Mesoscale Discussion 1423

The SPC is covering what I was talking about!  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012008Z - 012215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more bands of thunderstorms may impact portions of
   western New York through the evening hours. Trends will be
   monitored, and one or more watches are possible to address the
   potential for severe winds.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show steady
   growth and intensification of two convective clusters near the
   Ottawa, Canada region. Regional velocity data shows the early stages
   of cold pool development within the southern cluster, which further
   supports the idea of an organizing convective band. Regional VWPs
   are sampling mid-level winds on the order of 25-35 knots on the
   northern fringe of the upper-level ridge. While modest, this may
   provide sufficient deep-layer shear to promote further organization
   and downstream propagation into northern NY where MLCAPE has
   increased to around 3500 J/kg. Consequently, the potential for
   severe winds may increase in the coming hours, though exactly how
   far downstream this threat will extent remains somewhat uncertain
   given the modest deep-layer shear and poor assimilation of recent
   obs/trends by latest high-res guidance.

   Further west, the southern flank of an ongoing MCS has shown signs
   of intensification over the past 30-45 minutes per lightning counts
   and GOES IR imagery. Deep-layer wind shear generally decreases with
   southward extent towards the upper ridge, but latest MLCAPE analyses
   depict a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MI into western NY.
   Storm propagation along this gradient appears possible based on
   latest convective trends. If this continues, some severe wind threat
   may manifest across the greater Buffalo, NY region in the coming
   hours. Across both regions, convective trends will be monitored and
   watch issuance may be required.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42507890 42627912 42887917 43077912 43267901 43327877
               43367822 43317765 43287727 43367670 43607632 43827620
               44127624 44267618 44927524 45057480 45057367 44837340
               44527346 44347360 42327701 42137752 42187787 42507890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN