Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235

 

SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   205 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Connecticut
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and track eastward
   across the watch area through the afternoon and evening.  Hot and
   unstable conditions will lead to conditions supportive of damaging
   wind gusts in the strongest storms.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
   Wilmington DE to 25 miles southeast of Groton CT. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27030.

   ...Hart

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234

 

SAW4 
   WW 234 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 201640Z - 210000Z
   AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   95WSW MRB/MARTINSBURG WV/ - 45E CXY/HARRISBURG PA/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /23E EKN - 26SSW ETX/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

   LAT...LON 39667961 41017599 39417599 38077961

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU4.

Watch 234 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 234

VALID 201925Z - 202040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE EKN
TO 40 W MRB TO 30 S AOO TO 15 W UNV.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 805

..CHALMERS..05/20/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DCC001-202040-

DC 
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 
$$


MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-202040-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL	     BALTIMORE		 CARROLL	     
CECIL		     FREDERICK		 HARFORD	     
HOWARD		     MONTGOMERY 	 PRINCE GEORGES      
WASHINGTON	     


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY	     
$$


PAC001-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-097-099-107-109-
133-202040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS		     COLUMBIA		 CUMBERLAND	     
DAUPHIN 	     FRANKLIN		 FULTON 	     
HUNTINGDON	     JUNIATA		 LANCASTER	     
LEBANON 	     MIFFLIN		 NORTHUMBERLAND      
PERRY		     SCHUYLKILL 	 SNYDER 	     
YORK		     
$$


VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187-
510-600-610-660-683-685-840-202040-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON	     CLARKE		 CULPEPER	     
FAIRFAX 	     FAUQUIER		 FREDERICK	     
GREENE		     LOUDOUN		 MADISON	     
PAGE		     PRINCE WILLIAM	 RAPPAHANNOCK	     
ROCKINGHAM	     SHENANDOAH 	 WARREN 	     




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA	     FAIRFAX		 FALLS CHURCH	     
HARRISONBURG	     MANASSAS		 MANASSAS PARK	     
WINCHESTER	     
$$


WVC003-023-027-031-037-065-071-202040-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY	     GRANT		 HAMPSHIRE	     
HARDY		     JEFFERSON		 MORGAN 	     
PENDLETON	     
$$


ANZ530-531-532-535-538-539-202040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD 

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD 

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD 

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD 

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR 

CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Relief is upon us!

 It been hot over the last couple of days, but that is about to change

Surface Chart and Radar

It been hot over the last couple of days, but that is about to change

The surface chart and radar show the front advancing into the western part of the region with scattered rain showers associated with a trough ahead of it.

Temperatures are very warm to hot ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. Behind the front temperatures are running 20° F to near 40° F cooler than they are ahead of the front.  

As the front continues to advance, showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. 

Image curtesy of SPC

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather

The biggest threat is going to be the possibility of damaging wind gust and moderate to perhaps large hail, with the higher humidity, heavy downpours and frequent vivid lightning will be possible. the risk for tornadoes is very low, but it's no zero. 

Tomorrow the cold front is going to slow even more and slowly sink through the Northern Middle Atlantic, with rain moving along it. Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey will be dealing with the rain the longest.  Tomorrow into Friday, high pressure will build in providing mainly dry conditions and much more sun.

We’re going to see a trough up over the Great Lakes move toward and into the Gulf of Maine. At the same time a warm front will push north and east, but it won’t get too far. This will set up a frontal boundary that will lead to unsettled conditions for the holiday weekend, with rain showers later Friday through the weekend into Monday.  Saturday and Sunday will be the wettest of the holiday weekend. But rain showers will linger into Monday.

 

That’s it…. No post for the next few days. 

Still Hot, but cooler weather is around the corner!

Today we’re all dealing with summer like heat along with some humidity.  Most of us will approach or set new record high temperatures. With the heat and humidity, it's going to feel like mid-summer.

 Look at the current surface chart and radar. 

We can see the warm front has pushed into Canada and northern Maine. The southern flow is driving in plenty of heat with most of y’all seeing temperatures in the upper 80’s into the upper 90’s. The higher dew points will make it feel warmer than that.  We can also see that strong cold front out west that is approaching our region. As this gets closer and starts to run into all this heat, out ahead of it we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop, some of these will be strong to severe. Here is a look at today’s convective outlook for today.

Image curtesy of NWS/NOAA 

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

This afternoon severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over northwest Pennsylvania, western and northern New York State. The biggest threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. But with the humidity, frequent lightning and heavy downpours are also going to be a concern. The tornado risk is low, but a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible. The severe threat is going to extend into tonight as these move west to east. Way out ahead of the front there is a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon – a couple of these could be strong to severe.

We do have a few shortwave troughs that could be the focus for a few thunderstorms, this will be especially true for eastern Pennsylvania into Maryland Delaware New Jersey as well as New York City and Long Island. 

Wednesday 

As the cold front approaches, the Hudson Valley and eastern Pennsylvania, a few showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be late morning and into the early afternoon. The as the front is dropping south and east into the lower Hudson Valley, southern New England, southwest Pennsylvania and the northern Middle Atlantic later Wednesday afternoon into the evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to flare up again with the potential of damaging wind gusts and large hail. 

End of the week and through the weekend.

 Behind the cold front, temperatures will turn noticeably cooler with the front pushing away Thursday is looking to be a mostly dry day with a mix of clouds and sun. The High pressure will continue into Friday. But on Friday we will be watching a frontal boundary to the south, try and push north, bringing a chance for rain showers into Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania. We also going to have a Canadian High Pressure centered up over the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure in the Gulf of Maine.  Between the high pressure and the slowly advancing frontal boundary, it’s going to keep us very cool and unsettled through the Memorial Day Weekend. For Memorial Day Monday, the boundary should be pushing north and west most of the region could see lingering showers, but up over New England scattered rain showers are likely. 

That’s it 

The heat is on, with hazy, hot, and humid conditions

 

Look at the current surface chart and radar.

We’ve had a hard time finding warmth this Spring. But Temperatures are going surge into the 80s and 90s at least for a couple of days.

Looking at the surface chart we can see that backdoor cold front over New York State and southern New England.  Radar is showing a few rain showers up over areas near the Canadian Border into Maine. We can also see rain and thunderstorms to our west, associated with that strong cold front moving into the Midwest. 

We’re going to see the southeast ridge advance north. This is going to push that stationary front back north as a warm front.

The Storm Prediction Center has two areas highlighted as Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorm with the risk strong damaging wind gusts. The first is northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State and areas east of Lake Ontario. The second is across central Pennsylvania.

The cold front is going to continue to approach tomorrow, that southwest flow is going to ensure the heat and humidity is in full swing. As the heat pushes even warmer.  The region will see the heat surge from the mid 80’s into the upper 90’s across the region.

Images curtesy of Pivotal Weather 

As the front pushes into the heat and higher dewpoints, we’re going to see a higher risk for severe weather across part of the region. The SPC has a Slight Risk across northern Vermont and down across northern, central and western New York State. The Marginal Risk stretches from northwest Maine to northern Pennsylvania. The severe threat will be greatest beginning Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. The biggest risk from these scattered severe thunderstorms will be strong damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. But there is also the risk for a few isolated tornadoes.

Wednesday will see the cold front continue to push through allowing the scattered showers and thunderstorms to advance with it.  The severe risk will move over New England into southeast New York State, New Jersey as well as southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. The SPC has a Marginal Risk over these areas, but there is a chance they could upgrade the risk.

 

 

Behind the cold front a much cooler air mass will move into the region. Temperatures will be dropping west to east on Wednesday. This will continue for Thursday and the Weekend. As temperatures return to seasonal levels. But it won’t get cool enough to cultivate frosts and freezes in the Middle Atlantic region. 

Summer like, with hot and humid conditions developing.

Quick look at the week ahead

Y’all who like hot and humid weather are going to be happy, everyone else not so much!

 We’re going to see a hot and humid pattern develop through the first half of this week.  Then a cold front is going to cool us back off.

 Plains and the Midwest

The central US into the Midwest are going to be dealing with several rounds of severe weather today into Monday. This is likely to be a large and dangerous severe weather outbreak. The storms are going to be capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Centers Convective Outlooks for today and Tomorrow.  There is a good chance the SPC ends up issuing a high-risk level later today or tomorrow.

TODAY in the Northeast

Surface chart and radar

We have a back-door cold front pushing south out of Canada, this could bring a few rain showers into parts of northern New England into northern New York State later this afternoon and evening. But any showers will be short-lived. We could also see A few showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon across western New York State into northwestern Pennsylvania. Most of the region should end up warm and mostly dry with only a slight chance for rouge showers or perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder, due to the trough hanging around overhead. Today will also be breezy.  

 We’re going to have a warm front approach the region tonight with scattered clouds. The winds are going to start coming out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

 TOMORROW 

 We’re still going to be under the influence of the trough. This will produce scattered clouds and isolated rain showers.  The warm front is going to continue to approach and move through the region with increasing clouds and scattered isolated thunderstorms.  Winds will be coming in from the southeast at 5 to 20 mph.  With the southern flow temperatures are going to become warmer than today.

 TOMORROW NIGHT

We’re going to be watching a cold front cuts approach from the west. As this moves east the severe thunderstorm threat is going to shift into our region and much of the eastern United States. Ahead of the front winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 20 mph. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm ahead of the approaching cold front.

Tuesday and Wednesday are going to see near to or record high temperatures. Humidity is also going to be quite high.

TUESDAY

 The cold front will getting close to western parts of the region with increasing clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in afternoon into the evening.

The storm dynamics should be lessening as the front moves in. But some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. As the front moves into the heat and humidity. Here’s a look at the SPC outlook for Tuesday.

The main risk from these storms will be strong damaging winds, heavy downpours, large hail, and frequent lightning. A couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

 WEDNESDAY

The cold front will continue to advance across the region. Again, some of these storms will be strong to severe, with the risk of high winds, large hail and sudden heavy downpours. With all the humidity frequent lightning is also going to be an issue.  Tornadoes can’t be completely ruled out. Our high temperatures ahead of the front will be in the mid 80’s into the mid to upper 90’s.

.

On Thursday the cold front will be moving into New England with showers and thunderstorms in the morning.  During the day, skies are going to be clearing west to east. The cold front will be moving away from New England on Friday. There will be the risk for leftover showers, but these should be fairly isolated.

 We going to have high pressure move in behind the front, this is going to cool us back off to around seasonal temperatures for the end of the week and through the weekend.  Saturday is looking to be dry. But we will be watching an area of low-pressure approach on Sunday. This could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms

 

Hurricane season is about to start in the Atlantic.

 

Tropical Write UP

The Atlantic Hurricane season is quickly approaching and is just a little more than two weeks away. With the Atlantic Season officially beginning on June 1st. But yesterday marked the release of the first official tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center. They will be issuing a 2-day outlook. and a 7-day outlook everyday through the season.

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

We are watching a few tropical waves out over the Atlantic as well as some coming off the West Coast of Africa.  The lead tropical Wave has just entered the Caribbean. On average the Atlantic Basin sees Between 50 and 70 tropical waves a season. Some of these will turn into named systems and some won’t. 

Image curtesy of NOAA

Here’s a chart I made that shows how the number of named systems averages out per month, based on the 30-year average.

The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR), Caribbean and Gulf of America…Yes, I know it used to be the Gulf of Mexico, but the NHC is calling it the Gulf of America, So I’m calling it the Gulf of America, that way, no confusion in what I’m talking about. 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and much of the Caribbean are running on average 80° F-82° F, while in the far western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf they are running 82° F - 84° F on average. While it’s very rare to get named systems this time of year, these waters are warm enough to support tropical development, if other conditions line up perfectly. 

Image curtesy of NOAA

But sometimes May can see something develop. So, we always have to keep an eye on things, at this time in the preseason into June, this is where we typically watch for storms that could develop.

Here is a look at the NHC 7-day outlook for today, for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America; it’s showing there are no immediate concerns in the Atlantic Basin.

 

 

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

I’ve been talking about El Nino and how it might impact our Summer; in several post, including y 2026 Hurricane Outlook, which you can find here. If you’ve seen them then you know what El Nino could do. But there are mixed signals involving Atlantic water temperatures that are complicating the setup a bit. At this point in the year, we have above-average warm water temperatures in the Gulf, Caribbean, and western Atlantic. At the same time, we have below-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. It remains to be seen how this will impact the early hurricane season as we move forward.

That’s it for today, have a great weekend!

The showers linger into today.

 Here’s a look at the surface chart and radar image.

 The cold front along with the area of low pressure that was moving along it, are now up over New England and off the coast. The strong upper-level feature is still hanging around. This will keep today a little unsettled.

But the day will Slowly improve as the upper-level feature continues to drift south and east, allowing the weather to turn nicer west to east! Eastern New York state into New England will be dealing with mostly overcast skies for much of the day, but later in the day, some of the clouds should give way allowing for a few breaks of sun here and there. Some lingering sprinkles or very light showers are possible but should be very limited.

For the Weekend

With the upper level low to the east, the weekend isn’t looking too bad overall, as high pressure will end up settling over New England as we head into the weekend. We are going to see a building large ridge in the Southeast US, as this works in our direction, there will be much warmer conditions for both Saturday and Sunday.

On I/R satellite, we can see all of those clear skies just to our west. All of this will be influencing our weather over the weekend.  Saturday will start out dry. But a weak frontal system will be approaching. As the high pressure starts to push away, we will be dealing with a west to southwest flow. The front looks to move through fairly quickly. So, other than isolated to spotty rain showers Saturday and Sunday shouldn’t be too bad.   As the front gets closer during Saturday afternoon. very isolated showers will move into western New York State into western Pennsylvania.  This will slowly move across New York State and Pennsylvania late in the day, then move into the Middle Atlantic and New England Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Many people might not see any rain over the weekend, due to its spotty nature.  Both Saturday and Sunday will be breezy, warm conditions.

We should stay mainly dry into Monday with continued warmer temperatures; Then starting Monday night, Tuesday into Wednesday night we will be watching a cold front approach and move through. Temperatures ahead of the front will become downright hot, with higher amounts of humidity making it first appearance this season. With the heat and humidity, we will have rain and thunderstorms, some of these storms will be strong to severe. With the main danger being damaging winds and hail. But heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also be a concern. The tornado risk is looking low, but as aways it won’t be zero.   Behind the front some cooling will return for later next week.

Over the next few days, we’re not going to see a lot of rain

Looking at the US Drought Monitor released yesterday; we can see a large part of New England into the Mid-Atlantic remains in need of rainfall. 

 

Rainfall patterns across our region were very uneven, Across the northern and western areas saw much more rain than the rest of the region, with much of the rain concentrated across Western New York, Northwestern Pennsylvania, and much of Maine. The map shows Moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought, along with abnormal dryness (D0) were improved in in these areas. On the contrary, rainfall totals were much less across southern portions of the region, on the map Severe (D2) drought was expanded in northern Massachusetts, Delaware, and southern portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, while moderate (D1) drought was expanded in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and southern Pennsylvania this week.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on May 14 showed 21% of the Northeast in severe drought, 21% in moderate drought, and 18% as abnormally dry compared to 19%, 23%, and 21%, respectively, last week.

With the lack of rain, these drought conditions are likely to worsen and expand

Pattern turns active again!

 

I hope all y’all got outside to enjoy the nice day yesterday, because the next few days are going to be unsettled and wet.

We have a warm front lifting north through the region, as an area of low pressure slides in from the west

It will be seasonally cool and a bit breezy.

As the cold front slowly pushes into the region, we will see widespread rain showers and will feature of couple line of thunderstorms, some of these storms will be strong to severe This will be especially true across western Maryland, western and central Pennsylvania along with western and central New York State. The most likely time for these storms looks to from midafternoon through late evening.

The main hazard will be localized damaging wind gusts. Wind gust of upwards of 60-70 mph will be possible in some of these storms. Moderate to heavy rainfall and pea to marble-sized hail will also be possible.

Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlook for today. 

As the cold front continues to push east this evening, with rounds of showers, brief moderate to heavy rain, and a few thunderstorms. By this time later in the evening into Wednesday overnight storms are not expected to be severe, but isolated strong thunderstorms are still going to be possible.

For Thursday and Friday, as our low pressure basically sits and spins along with the slow moving cold front shifts east toward New England, rain will move into eastern New York State, middle Atlantic and New England, this will be especially true for the mid and southern Hudson Valley, southern New England into the northeastern Middle Atlantic. For New England into New Jersey Thursday will be quite wet with on-and-off rounds of rain throughout the day, rain will be moderate to heavy at times, rain will continue into Thursday night.

 

All of this is going to slowly start to push away Friday morning. High pressure will build in and will be sitting overhead Friday night into Saturday, generally this will provide dry weather with plenty of sun, allowing us to start to warm up. Sunday will be even warmer, but as the high starts to shift east, a trough will be overhead providing the chance for some isolated rain showers.

The warming trend will continue into the first part of next week with a warm front moving through on Monday and Tuesday allowing temperatures to become well above average, along with the humidity creeping in as well along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Monday should be mostly dry, but a few rain showers will be possible. Tuesday is going to be even hotter.  A cold front will be slowly approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday some of the thunderstorms could be strong too severe as a cold front pushing into the region.

 

We have to get rid of this persistent trough

 We have to get rid of this persistent trough

The secondary cold front that came through later yesterday and last night, cleared the clouds out, allowing for great radiational cooling conditions leading to a very cold night, that provided frost and freeze for many of us.

Today will be the best day of this work week, as high pressure continues to work down out of Canada. Looking at the surface chart, radar and satellite. We can see not much is going on overhead, high pressure is providing plenty of sunshine, with only a few clouds leaving the region rain free.  Temperatures today will be seasonally cool but comfortable.  But this won’t last.

Image curtesy of Tropical Tidbits

On Satellite we can see a strong shortwave up over the Upper Great Lakes. It also shows a lot of moisture over the Southeast. This shortwave will approach and move through Tuesday night and on Wednesday

A warm front will lift through Tuesday night into Wednesday, there could be some rain showers accompanying the front.  The upper-level low setup will keep us a bit unsettled.

Then the cold front will come through later Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Bringing more rain showers and thunderstorms. General rainfall amounts over the next few days, looks to be 0.50 to 1.0 inches.  Tomorrow we’re going to see an area of low pressure develop along the frontal boundary. We’re going to have high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes this is going to help suppress the low pressure to the south and west.

This will end up being cut off from the flow and hang out over Pennsylvania. This will be hanging around for Thursday, producing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some of those in southern New England into the Middle Atlantic could see with embedded moderate downpours at times.

The cutoff low will slowly start to pull away Thursday night and Friday providing isolated to scattered rain showers. On Friday the showers should be more in the way of lingering and spottier. Those with the best chance of see more in the way of steadier rain, will be closer to the coast and across southern parts of the Maine into Southern New England. After Friday we’ll see temperatures start to climb.

The first part of the weekend starts to be dry. But we will be watching a weakening cold front approach accompanying a little trough.  This will be moving across the region for later Saturday into Sunday. Right now, it looks to bring widespread clouds and the chance for isolated rain showers, but many of y’all shouldn’t see them.  This will be the start of a shift into a drier and warmer pattern.

But we could end up with a system and some showers and a few thunderstorms for Labor Day Monday as a warm front lifts into the region, with the front much milder air will work into the region.  On Tuesday the trailing cold front will slowly work through. Ahead of the front that southern flow will bring in even warmer air, but the air will be more humid that we’ve been seeing. The front will also bring widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe.

Thank you for taking the time to read this.

Have a great rest of your day

Is there an end in sight for this roller coaster ride?

 

I hope all the moms and those who are doing the job, had a great Mother’s Day. The weather cooperated to make a nice Sunday.

The last several weeks have seen a lot of ups and downs. This cool unsettled teeter totter pattern doesn’t look to subside for at least through mid-May, as we generally keep this persistent northwest flow out of Canada.

We had a cold front that came through that did bring some rain showers and a few thunderstorms last evening into the overnight. This was mainly for the northern Middle Atlantic and I-95 Corridor. This has now moved offshore, we’re going to see low pressure move along it, with the front there could be a few rain showers on our Monday, but the majority of these should be offshore. We have high pressure that is starting nose in from the north. This is also going to keep us cool for most of the workweek. We’re going to continue to see several fairly weak weather systems moving through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region with a few shower and thunderstorm chances. During the week.

The region is going to be especially cold for Monday night through Tuesday morning, bringing the risk for widespread late-season frosts and freezes across a large part of Pennsylvania, most of New York State and northern and central New England. Tuesday is looking Sunny but quite cool for this time of year, it’s also looking to stay dry, as the high pressure sits overhead.

We have frost watches up in Pennsylvania, the NWS hasn't issued any watches or warnings north of there, because the growing season hasn't started there yet!

Rain returns Tuesday night Wednesday, both Wednesday and Thursday will feature a lot of cloudiness and scattered rain showers. It won’t be a washout as it looks to be on and off showers. Both days also look to remain on the cooler side of average.  The rain will extend into Friday, but it looks to be much more isolated. Friday will also be trending warmer.

The upcoming weekend is looking to see the warming trend continue along with it looking to see conditions remaining drier, this will be especially true for Sunday. The ridging over the Southwest US is going to be heading our way.  This is going to be the start of the possibility for strong ridging over the Northeast for next week, this is looking to stick around for the Memorial Day Weekend. 

 

This could be the train coming out of the tunnel, leading to a start of true spring, bringing the roller coaster ride to a stop.

If you haven’t read my lasted post and thoughts on the El Nino; I encourage you to do so!

Link to the post.

That’s it for today.