The first widespread major storm of the season

A quick update on the storm 

This is going to be a major winter storm for the Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic. It will also be a catastrophic ice storm for a large part of Texas Across Missouri and Arkansas right up into Virginia and down into the Carolinas and north Georgia. With very heavy snow Stretching from the Texas Panhandle all the way up through New England

3k NAM images courtesy of tropical tidbits

I'm using the 3K NAM because generally I think it's doing OK with the storm But it may be overdoing the northern extent of the sleet and freezing rain.

As far as impacts There hasn't been much change in my thoughts from yesterday. Our region is going to see a lot of snow. Warm air (warm air advection) will be pushing north into this very cold air allowing some areas to change over to sleet and freezing rain due to overrunning. But even the areas that eventually change over to sleet and some freezing rain and even over to rain for parts of southern New Jersey down into Delaware. There is going to be a front end thump of several inches of snow.

The snowfall amounts I laid out yesterday Still look to be well inside the ballpark. The areas that end up seeing sleet and freezing rain will be definitely across the northern Middle Atlantic, Southern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey and maybe into New York City, Long Island and southern parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island as well as the Cape and off-shore Islands will end up on the lower end of the scale as far as total snow amounts.  Whereas the areas that see  just snow will end up on the higher end of the scale. Go to yesterday's post on the storm to see my forecasted snowfall amounts. Two other mesoscale models the HRRR and FV3 keep  the sleet and ice south of NYC and Long Island. Given how strong that arctic high is, these models could be correct.

Watches and warnings

As expected the National Weather Service has now issued Winter Storm Warnings for the vast majority of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Sometime today I expect NWS Portland and Caribou to issue warnings for New Hampshire and parts of Maine.

In the past we have seen much bigger storms than this one. But here in the Northeast this is going to be the biggest storm we've seen in several years. 

The general timing I talked about looks unchanged.

Be prepared for rough travel due to heavy snow, gusty winds and localized power outages. Some areas are going to be dealing with white out conditions. It will take a couple of days to dig out. 

Stay warm and safe.