01/20/2026

 Today is going to be very cold With snow downwind of the Great Lakes. But if you think this is cold wait until the weekend!

Surface chart and radar.

Infrared and water vapor satellite images

2 meter air temperatures

Image credit tropical tidbits

The surface chart shows high pressure is in control With areas away from the great great lakes Seeing a mix of sun and clouds and dry conditions. The IR satellite shows The lake effect snow bands downwind of lake Erie and lake Ontario Producing significant snowfall in those areas.  The water vapor image The deep trough associated with this high pressure dropping in for the north. The trough is that swath of blue over the northern Middle Atlantic and extending west. The image also shows that blob of yellow over the Southwest US. Which is going to be part of our Storm for Sunday

Most of the region is in the single digits With  negative numbers showing up for the northern areas especially in the higher elevations. The southern areas and the urban areas along the coast are in the teens to low 20s. 

Winds will be breezy 5-15 miles an hour with some gust to 20 to  25 mph. This is going to create very cold wind chills.

Tomorrow the high pressure is going to push east and off the coast; setting up a southern flow that will allow our temperatures to become a bit milder but they likely will still be below average for this time of year. The wind shift will bring an end to this current bout of lake effect snow.

Our next arctic front and trough comes in for Wednesday night into Thursday. With the frontal passage We will see a few scattered snow showers or flurries over northern areas with scattered rain showers or mix for southern areas. But all in all precipitation shouldn't be that big of a deal.  Behind this front temperatures are going to be in free fall during Thursday into friday morning. We are likely to see the coldest air so far this winter across the region.

Image credit Tropical tidbits

Saturday We're going to have high pressure moving in providing Dry conditions Along with very dry air. So we will likely have quite a bit of Sun. Leading to extremely cold temperatures. Make sure if you're gonna be outside you dress in layers, with these kind of temperatures it won't take long for frostbite to set in. With the cold air moving over the relatively warmer great lakes we are going to see lake effect once again set up downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.

We are going to have a couple areas of very strong arctic high pressure North of the storm track.  One area of high pressure will be sitting over the upper midwest into the upper Great Lakes. The second area of  high pressure will be sitting over New York State into northern New England. We're going to be having an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary, We have the subtropical jet allowing increased moisture to work into the storm. As I said yesterday, the location and strength of these areas of  high pressure especially the one over the northeast will have a lot to say about the actual track the storm is going to take and impacts in our region.

GFS Courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO Courtesy of tropical tidbits

As I explained yesterday The strength and placement Of the high pressure will be the major key in how this storm tracks and unfolds. Over the northern tier of the US we're going to have what is called a banana high It's called this because its shape is similar To a banana. Looking at both The EURO and GFS we can see they look very similar. With high pressure of 1044mb-1054mb which is extremely strong. If high pressure remains this strong and verifies what the models are showing; it is indeed going to suppress this storm south. With the setup there is a potential for a significant ice storm across the southern states from Texas all the way to the East Coast. There is a chance that these areas could see an inch to over 2 inches of ice. If that verifies this would be a crippling event for the southern states.  On the northern side of that there will be snow. But with the air so dry any snow that falls will have a high fluff factor. So significant snowfall is possible across Maryland, Delaware into southern and maybe central New Jersey with the liquid to snow ratio 15--1 to 20-1 several inches of snow is possible in these areas. Depending on the northern extent of that snow shield southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey could end up with moderate snowfall. Snowfall amounts would drop off south to north. Snow would be continuing into Monday.

The GFS doesn't show this coastal redevelopment 

Images credit tropical tidbits.

One thing we're going to have to watch out  for late Monday into Tuesday is the possibility of this low pressure redeveloping off the Middle Atlantic coast. With the setup as it is, as this is moving north and east it could rapidly develop. Tuesday would see the storm pulling away. This is a  very complex set up. If the storm stays suppressed to the south. The possible coastal development would also be further south. With all the variables we are still in a wait and see. Nothing is set in stone as I am juggling several possibilities.

Have a great rest of your day and try to stay warm!