will keep the southern energy slightly behind the trough Instead the southwest flow ahead of that trough is going to allow the storm to move north and east off the coast.  The location of the upper level Low is further north than you would like to see for  a big snowstorm. The trough axis is going to become negative too late to bring the I -95 and the region as a whole a big winter storm.  The upper level low is going to slide across New York  into New England and head for the Gulf of Maine. There will be cold air in place and so as this upper level feature is sliding east it will bring snow New York State and New England. across central and southeast Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic the down slope off the Appalachian will likely keep this all rain with a chance for some mixing for Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia. New York City into Long Island will have a slightly better chance to see some snow showers and mixing. Eastern Massachusetts, Eastern and southern Connecticut as well as Rhode Island could see a little bit of snow mix But right now accumulations don't look very heavy at all. Boston Will have to be watched as you will be on the cusp and could see some limited accumulation out of all this. But to be fair that would be a long shot. Upper level Low's Can be very tricky with this set up I can't completely rule out a chance for a band to try to set up over Maryland Delaware and in New Jersey. This could bring a surprise accumulation of some into this area. I think the chance of this happening is low; But I do want to keep my options open so I'm mentioning it. Interior parts of the Northeast which would be western and northern Pennsylvania much of New York State, Western Massachusetts and northern New England Would likely see some accumulating snow. These areas would see widespread but scattered snow showers with many areas picking up a few inches  of snow.