The hurricane season is another more than a month and a half away. But everyone is starting to wonder about how it will end up. So I wanted to go over the current setup As well as some of the possibilities that could happen.
This post is conning to tie-in to the El Nino post I did a few days ago.
Latest El Nino Post
Here is a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies
I've gone over these El nino southern oscillation index areas many times over the past few years. So I don't see a reason to go deep into that again. All I will say is that Nino region 3.4 is the one that's officially recognized and monitored to determine what the state of the ENSO is in.
We're officially in an El Nino watch. Which means an El Nino Is expected to develop this year. The idea of a El Nino during this upcoming Atlantic hurricanes season Is a big deal as far as implications. In the past I have talked about the warm waters in the Atlantic And how they can lead to lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. Normally this higher wind shear will reduce the number of tropical cyclones that develop in the main development region of the Atlantic ocean.
The 2023 hurricane season
Image credit International Research Institute.
As I've said many times before this chart is a model forecast for the areas that are being monitored For El Nino. When the sea surface temperature anomaly Is at least 1° centigrade Above average it's considered a moderate El Nino. When the temperature normally is 1.5°C above average it is considered a strong El Nino, an anomaly of 2.0°C or above Is considered a super El Nino.
But in spite of that during that the season thumbed it's nose at the el nino season. During the 2023 season, there were a total of 20 named systems, 7 of which became hurricanes With 3 of those becoming major hurricanes. Along with that the accumulated cyclone energy rating was 148.2 which is well above average. Ace is an index That takes the wind speed and the lifespan of the tropical cyclone and adds them together. For the season The ace index for each individual tropical cyclone is added together to come up with a total fortune season . An average season is considered 73-126. The season is considered extremely active When the ace is at 159.6 or higher. So we can see 2023 was very active.
Why was 2023 so active in spite of an El Nino?
Here's a look For the July 2023 SST anomalies from the IRI archive
The El Nino clearly stands out in the equatorial pacific. But we can also see that the Atlantic basin is also very warm. This overall temperature reduction in the contrast Between the pacific and the Atlantic resulted in lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin.
This idea Is going to be important When we move forward. For that reason 2023 will end up being a good analogue for 2026.
Here is an SST comparison for this year compared to the previous three super El Ninos
Here's a look at the model forecasted precipitation and temperature patterns for July through October. Credit for these go to Ben Noll and the Washington Post.
The 2026 hurricane season.
Looking at the above graphics from the IRI we can see that a strong El Nino is favored and that it looks too quickly develop. I've been talking about the relative strength of the developing El Nino in several of my last post on the ENSO.
When we look back up at the top of the post and look at the current SST anomalies. A couple of things stand out. First we can see that small spot in the equatorial Pacific south of Hawaii that is cooler than average. But everywhere else along the global equator SST anomalies are warmer than average. We can also see that the Atlantic basin overall is also above average similar to what it was in 2023. The Atlantic Basin is only going to get warmer as we get closer to and during summer 2026.
As the water in Nino region 3.4 continues the warm as we head towards summer. How much is it really going to stand out? It could just kind of blend into the rest of it. If so How much will the El Nino impact The Atlantic Basin during the heart of the hurricane season?
Temperature contrast is an important factor in trying to forecast for the weather, be it local or global. For that reason we can't only look at the ENSO Nino region 3.4 index value by itself, To try and figure out what's going to happen this hurricane season. For that reason We have to look at the relative Nino 3.4 index.
With all the warm water around the globe. We just can't take a look at the nino region 3.4 temperature anomaly and say we're in a strong or even super El Nino. As I said above contrast is very important.
Back in 2023-2024 the warm SSTS in the Atlantic main development region overrode the strong El Nino that was present. The question we have to ask...Will that same thing happened this year?
One thing is for sure, this year's el nino it's going to have to be much stronger than past super El Nino's if it wants to claim that title; the strength for this year will have to be 2.5 °C to over 3.0 °C. This is the only way a super El Nino can make its presence known on the global pattern. It remains to be seen if the El Nino can become that strong.
Because of the reasons I have shown I think This coming hurricane season is going to be at least average. With a strong likelihood of the season becoming above average as far as named system numbers go! But If this isn't taken in to consideration, some people and outlets could get a big surprise during this upcoming hurricane season.
This is all just something to think about.
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