Could we see a blizzard this weekend?

 We have that weak clipper that is looking to become even weaker and basicly fall apart!

It will produce a little bit of lake effect and a few isolated snow showers or flurries  across the region. The areas that see them Could see a dusting to perhaps 2 inches. Those downwind of lake Erie in lake Ontario could pick up  6-12 inches today but away from the lake effect it won't be too bad. The main story this week is going to be the cold! Tomorrow through friday the weather is gonna be basically a rinse and repeat of what we're seeing today. With  lake effect snow oscillating north and south downwind of the lakes and chances for isolated snow showers and flurries elsewhere, with temperatures continuing to be in the basement.

As I said a few weeks ago after January 15 it was going to get cold and stay cold. The national weather service is showing that we are going to stay well below average very cold temperatures for at least the rest of January. I still think at least the 1st half of February is going to continue to see these overall cold temperatures.

The pattern is going to remain Very active And progressive With many chances for snowstorms as we move forward into February.

The weekend!

The winter storm for the end of this week and the weekend won't cover as much real estate across the lower 48. But it could have a bigger impact for parts of our region, depending on how it sets up and tracks.

It's cold outside no doubt about that But later this week we're gonna have a reinforcing shot an ejection of cold arctic air back into the eastern half of the United States. The cold air looks to make it down into the deep south maybe as far south as central Florida. This will set the stage for a possible southeast and east coast Snowstorm. Just like the last one we are going to see a strong area of arctic high pressure Push into the planes and middle Atlantic. At the same time we are going to have a lot of mild warm air sitting over the Gulf trying to push north.  On friday we should see low pressure tracking near the Gulf Coast, Or more likely out over the Gulf along a frontal boundry. By Saturday morning this should be near  the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast. How quickly this area of low pressure can get its act together will be a factor and if it tracks out to sea or tries to come up the East Coast. The stronger the low pressure The more likely it is to come up the Coast over the weekend. In yesterday's post I went over the scenarios that could happen.

Of the 3 scenarios I think scenario #1 and #2 are the most likely. If the 2nd scenario is in fact the one we see We will likely see Low pressure track out of the Gulf And start to track north and east along the Coast. From here there is a good chance we could see the northern jet and the tropical jet phase off the Carolina coast. As the storm continues along it's track there is a chance it could rapidly intensify and even obtain Bombogenesis (bomb out). Bombogenesis means a storm drops around 24 millibars in 24 hours. In this case, becoming a powerful classic nor'easter. This is gonna have the potential for very heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding. If the storm bombs out I can't rule out this becoming an actual blizzard. If there's a phase closer to the Coast, The storm would slow down or even stall. It could be pulled closer to the Coast, leading to a huge impact for the Middle Atlantic and New England.

To be considered a blizzard, you need at least 3 consecutive hours of  winds of 35mph or higher, with visibility less than a quarter of a mile. A blizzard It's not a sure bet, It's only a possibility. For I want to mention it just in case.

This would mean heavy snow across eastern Pennsylvania, the northern Middle Atlantic Southeast New York state including the Capital District and a large part of New England. Along with this there would be strong winds possibly even damaging, as well as coastal flooding.

On the other hand if we get scenario #1 the storm The storm would head north and east away from the Carolinas and track further off the Coast. The streams will still end up phasing, but that will happen too far east to have a major impact on us. Bringing a glancing blow to the coastal plain of the northern Middle Atlantic and New England. The 1st scenario could also see the storm completely miss the Middle Atlantic and New England as it heads out to sea. But the odds of  that happening is a bit lower.

The storm is going to consist of three energy components. One is sitting up near Hudson Bay. Second one is sitting south of the Aleutians and the third is sitting west of California south and east of Hawaii. All of these piece have to come together just right. So it's a complex and dynamic setup.

The Key and how this is going to track is energy that is currently out over the Pacific that will track into the Pacific Northwest and then drop south and east along the western ridge, heading towards the Gulf.  We're also going to have that trough that is going to be dropping south, bringing in an arctic air mass and setting the stage for a possible major storm. The speed and placement of  the area of developing low pressure is going to be the main determining factor on which scenario happens. If the low pressure is slower and a little weaker it won't be able to get out in front of the trough. If this happens it would move behind the trough axis and head out to sea. However if the area of low pressure is faster and stronger It will get out ahead of that neutral or negatively tilted trough and be able to come north and east up the Coast.

I'm not saying we're going to have a major storm here in the Northeast. All I'm saying is there is potential for one. As I always say to get a major storm everything has to line up just right. The patterns supports the idea of a major storm. The question is will it produce. Nothing to get overly excited about yet. I'm just trying to avoid the hype and just lay out the science of what might happen.

That explains the possibilities of what could happen. Now what really looks to happen!

The American GFS and European EURO are looking similar but the GFS is a little further to the west. 

GFS global Courtesy tropical tidbits

GFS ensemble Courtesy tropical tidbits

EURO global Courtesy tropical tidbits

EURO ensemble Courtesy tropical tidbits

The GFS is stronger than the EURO. There is no doubt we're going to have a big storm that is going to bomb out off the coast. The only real question is on the track the storm is going to take and how far to the east it will be when it does bomb out. Once again we're in a situation where we have strong arctic high pressure sitting north of the track. It's going to be hard for this coastal to push into that high pressure.

GFS courtesy of tropical tidbits

EURO Courtesy tropical tidbits

As of right now, this storm looks to be going to stay just to the east, But won't take much to bring it further west.  With the bulk of the precipitation off the Coast later Saturday and Sunday it is still going to be very windy as the storm looks to become very strong. So the bottom line is no blizzard or even major impacts here in the Northeast at this time. But moderate impacts will be possible especially in the coastal plain.  Any subtle variations in the elements and setup could have this closer to the coast and bringing a major hit to Middle Atlantic into the Northeast. We will just have to watch and see how things evolve over the next couple of days.