Yesterday's clipper is pulling to the east and radar shows Lake effect snow continuing to fall downwind of the lakes. Today is much warmer than it was yesterday But as the cold front slides through these temperatures are going to plummet for tomorrow into the weekend.
Another look at the big picture.
Over the last couple of days this storm has been trending north; As of now that trend is still there.
Courtesy of tropical tidbits
That incredibly strong Arctic high pressure is going to drive Arctic air into the United States. At the same time We have that upper level low That will track off the pacific and across Baja California. The upper level low is going to inject warm moist air with a lot of water vapor being injected into the frontal boundary from the Gulf of America. All this warm air is going to overrun The cold air being ejected south.
This is going to be a catastrophic ice storm for Texas all the way into the Tennessee valley, the Carolinas and Virginia.
EURO
NAM
The medium range NAM model is just starting to come into range and it looks very similar to the two global models.
As I said yesterday, this storm is looking like it's going to be a miller B, So we're going to see the low pressure tracking north and east just to the west of the Appalachians. As the low tracks towards Tennessee It is going to be pulling that warm air Northward with it. With that extremely strong area of high pressure sitting to the north, That area of low pressure can only go so far north, To me it looks like it will make it to West Virginia. Then we're going to see the energy transfer to the Mid Atlantic Coast and develop into a coastal low. As I've been saying, that strong high pressure is going to direct a lot of cold air Into the region. The air over the weekend is going to be the coldest air we've seen in quite some time. This cold air is going to wedge itself to the east of the Appalachians. Setting the stage for a possible monster storm.
A look at the national weather service Watches advisories and warnings ahead of this coming event
The warnings and advisories east of lake Ontario has to do with the ongoing lake effect snow falling downwind of lake Ontario. These warnings are going to stay in place into tomorrow. We are still a few days out from the weekend event. So because there's still some uncertainty the national weather service isn't issuing warnings and stuff for the nor'easter across the rest of New York State into New England at this time.
A very early look at possible impacts
The coast of New Jersey down into the Chesapeake Bay could see a change over to rain. But if this is a direct hit, with the bitter cold the snow to liquid ratio is going to be 15-1 to 20-1 even 25-1 is possible. If this is the case and trying to keep things conservative; Western Maryland all of Pennsylvania much of New Jersey all of New York State and the vast majority of New England would have a good shot at seeing 8-18 inches of snow with possibly locally higher amounts. The current scenario would put 4-8 inches of snow/mix across much of eastern Maryland (Including DC and Baltimore), Delaware into southern New Jersey away from the Coast, before a changeover to sleet and ice. If the storm can push far enough north and more west allowing it to inject some warm air, Philadelphia, New York City and Long Island could see some mixing as well. Mixing would cut down on snow totals. So if that happens, these areas could see 4-10 inches of snow.
As the coastal low deepens it will likely become a nor'easter as it tracks north and east. This is going to drag a lot of moisture off from the Atlantic and direct it into interior parts of Pennsylvania New York State as well as New England. With the extremely cold air that will be locked in place this moisture is going to be all snow. That temperature gradient Is also going to try to be become a catalyst and possibly blow this storm up into something major. Winds for Sunday into Monday are going to be likely quite strong.
Remember this is not an actual forecast It's only a look at what looks to be setting up. As I've been saying this is not yet set in stone and there's still time for this solution to alter and possibly have this storm a little further south and east. Bought the window for southern shift in the track Is closing.
That's it for now
I feel bad for the people getting all that ice. It's going to be devastating for them.
ReplyDeleteYes it's going to be crippling
DeleteThe storm I’ve been waiting for here in Albany area! Things have been looking good. -Dave Ainspan -as always enjoy your updates!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome
DeleteThank you for the update! I live in the high peaks and have to bring my son back to Oswego this weekend.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome...if you can do it Saturday
DeleteWe just received our watch but just a NON- Meteorological thought on this storm.I have never doubted a forecast by Rebecca,however this set-up is just too familiar.This Article air Will certainly come into the area,it will drive into the Southern East Coast preventing the Coastal Storm from making it this far North.This is exactly the type of storm that brushes Boston and buries the Cape.We sit here looking out at Partly Cloudy Skies and the Temperatures in the single numbers, after a morning low of -7.I have seen 12-15 storms with this type of setup and never had too start the Snowblower.We watch T.V. and the Blizzard Conditions along the Southern Coast and Blizzard Conditions on the Cape.I don’t think it can Snow in Northwest Massachusetts if the Temperature is below 15*.I would Love to see a 2 day storm,Snow over an inch per hour,30 mph winds with gust to 60 and Temperatures at 10 degrees,but that can’t happen,it hasn’t in 45+ years and won’t in the next 45 hours Schools are most likely going to be closed by tomorrow Afternoon and Monday the kids will be everywhere with nothing to do,certainly no Snow to shovel.Good Luck to coastal Connecticut,Long Island,Eastern Pennsylvania,N,J.,Boston and the Cape.
ReplyDeleteThis is not a knock on Rebecca,she has no power over this,this is too powerful too combat,even for her.It better be,if not,I will be dancing outside in a Nor’easter with my choice of One piece of clothing.Snowmobile suit and one piece long John’s have been eliminated.
What you say is true I have been talking about that strong area of high pressure for several days And how it could suppress the storm south. As I said in this post There is still possible. But the Window For that to occur Is getting smaller and smaller as we move forward. On this current post I was very hesitant to even talk about snowfall amounts. But I was afraid If I waited too much longer It wouldn't give people time to prepare for what looks to be coming. Sometimes When forecasting an event like this You have to take a leap of faith. Yes this storm could Fail to push north, But I'm not really sold on that. I think the region will be here by the storm I'm just not sold I'm overall extent From northern parts of the region. I should have a much better idea on how this is gonna go tomorrow. The 8-18 inches I talk about in this post Is on table and is possible. Thank you for your comment It is very well thought out!
ReplyDeleteThank you for the efforts. Much appreciated.
ReplyDelete