This post will tie into with Friday’s post.
How April worked out?
Before we look at May and beyond. Let’s take a look at how
April’s temperature and precipitation ended up
These are showing the individual stations climate ranking
for the last 134 years
Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM)
In spite of April having more cool days than warm one. Those
super warm days during the month skewed the months temperature, to average
above average as far as general temperature on average across a large part of
our region.
April Precipitation rank
Images curtesy of Iowa Environment Mesonet (IEM)
We can clearly see the predominate storm track that led to the severe weather in the Plains and Great Lakes. This resulted in a lot of moisture be pulled out of the Gulf and stream it northward into the Upper Midwest and the areas around the Great Lakes.
We can also see the influence of the Bermuda High, that has resulted in a lot of dry conditions in the Southwest U.S. that has extended into the Northern Middle Atlantic and Southern New England.
What about May?
I’ve been talking about how this year’s El Nino and the
other teleconnections could allow for the Northeast to see a generally cooler
than average Spring.
April did in fact see more cooler than average days during
April. But the Amount of heat we saw on the days that were milder did end up
making the month warmer than average overall.
During this upcoming Summer. I think there is going to be a
divide between the northern part of the region and the southern part of the
region.
I used to do maps that showed my thoughts. But they seemed to
cause problems with some not knowing where they generally were on the map. But
I will try it again, below shows the temperature outlooks each month from June
through August.
June
The entire region could end up a bit chilly overall based by
typical June temperatures
July
For July those warmer temperatures to the West and South
will try and push into our region. I think the end result will see A
north-south split in temperatures similar to what I’m thinking for May.
August
I still think the overall pattern we’ve been seeing is still
going to be with us during August. So the August temperature profile could look
similar to what we’re going to see in July.
Severe weather
As far as severe weather during June and July with the
temperature contrast that looks to be present, we could see quite a bit of
severe weather, bringing the chance for around average to above-average number
of tornadoes. This will be especially true for New York State, Pennsylvania,
into the Middle Atlantic.
Have a great rest of your Sunday.
Thank you!
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