When we can plant is complicated!

 This spring like all springs is unpredictable when it comes to planting. We’ve had several cold snaps and even a couple of false spring signals.

This map of the United States shows the most common date range you can expect to see temperatures dip to 32°F or below for the last time. 

This map is based on the 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the median date of the last spring freeze is the average date on which freezing temperatures (32°F or below) occur for the last time in a given year across a region.

Here is one for the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic

While these maps show the average timeframe of the last spring freeze, each calendar year’s actual conditions may widely vary based on weather patterns.

How Northeast topography Influences Frost Dates

 The Northeast’s climate is shaped by its humid continental base, with coastal, mountain, and urban influences creating distinct microclimates across the region.

In the Spring coastal areas warm faster, while inland and mountain valleys remain cold longer. the rolling hills of New Hampshire and Vermont might see their last frosts around mid-May, whereas places like Long Island or parts of Connecticut could be welcoming warmer weather a bit earlier—perhaps as early as late April. It’s almost like the landscape is whispering secrets about when it’s safe to plant.

 Springtime Microclimates in the Northeast

 The Northeastern region’s vast differences in geography and layout shaped by the region’s mix of humid continental and humid subtropical climates, as well as the moderating influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the Great Lakes, and the Appalachian Mountains makes for several unique microclimates. Along the New England coast and parts of New Jersey, the Atlantic Ocean moderates’ temperatures, keeping them milder in winter and cooler in summer. In spring, this means earlier snowmelt and faster warming compared to inland areas. Coastal sites can experience marine layer fog and wet, unstable air masses that delay full warming until mid-to-late April. The Appalachian Mountains act like a natural barrier, often sheltering valleys from harsh winds that might otherwise push in cold air. Catskills, Adirondacks, and western New York, where spring warming is slower and snowmelt is less rapid. This means areas at higher altitudes or nestled between mountain ranges can experience later frost dates compared to coastal regions. The Great Lakes, especially Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, release stored winter heat in spring, creating lake-effect warming. This can cause springtime temperature spikes in nearby upstate New York and southern Ontario, sometimes leading to unseasonably warm days even in March. Conversely, cold air outbreaks from Canada can be intensified by the lakes’ cold water, producing sudden cold snaps. The Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic have large cities like New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston retain heat longer in spring due to built-up surfaces and reduced albedo (Urban Heat Island Effect). This can cause localized warming in urban cores, sometimes leading to earlier green-up and faster snowmelt in city parks and streets compared to surrounding rural areas.

In summary, the regional average last frost date in the northeastern United States is not just an interesting fact; it’s crucial for anyone involved in agriculture or gardening. By understanding how factors like topography influence these dates, we can better prepare and plan for a successful growing season—much like knowing the tides before setting sail into uncharted waters.

 Spring frost patterns may seem like an unpredictable force of nature, but by understanding the factors behind them, we can better prepare and adapt. Whether you’re a seasoned farmer or just someone who enjoys planting flowers in spring, knowing when those early frosts might strike can make all the difference.

 Here is the link to an interactive map of the median last spring freeze date for 1991–2020 at Climate.gov The map will show the specific median date for your location, which is typically in late April to early May depending on elevation and microclimate.

Well, that’s it, take care of your plants.

Still a cool Tuesday!

 

Current Setup

 The last couple of days have been downright cold for this time of year. Last night saw most of the Northeast dealing with freeze watches and warnings.

But many of y’all know it could be worse as a winter storm is set to strike the California mountains with up to two feet of snow this week

Surface Chart, Radar and Satellite.

We have high pressure overhead that is sliding east, ahead of a frontal system centered over the Upper Midwest. Radar shows other than lake enhanced rain/snow showers associated with a weak trough up over Central New York State, most of which isn't reaching the ground, the region is dry. As the snow/rain tries to move south and east it is going to dry up.

Today is going to warm a bit ahead of that approaching warm front as it moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night may trigger a few showers this evening into Tuesday night, but for the most part Tuesday looks dry.

Rest of this week

Come Wednesday, we will see some sun developing during the afternoon after a few left-over spotty showers earlier in the day. Temperatures will be much warmer by Wednesday.  Thursday will see high pressure build back into the region. Thursday night and Friday we’re going to be setting between two areas of low pressure, one will be up near the Gulf of Maine, while the other is going to be over the Midwest into the Central Great Lakes. Friday will see a backdoor cold front drop south and west out of New England, that will run into milder air trying to push into the region due to the location of that low pressure near the Great Lakes. This will lead to a stationary front that will set up over New York State and Pennsylvania. North and east of the boundary, temperatures are going to be much cooler than they will be south and west of the boundary.  We can expect to be dealing with a few scattered showers. Thursday and Friday will see temperatures become very seasonal.

Friday night and Saturday, the low pressure with a cold front to the west is going to approach and move through. With this we will see widespread showers move across the region. There could be some snow/mix across the higher elevations.  The low pressure with the cold front will be pushing to the south and east by Sunday. Temperatures will warm as the region see a lot of sun develop. Monday will see high pressure build into the region. But in spite of the sun temperatures will be seasonally cool. On Tuesday a stronger area of low pressure will move in, bringing widespread rain and higher elevation mix/snow showers back into the region. This rain could be very heavy at times.  General rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches could lead to some flooding concerns.  

That's it for today.

This cool and unsettled pattern will continue

 A cool and unsettled weather pattern will continue through next week, with the threat of rain showers below average temperatures.

Surface chart and radar

We can see the cold front passing through the region with a few scattered showers and higher elevation snow showers along with some lake enhanced snow falling downwind of the Great Lakes. Head of the front winds will be generally out of the southwest 5-15 mph, behind the front winds will be out of the northwest at around 5 to 20 with gusts to 30 MPH.  Our temperatures will be running below average across the region. The cold front will finish swinging through tonight, and a trough will hang around keeping things very cool and a bit unsettled.  If you have any outdoor plants, make sure you protect them.

Tomorrow we will have high pressure setting overhead, producing scattered clouds that will thicken up during the day.  Winds will be light and variable becoming a bit gustier during the day. There will be sprinkles and scattered light rain showers in the afternoon lasting during the evening and overnight as a warm front approaches and moves through. Temperatures will become a bit warmer later in the day.

The pattern will be active and rather unsettled as a series of cold fronts move across the region.

 For Wednesday we will see an area of low pressure with a cold front approach and produce scattered showers.  Temperatures will remain seasonally chilly. Then for Thursday high pressure will again move in overhead, with temperatures near seasonal. Friday will see a developing low pressure frontal system approach.  We could see a few rain showers later in the day into Friday night along a warm front. The warm front will continue to move through the region into Saturday. Then we will see the low pressure move through with a cold front for late Saturday through Sunday. This will bring scattered showers across the region. Temperatures will cool off for Monday as high pressure move back in.

Quick look at the coming week and long range

 Well it briefly felt like summer.But that's over at least for now.

Current conditions

Much colder air came screaming in behind the cold front That is now sitting off the Middle Atlantic Coast up across eastern New England.

Image courtesy tropical tidbits

The Great Lakes and Eastern US is setting under a very deep trough. Making for temperatures that are well below average for this time of year. 

Image courtesy of Penn state

The cold front brought rain Showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday and Saturday night. It also brought snow showers across northern Pennsylvania New York state into northern and central new England The higher elevations picked up An inch or two of a wet slushy snow. Those strong winds we had for Saturday Are now much weaker. But those cold temperatures are a shock to the system. Looking back up again at the surface chart. We can see there's a secondary cold front that it's gonna drop through tonight into tomorrow. This is going to bring more rain showers and higher elevation snow showers across the region it is also going to keep us very cool for tomorrow. Tuesday we'll see temperatures become warmer but high pressure means it's still going to be below average for this time of year. For Wednesday into Thursday temperatures are going to become seasonal.  Wednesday we're going to dealing with a weak area of low pressure that could bring a few scattered rain showers to the region. Then for Thursday we are going to have high pressure once again setting up over the region. Thursday looks to be generally dry across the region. This high pressure is going to stay with us through Friday, Friday we'll see our temperatures become average to slightly above average. Friday night and Saturday we are going to see a warm front lifting into the region. Allowing temperatures to get a little warmer. But it also mean a return of some rain showers and possibly thunderstorms. For Sunday we're going to be dealing with another stationary front that will keep it unsettled. 

The long range

When we talk about the long range It looks like the same general weather pattern we had during the winter is going to stick around. Over the last couple of months I've been talking about this So I hope it isn't a big surprise. Looking at the models below courtesy of tropical tidbits. We can see that the general ridging will stay out over the West while general troughing stays over the Eastern half of the United States. This trough is going to keep us overall a bit cool to maybe downright cold at times. This doesn't mean there won't be days that are warm and pleasant. But on average the rest of April and May is looking to be overall cool. I also think June is going to see the same general ridge trough pattern across the United States. So June could also be relatively cool compared to average.

Well that's it have a great rest of your Sunday .

It's been very warm!

Current Surface chart, radar and satellite.

The surface chart shows that stalled frontal boundary sitting across northern New York State and over New England. This southern flow Is pushing all that southern heat and moisture northward. We have low pressure right in the front of boundary once again. On the chart we can see the low pressure over the Great Lakes. Accompanying that low pressure are rain showers and thunderstorms. This is all going to advance eastward. As the thunderstorms move into this warm humid air mass some of them will become strong to severe. Because the frontal boundary has pushed back north the severe threat has also moved north with it.

Today's convective outlook!

The storm prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe weather across a large part of New York State and into southern Vermont. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms around the slight area and it extends into Southern New Hampshire and across western Pennsylvania. The best timeframe for the severe storms looks to be mid afternoon to around midnight. The risk today will be strong damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. We're going to have to worry about some frequent lightning. Along with the small chance for a few tornadoes.

So make sure you stay weather aware and be prepared to take action if severe weather approaches your area.

The stationary boundary is going to move to the south tomorrow as a backdoor cold front, Temperatures north of the boundary are going to cool off a little. Reducing the severe threat. But there could be a few thunderstorms The greatest chance for seeing  these non severe storms looks to be across southern New England. Not everyone will see the showers and storms But if you do they could stick around a little bit.  Saturday we're going to have a trough Stick around the region as the stationary front brakes down. For the most part Saturday shouldn't be too bad with the vast majority of us seen dry conditions but there will still be a chance for a few isolated showers.

Looking at the surface chart we can see there is a strong cold front out to our west. This cold front will be approaching Western parts of our region Saturday night Bringing a chance for rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. As the front continues to push through the region on Sunday we are going to see widespread rain and some thunderstorms move south to east across the region. The front should be pushing through Eastern New England and the Northern Middle Atlantic during the afternoon.

There will be a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of this cold front For Saturday into Sunday.

Day 3 convective outlook

Behind the front We are going to see the below average temperatures Move into the region. There was likely going to be snow showers across northern Pennsylvania, New York State into northern and central New England on Monday. This is going to be especially true for those higher elevations. Tuesday is going to remain quite chilly as high pressure sets up overhead, for the most part Tuesday is looking to be dry. And on Wednesday we're going to see the high pressure shift to the east. As an area of low pressure moves to our north over eastern Canada. We are going to see a warm front accompany this low pressure. that will allow our temperatures to warm a bit becoming slightly below average to average for this time of year. With the front we will see scattered rain showers and a chance for a few snow showers across northern New York State and northern New England. For Thursday we are going to watch the low pressure exit the region, as high pressure moves back in overhead. 

It has been hot ... now what?

Over the last few days many parts of our region have seen near record to record breaking High temperatures. Today is going to be no exception! But a pattern change back to cooler conditions is on our doorstep.

In my daily post I've been talking about the return to cold Temperatures. I've also been talking about the same thing in my post on the developing El Nino. As well as in my spring outlook.

The spring 2026 outlook

El Nino

For quite some time, I've been talking on how this developing El Nino is going to do it very quickly. And that is certainly happening.

Madden Julian oscillation

The MJO is moving from phase 7 into phase 8

The last couple of post on this El Nino, have covered all this in detail. So I won't go back into it again.  But y 'all can go back and read those post if you need to

But all of this is going to end all this heat we've been experiencing. As we return to a pattern that allows for below average temperatures to once again set up across  the region. This very cool pattern will stick around for a few weeks. That doesn't mean we're not going to have a few warm days here and there but by and large the temperature will be cool. I've been talking a lot about this pattern over the last 6-8 weeks. So none of this should be a big surprise for those of y'all who have been following my post. This is reflected in the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. But I think the CPC is showing things being a bit warmer than I believe they're going to be.

That's it for today. I don't think I'm going to be posting tomorrow.

Feels like summer but don't get used to it

 The surface chart and radar

The trailing end of yesterday's system weakened overnight into this morning as it came over the Great Lakes; all thats left is scattered rain showers up over the Adirondacks and across northern New England. On the surface chart we can see that semi stationary frontal boundary sitting over New York State and New England.

South  of the boundary temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. While north of the boundary there in the 50s and 60s. With the southern flow we are experiencing higher dew point. The setup does support thunderstorm development

We still have several areas of low pressure moving along this frontal boundary. accompanying this area of low pressure We have showers and thunderstorms to our west. These will come through later this afternoon and this evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. With the greatest danger being damaging winds and moderate to large hail. But there will also be the danger of heavy downpours, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. With the heavy rains, localized flooding could be an issue.

Today's Storm protection center's convective outlook

The SPC has a Moderate Risk for severe weather across the southern tier of New York State into northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey the Moderate Risk also extends across southern New England. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms across Northwest Pennsylvania into Southwest New York State. The most likely time for severe storms to develop and move through will be late afternoon into around Midnight.

We're still going to be dealing with this semi stationary front tomorrow. we're also going to be dealing with this warm and humid air mass. This will provide showers and thunderstorms. Again some of these thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening could be strong too severe.

Tomorrow's convective outlook

Looking at the chart We can see the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the large part of New York State With a Moderate Risk that extends around it into New England and northern and western Pennsylvania. Like today the main risk will be damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. Frequent lightning will also be a concern. There will be enough wind shear that rotating updrafts are possible. So there is also going to be a tornado risk but the risk is low.

Friday will see the stationary boundary start to move south as a cold front. North of the boundary temperatures will cool down. We will also be watching a stronger cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures will still be  unseasonably warm south of the front. Saturday we're going to have a trough overhead, for the most part the day should be dry. But I can't rule out a few isolated showers. We could see more in the way of widespread showers and some thunderstorms out ahead of that approaching cold front Saturday evening/night.

Sunday we're going to watch a very strong cold front approach and move through. with showers and thunderstorms. We'll be under the trough on Monday with very cold temperatures for this time of year. We're likely going to see as 30-40+°F temperature drop, from the super warm temperatures we've been seeing As well below average temperatures take hold. Tuesday we'll see high pressure sitting overhead keeping things a little chilly. We will watch another area of low pressure approach us on Wednesday. 

Monday into Tuesday there is going to be a decent chance for snow showers for parts of northern Pennsylvania New York State into northern and central New England. There could also be some lake enhanced or even lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes

Euro and GFS images compliments of pivotal weather

My latest post on El Nino

Have a nice day

Feels like summer

 Surface chart and radar

Today is much warmer than it was yesterday. But the warmth is going to trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Looking at the surface chart we can see that stationary frontal boundary Sitting over Northern New York State into New England. this boundary Is it gonna rain semi stationary as it meanders over the region.  We have several disturbances Moving along this frontal boundary . The first is over the Ohio Valley and is advancing east. This is going to set off scatter rain showers and thunderstorms. Unlike the other warm ups we've seen. This one is going to be accompanied by atmospheric moisture and we're going to feel those higher dew points. Helping all of this will be high pressure sitting off the Southeast Coast.

Ahead of the cold front we are going to have a prefrontal boundary move across the region. With the warm unstable air and higher dew points the prefrontal will set off some thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. As I said some of these will be strong too severe. Yesterday I said the storm prediction center (SPC) would likely upgrade and expand the severe threat over the region and they have indeed done so.

The storm protection centers Connective outlook for today and tomorrow

Today

Look at the day 1 chart We can see there is a Slight Risk for severe weather over Eastern New York State into Western and Central New England. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over Western New York State all of Pennsylvania down into Maryland, Delaware and Northern New Jersey. The Marginal Risk also extends across the rest of Southern  New England.

The main risk is going to be isolated strong damaging winds,, moderate to large hai. There will also be heavy downpours, frequent lightning. There is a low risk for some tornadoes.

Any Sun we see today will increase the risk for severe storms.

The clouds, higher dewpoints and the southern flow, will keep tonight very warm. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms during the overnight. But these should be more garden variety and non severe

Tomorrow

 Wednesday is gonna be even warmer than today is that warm southern flow  drags in more moisture from the Gulf. these very warm temperatures and high dew points are going to be with us through Thursday.  Don't be surprised if you're dealing with some fog Wednesday morning.

Tomorrow that boundary up over northern New York State is  going to drop south a bit.As our next disturbance moves across the boundary the severe threat will be a little further south than it is today. The SPC has a Marginal Risk across southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over Southwest Pennsylvania and Southern Pennsylvania. Again the main risk will be the chance for isolated damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. There will also be the risk for frequent lightning and a chance for some tornadoes especially across western parts of Pennsylvania.

Thursday is going to be basically a rinse and repeat; as that frontal boundary continues to meander around. For Friday a slightly stronger cold front will approach and drop through with a disturbance riding along the boundary. Again this will bring the chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Saturday we are going to see a trough hanging around the region that's going to keep things rather unsettled. Then on Sunday a much stronger cold front is going to drop across the region. With the front we are going to see rain and some thunderstorms. Behind this front we're going  to see the end to all these warm temperatures, as much colder than average air moves back in over the region. Along with the cold we will have to reintroduce the risk for some snow. This will be especially true across New York State and Northern into Central New England especially in those higher elevations.