Let the rollercoaster begin!

 Today is the last day of meteorological winter And tomorrow will mark the 1st day of meteorological spring. Today is quite mild across the entire region.

But it's going to be short lived As we have that system in Canada That's starting to drag a cold front into the region.

Along with the cold front We will see snow showers next and rain showers move through the region

Courtesy tropical tidbits

Those who see the snow in New York state into new England Look to see snowfall accumulations over dusting to 2 maybe 3 inches. Behind the cold front, strong high pressure is gonna build in overhead with colder air  moving back into the region, allowing temperatures to be 15-25 °F cooler than they are today.

That strong high pressure is going to suppress our next storm system to the south. 

Courtesy tropical tidbits

SEE a the Canadian high starts to shift out of here We are going to have cold air trap near the surface east of the Appalachians. That weak low  pressure moving In from our west looks be suppressed even further south than I originally thought. Most of the impacts are going to be south of the mason Dixon line. But there could be a little bit of snow/mix of a dusting to less than an inch south of Pittsburgh. Areas along and north Of interstate 64Will likely be dealing with some snow mix While area south of interstate 64 look to end up seeing more in the way of just rain.  For West Virginia Virginia into Maryland Delaware and southern New Jersey There will likely be a bit of snow on the front end, a dusting to an inch perhaps 2 in spots will be possible, This won't be especially true in the higher elevations. But any snow is going to change over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. I don't think ice accumulations are going to be a lot. But it doesn't take a lot of ice to cause problems. Eventually everything will change over to rain. 

On Tuesday We're gonna have another storm That's going to push Much further north with the Snow mix rain. But I wanna keep this post shorter. So I will go into detail on that 

stratospheric warming

 

This is going to lead wild swings in the pattern. 

As the cold air to our north gets disrupted and moves south into North America it's going to lead to severe weather outbreaks. And very likely allow stronger mid latitude cyclones to form and develop. A mid latitude cyclone is just a large-scale low pressure systems that are associated with warm and cold fronts that we experience. With the possible injection Of more cold air Pushing to the south And that southern air trying to push north it's going to set up a battleground. Storms always form along boundaries. The setup is such that some of these storms could be fairly powerful. This week we're gonna see temperature swing up and down. Then behind that Tuesday event We are going Warmer temperatures move in. As this progresses We are going to see very mild temperatures starting next weekend into the following week. This is going to cause many to experience spring fever. As the polar vortex split evolves all y'all gonna see the cold air that's gonna be in the western part of North America shift east, moving into our region. This will likely occur after the middle of the month. Even though temperatures will be overall below average to well below average for this time of year It won't be that type of January cold that we've seen. But it's not going to be till spring like warm temperatures neither. We're going into that volatile season called spring where we see wild swings in temperature and sometimes large winter type storm event that move through our region. All of that is still on the table as we move through March and into April.

More detail on next week!

 Today is gonna be very nice. We have high pressure over the region with that clipper over the southern Canadian Prairies working its way east. 

EURO Temperature outlook for Saturday, courtesy tropical tidbits.

Sunday marks the first day of meteorological spring. But temperatures are going to be quite chilly. Then for Tuesday into Wednesday and we  are gonna see below average temperatures. Then on Wednesday temperatures will be getting closer to what is considered average for this time of year. 

The EURO temperature outlook for Sunday courtesy of tropical tidbits

We can see Temperatures in the low 30s along the Mason Dixon Line.

As that cold front slides through ; we are going to see rain, mix and snow showers and maybe a few squalls on the frontal boundary. Those higher elevations will be more likely to see the snow. For the most part this should only be a dusting to an inch or so but maybe as much as 3 inches for a few of y'all.

The cold arctic air mass is gonna continue to dig into the region on Monday

The EURO temperature outlook for Monday. Courtesy of tropical tidbits

I've been talking about over running quite a bit lately. When I say it's going to be an over running event I mean we're gonna have cold air close to the surface with warm air aloft moving over the top of that.

On Monday we're gonna have high pressure sitting to the north. With a system trying to push north. That high pressure is going to help suppress this to the south.

Monday and Monday night

A piece of weak energy is going to be moving over the Ohio valley. As this tracks east; it's going to be moving into that cold dry air mass. 

The dynamics of the situation will likely lead to this energy weakening as it tracks to our south. You can see that in these 500MB vort images courtesy of tropical tidbits.

  

Courtesy tropical tidbits

So for southern Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic this is going to start as a little bit of snow and then we will see a change over to a mix of Sleet and freezing rain and then eventually this would change over to plain rain.

I can see a dusting to a coup!e of inches of snow on the northern side of the low For southern Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware New Jersey into Virginia.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

Then we will take a short break Before the next storm tracks into the region. This one will be Tuesday into early Wednesday morning . High pressure that was up over New York State into New England is going to be sliding to the east. This will allow the second storm to track further north than the first one.

South of interstate 80 there could be a little bit of a snow mix. But this will likely quickly change over to rain. Between interstate 80 and interstate 90 you will hang on to that cold air a little longer so you will see more snow before the changeover to some sleet and freezing rain, before a likely changeover to rain. Those north of 90 across northern New York State and northern New England y'all will likely see at least a few inches of snow out of this. A general 3-6 inches is a possibility. For the northern part of the region this could stay all snow or mostly all snow for the duration of the storm. These areas especially in the higher elevations could see 4-8 + inches.

Charts courtesy of tropical tidbits

Ice will be an issue for at least Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic area. But even north of there across southern New York State into southern New England there will still likely be some ice.

Behind this Tuesday Wednesday storm; we are going to start a warm up. Thursday into next week temperatures become above average to well above average for this time of year. The reason for the warmth has to do with the sudden stratospheric warning that is taking place, that will lead to a polar vortex split. Initially the split is going to effect areas to our west with colder conditions. This will allow all this warmth to move into the region for the first part of March. 

But I still think that as the polar vortex split evolves the cold is going to move into the east and bringing some cold air into the Great Lakes, Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic during the second half of march. I also think the models are overdoing the extent of how warm things are going to be over New York State into New England, due to the deeper snowpack.  Those over  southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and a large part of New Jersey are most likely going to see the warmest temperatures for our region. She to the higher sun angle and milder temperatures; we are going to see snow melt. Southern parts of the region will likely lose all or most of their snow pack. While northern areas likely hang on to at least some snow pack. As we head into the second part of March. With the snow melt flooding and ice jams will be an issue.

The next couple of storms

Surface chart and radar

We have that cold front pushing in through the region along with a weak area of low pressure passing to our south kicking off  rain and snow showers over the Middle Atlantic. You also have those weakening lake effect snow bands Coming down off from the great lakes With  isolated snow showers elsewhere. Temperatures are very marginal So there shouldn't be much if any accumulation out of the snow on the northern side of that low pressure area.

Yesterday I talked on the stratospheric warming event. This is going to be playing a role in our weather down the road. I will touch more on this at the end of this post!

This post will talk about what might happen Thursday into Friday and try to go into some detail on what could happen first part of next week.

End of this week

 Late Friday into Saturday We will see a clipped system moving across southern Canada North of the Great Lakes.  This could bring some light snow for New York State and to New England, It may be parts of Pennsylvania. But it shouldn't be that big of a deal. But what it is going to do Is allow a cold front to drop across the region. As high pressure sets up over the upper Great Lakes.That clockwise flow around the high is going to be bringing a lot of cold air back into the region for early next week. Sunday will feature temperatures that are 10-20 °F below what they were on Saturday. Sunday will likely feature Scattered snow showers across  parts of the region.

Next week

March looks to be coming in as a lion!

That high pressure will be Injecting a lot of cold dry air into the northern plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Then there will be that southern warm and moist air to the south pushing northward. We are going to see a boundary set up between these two. There will be an area of low pressure moving along this boundary. This area of low pressure won't be near as powerful  as the nor'easter was. But it will be strong enough to cause some impacts.

This is looking  to be an over running event.  The air on the northern side of this Low pressure area will be cold enough to support some snow.  It's too soon to really go into Snowfall amount details. But looking at the dynamics; I could see this producing maybe 3-6  inches of snow across southern Pennsylvania,  Maryland,  Delaware and southern New Jersey.  Northern Pennsylvania across southern New York State into southern New England could see some light snow. But the larger impact will be South of there.

The cold air is going to settle down near the surface. With that southern warm air over running cold air around 5,000' over our heads. This storm is going to have more of an icy component to it.

These areas will likely see a changeover to sleet and freezing rain. And then likely it'll turn over to plain rain.  The GFS is a little more bullish on this producing accumulating snow and is a bit further north than the other models. Put the last couple of runs It does look like it's starting to trend towards the other models.

From the Ohio valley across southern Pennsylvania to the northern Middle Atlantic states this will likely have a moderate impact as far as snow and ice go.

As I said the other day there was a chance this storm comes in two parts. The second part is also looking to be an over running event. At this time,  there is looking to be an impactful snow for areas north of interstate route 80. So Northern Pennsylvania, New York State into New England will likely see some accumulating snow. The amount of snow could very well be a plowable event . But due to the overrunning nature of the event at least some of these areas will be dealing with a icy Mess, as things transition to a mix. But who sees what will depend on the exact track and how fast the temperature transitions occur.

We're going to have high pressure sitting out into the Atlantic that is going to allow for a Southern flow for an extended.As we get into meteorological spring. 

Here's a look at the climate prediction centers 8-14 day outlook

So we're going to see at least some warmth as we move into the 1st half of march. Is the CPC overdoing the extent of the warmth here in the Northeast? I kind of think so. We have the frozen cold great lakes along with a large part of the region having a deep snow pk Yes we're going to be losing some of that snow pack. But right now it's looking to be a slow melt. So that ice and snow is going to help temper the warm air trying to push into our region. Things are gonna turn milder. But, I think the overall temperatures are going to be slightly above average during that time. I do agree with the precipitation outlook. As the pattern still looks to stay active. Then we have that sudden stratospheric warming event that's taking place. This  still looks to cause the polar vortex to split; bringing a chance for colder air to move into the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic during the second half of March and possibly into April.

Clippers moving through!

 Surface map and radar

On surface chart and radar We can see the 1st in a series of clippers Bringing a chance for snow and rain showers. I had of the 1st 1 we have a leading 1 front that has lifted through the region Showers that left  light Light accumulations of 1-3 "Across a large part of Pennsylvania New York state into new England. Most of precipitation associated to warm front is now up over new England. The 1st of 2 cold fronts Is approaching from the west ahead of this we do have some snow showers breaking out across western parts of New York state into northwestern Pennsylvania. When is cold fronts come through They will likely bring A few " of snow And across New York state into northern and central new England, general snowfall amounts look to be 1-3 " especially in the lower elevations With the higher elevations picking up a general 3-6 " of snow With some localized areas seeing maybe as much as 8". There are also likely be a few squalls that move through with that cold front, allowing moderate to heavy snow to fall for 10-30 minutes. Which  Reduce visibility. Behind the cold front we will see some lake effect startup especially downwind of lake Ontario. The lake snow shouldn't be overly heavy. But a general 1-4 " is possible. But those who get under the stronger parts of these bands could see 4-8 " maybe a little bit more than that.

later Thursday into Friday we look to have a system passing to our south. This could bring A snow mix rain event 2 southern parts of the region. This won't be a high impact event But there could be maybe a couple inches or so of snow on the northern edge of this across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and possibly southern New England.

Model images courtesy of tropical tidbits

The GFS is a bit further north and also much more bullish on snow than the EURO. It's possible this stays far enough south that none of our region see much out of it.

Over the next few days we are going to see a couple more clippers move through These clippers should be generally a bit weaker than the current one. So the impact shouldn't be as much But they will bring Scattered like snow showers and maybe a few rain showers for the southern parts of the region. We're also going to see temperatures warm during the day and cool back down at night.With the high sun angle and temperatures warming a bit we will see daytime melting of the snow pack and then as temperatures cool down at night leading to some black ice here and there, so keep that in mind!

Through Saturday we are going to have a warming trend, with Saturday being the warmest day of the next few days. Then on Sunday we're gonna have a cold front drop through, reintroducing an arctic air mass back into the region.

Monday through Wednesday we are going to see a highly complex event come through that's going to be in two waves. The first will come through later Monday and into Tuesday. with a system passing to our south; bringing a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow. Who sees what will depend on the exact track. But right now, accumulating snow will be possible on the northern side of this across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and maybe southern New England.. With a chance for sleet and freezing rain south of there

The current GFS run Courtesy of tropical tidbits

Then on Tuesday we're going to get a short break in the event before the second wave approaches and moves through for later Tuesday into Wednesday. again  the exact track and timing of all the elements are going to be key as to who sees what. But this system is looking to bring another mess of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow. Right now it looks like the impact will be across Pennsylvania the northern middle Atlantic into southern new England. Then on Tuesday as I said, we're going to have a slight break; before the second half of this event moves through the region. This one looks like it will have a bigger more widespread impact across the region. But who sees what and how much is going to depend now how quickly we can move through these temperature transitions.

I got a question On the stratosphere and polar vortex. Specifically on if we're going through a sudden stratospheric warming event Specifically on if we're going through a sudden stratospheric warming event? Many times I like to answer questions here because I'm sure if one of y'all has a question. Then many others likely have the same question.

The answer is yes, we are currently going through a sudden stratospheric warming event. This is likely to lead to a polar vortex split. One part  looks to drop south into the Asian continent. With the other half shifting south and moving into North America. This split looks to happen during the later part of next week. Typically it takes 5-10 days for the process to complete . So during the second half of march,  we could see substantial cold move back into the eastern and central United States. This cold tendency could stick around for at least a couple of weeks possibly lasting into the middle of April. This does tie into what I've been saying over the last several weeks... basically over the entire winter... on how March into April was likely going to be colder than average. But remember average temperature anomalies are much colder in  January than they are in March!