Wx4cast: February 2026

A quick look at week ahead a little more on the long range and a look at some seasonal snow totals I've found.

Today it's still very cold and that breeze is making it feel even colder. Today will be the end of cold we've been experiencing. Starting tomorrow temperature is gonna start to turn a bit milder, temperatures are going to be warmer than they have been; but they're still going to be considered below average for this time of year. These relatively milder temperatures aren't going to stick around, By this coming weekend we're going to once again be heading towards the basement.

Monday (Groundhog's Day) It's gonna start out quite cold. But then temperatures will be moderating later in the morning and through the afternoon. Who's hoping the furry want to be Meteorologist is going to see his shadow?

This coming week we're going to have a couple clippers coming through. The first will be on Tuesday. The second will be towards the end of the week.

The first clipper looks to be fairly weak So away from the Great Lakes other than scattered snow showers and some flurries it shouldn't be too impactful. But downwind of lake Erie and especially lake Ontario there will be lake effect snow falling for Wednesday into Thursday with several inches of snow possible downwind of both lakes.

The second clipper looks to be more potent and could bring more in the way of widespread snow Into a large part of the region.. The snow from this one is looking to be more in the way of a plowable event for many of y'all. Some could end up being very suprised. Behind this clipper we are going to see very cold air move back into the region. With the cold air coming back in over the Great Lakes another sizable lake effect event is likely to occur with once again lake effect snow amounts being measured in feet under the most persistent parts of the band.

A quick look ahead

it looks like these generally cold temperatures are gonna stick around at least for the month of February and likely extending into the middle of March.

As I've been saying over the last several post the active pattern we've been experiencing Looks to last right through February and maybe into March. Over the last several weeks I've been explaining the factors like the fading La Nina is the reasons for the subtropical jet becoming very active.

When I issued my winter outlook for 2025-2026 I listed several analogs that looked to be good correlations for this winter. The top analog was 2014.

The 2014 analogue has been performing very well. I see that continuing. So far this winter has been quite cold with a lot of activity. There have been several clippers, Several lake effect snow events, a few coastal events and one region wide big storm. A large part of the region has seen average to above average snowfall with some areas seen well above average snow amounts. Given the pattern that idea should continue moving forward.

The climate prediction center supports this idea

There are signals in the pattern that say next week we could have a fairly impactful storm for at least parts of the region. This would be around the middle of next week in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. There are also storm signals for the middle of the 3rd week of February.

A look at the National Weather Service seasonal snowfall totals so far for this season